GBP/USD Bearish pressure below post-BoE's level

During the last week the GBP/USD pair marked highest level 1.3314 but closed almost unchanged at 1.3265. BoE surprised markets with its hawkish stance along with the change in the MPC vote, having 3 of 9 votes for rate hikes. Meanwhile the latest release of Brexit drama will probably weigh on the Sterling at tomorrow’s opening.

Technically speaking the short-term outlook for the pair remains neutral to bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing between its moving averages with current price in line with the 50-day SMA. The latest recovery was stalled by the 100-day SMA, which shows its corrective attitude. RSI has lost directional strength around its’s mid-line. Stochastic is showing strong bearish momentum and is nearing oversold territory.  

The last week’s low on post-BoE's decision is providing first support at 1.3240 with is broken to below will increase the bearish pressure and will lead the pair towards  1.3205 – 1.3170.

AUD/USD Pushed to 0.7676 and marked fresh 6-week high

The AUD/USD  pair pushed higher today extending the bullish sentiment started form May 9th. The pair surpassed the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of latest April to May bearish run and surged to daily high at 0.7676. The Australian bulls were influenced by better than expected numbers on economic growth for Q1 while the US agenda has nothing to offer but however the pair retreated slightly from the daily high along with US equities

Technically speaking the short term outlook remains neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing well above its moving averages with 20-day and 100-day SMAs aiming north and flat 200-day SMA. RSI and stochastic had eased above their mid-lines with second once one located within overbought area.

Having in mind that the pair failed to break above its daily high and directionless indicators we might see again it around the support provided by 61.8% Fibo at 0.7660. On the other hand the upcoming session will bring Australia’s AIG Performance on Construction Index for May and the April trade balance figures, which are supposed to show goodish figures  more likely will give the Aussie an additional boost. In this scenario bulls will try to fight the 0.77 level which if broken will open doors for testing 0.7740.

USD/CHF Swinging back and forth around 0.9500

After suffering sharp downfall the USD/CHF pair reversed the trend in mid February. Currently the price is hovering around the psychological 0.9500 hurdle also 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest October 2017 to February bearish run. Bulls had tried to push higher and tested several times the 0.9550 area but it seems that do not have enough power to break-out to further highs and after have been swinging back and forth returned to the sheltered area around 0.9500.

While the short term bullish outlook develops, the long term remains bearish. The Swiss Frank has taken a break, but on the other hand the greenback is gathering strength having DXY at some 90 and the upcoming Fed’s rate hike. From this viewpoint to confirm a bullish continuation the pair should leave the inhabited area and to turn it into support and fight the 0.9550 level.  

Alternatively the swing-low at 0 .9480 could open the doors for testing 0.9420 and in case this happens the bearish tonality will sound again. However I hope this undecided situation to come to an end next days having generous macro data from both sides and a new catalyst to set more clear direction.

Cable unable to keep post BoE's gains

Following Bank of England’s monetary policy decision and Carney’s speech the GBP/USD pair popped and reached daily high at 1.4066. But Sterling’s enthusiasm didn’t last long UD dollar’s bulls gained strength. As seen on the four hour time frame the rally was halted at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last week’s bearish decline, accompanied by the 100-day SMA. Further on the price dropped to 23.6 % retracement of the same rally and broke the bearish 20-day SMA. Stohastic quit its mid line and turned to south, while RSI maitains bearish slope throughout the day. Currently the pair is trading around the daily low at 1.3890, which comes as first support and in case of bleaking it to below, bears will be attracted by next one at 1.3860. 

GBP/USD BoE boosted the Pound

It’s been a quite volatile day in the markets, with the Pound occupying the centre of the stage on the back of a hawkish BoE’s policy statement. GBP/USD marked highest level since September 2016, rising up to 1.3404, with over pips from its daily low with the release outcome. It’s interesting that the greenback failed to rally, as it was expected,  despite the good news from the US as CPI is up with 0.4% month-over-month, which lifted the year-over-year rate to 1.9%.

Technically speaking the short-term trend remains bullish. On the four-hour time frame the price accelerated through its bullish 20-day SMA, which is advancing above its current level and is gaining upward strength. Indicators are located within extreme overbought territory with RSI loosing directional strength and stochastic keeping strong bullish momentum. 

Bulls are now eyeing 1.3410 with stronger challenge ta 1.3445. The downside is limited by 1.3325/30 level, a resistance turned into support. 

AUD/USD No clear directional strength

AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7907, down -0.38% for the day, having posted high at 0.7953 and daily low at 0.7898. 

However, the pair settled around 0.7940 during the European session before going down to above mentioned level as the US dollar became more attractive. This was largely weighed by the US positive data and the probability that Donald Trump could be re-assessing his tax reform plans.

On the other side, the Australia’s macro agenda has not much to offer this week, but iron ore and copper are keeping positive so this could support the Australian dollar.  

Technical readings on the four-hour time frame and not showing clear directional strength. The 20-day SMA moved few pips above the price, while the 100-day SMA is staying flat around 0.7915. Stochastic has sharply turned to south and is nearing extreme oversold territory. RSI is displaying neutral signs and has lost directional strength.

The short term outlook tend to be bearish without expectations below 0.7870, the current August low.

GBP/USD Remains under pressure

Last days the GBP/USD pair is bounded within tight range is currently is settled at 1.2876. The better than expected numbers on UK retail sales released this morning pushed the pair higher, but bulls couldn’t fight the psychological level at 1.2900. However the downward slope is still limited by the greenback’s weakness amid the political jitters in the United States. 

Technically speaking the pair remains under pressure. On the four-hour time frame the price developing below its bearish 20-day SMA. Stochastic has left its oversold area but yet is far below its mid-line and seems to be searching for clear direction. RSI is at around 36 and has lost directional strength. 

The short term outlook remains in favour of the bears with first target at 1.2840 and next at 1.2800. Looking to the upside first resistance is seen at 1.2895 and higher at 1.2930.

Aussie couldn’t fight 0.8000

During the Asian session the AUD/USD pair pushed higher and marked daily high at 0.8042, but later retreated  to lower levels and the current market price is 0.7975. Of course strong fundamentals influenced as this drop occurred right after the RBA's monetary policy announcement. The Central Bank of Australia kept the rates unchanged at 1.5% and meanwhile expressed solicitudes about the stronger Australian dollar that would press down the inflation and growth. 

Technically speaking on the four-hour time frame the Aussie is showing some bearish signals. The price has crossed to below its 20-day SMA while the 100-day SMA is keeping slight bullish slope. Stochastic has turned sharply to south and surpassed its mid-line. RSI is also bearish but is currently located around 50. 

First support is seen at 0.7935 (last week’s low) and in case of breaking it the pair will be poised to extend its decline towards 0.7875.    

GBP/USD Extended the rally to fresh yearly high

GBP/USD is still moving higher and is marking a fresh new yearly high. Today the pair is developing above 1.32 handle and had posted daily high at 1.3239. The Pound is supported by the good numbers of July’s  Markit manufacturing PMI that showed excellent export performance. 

Technically speaking, the pair is showing  strong bullish momentum on the four-hour time frame.  The price is well above its bullish moving averages. RSI and stochastic are located within extreme overbought territory but both are losing directional stregth. As currently the US dollar is very weak and is not interesting for the market players, these overbought conditions might be neglected in the short term.
Above the daily high, bulls are challenged by 1.3280 and higher by 1.33 area. Looking to downside first support is seen at 1.3190 and in case of breaking it, a corrective move might be expected around 1.3145. 

USD/JPY Found support at 61.8% Fibo

USD/JPY closed lower for consecutive week, dragging down on Friday to its lowest level for over a month at 111.00. The bad US macro data and falling US Treasury yields with the additional US political jitters helped the Japanese Yen to push higher. 

Technically speaking the pair found support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its latest upward leg (110.95). Meanwhile the price has crossed to below the 20-day SMA. Indicators on the four-hour time frame are located within extreme oversold area, nevertheless they had retreated slightly. Upward correction seems to be limited now, having in mind that the price is moving quite below its moving averages.

Anyway, next we are expecting important and major macro data that will stir the market and will set more clear direction for the pair.  

USD/JPY The recovery seems quite unlikely

The USD/JPY pair fell today to 111.55,a level that has not been visited since June 27th having on the table the current US dollar's weakness. 

Good macro data came from the United States ahead of Wall Street's

opening, but it seems is was not too good to influence the pair. 

The four-hour time frame is showing strong bearish 20-day SMA and the price is developing below the 200-day SMA, while the 100-day SMA is staying flat around 112.91. 

RSI and stochastic are located withing extreme oversold area but had lost directional strength. 

The short term outlook remains bearish. 

First support is seen at 111.53 (the daily low) and next at 111.60. Looking to the upside, the pair challenged by 112.30 and higher at 112.70.

USD/JPY nears its 61.8% Fibo

It was an interesting day for the USD/JPY today, as the Japanese yen gained momentum, boosted by the consolidation in equity prices in negative territory in Wall Street amid the treasuries recovery.

The pair is currently trading at 110.78 and is about to close the day below the key level at 111.00, that has not been visited for the past two weeks. 

On the four-hour time frame the 20-day SMA has turned sharply to south, while the price is standing well below the 100-day and 200-day SMAs that are staying flat and are loosing directional strength.

RSI and stochastic are located far form their mid-lines and are displaying bearish momentum.

Immediate support is seen at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of latest up leg (110.50) and in case of breaking it to below, next bears’ target is seen at 110.20 (May 18th’s low) and this would confirm short term downwards movement. 

Aussie meets strong resistance at 0.7500

Commodities currencies are best performers this Monday along with Aussie extending up to 0.7488, highest level seen since May 3rd.  It’s an important level to consider as staying slightly below 0.7500 and it’s an area defined by 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest March to May decline together with the upper line of descending trend line. 

The immediate upside momentum is seized by the this threshold. Temporary support  is lying at  the overnight lows having in mind possible close below 0.7385, that would put back the downtrend on the table.

Aussie is approaching key resistance confluence and we should focus on the 0.7429 – 0.7490 range, but upside is capped by the  61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7589 of above mentioned decline. 

The economic calendar has nothing to offer during the upcoming session, but the positive momentum in equities and commodities will possibly drive Aussie gains. 

However, the we should focus  on the structural resistance that is heading towards  0.7500 mark  ans in case of breach, there would be more meaningful breakout in the pair.

Loonie skyrocketed and marked 14-month high

The weak oil market and US threat to impose 20% tariffs on Canada’s soft-wood lumber exports set USD/CAD under huge pressure, but bulls seem to had found enough courage and the pair skyrocketed towards 1.3614, having posted an impressive rallied and marked a 14-month high.
The four-hour time frame is showing mixed signs for short term development. RSI is located within overbought territory at 73, stochastic has reached extreme levels, but has started to turn south, while the 20-day SMA is keeping bullish, which is suggesting slight decline during the day.

Therefor we must take into consideration the very important 1.3600 level (December 28th’s high) and in case of closing above it, the bullish tend is about to continue in longer term with next target seen at 1.3670.

XAU/USD higher

The implementation of Trump's politics is leaving lumpy tracks and is providing uncertainty on markets, which should be considered as an important upside risk for gold. The confidence in the U.S. economy is seen boosted but with no clear and real actions and stronger hard data. The market sentiment might shift and lead the risky assets lower, while supporting the ultimate safe haven.

Last week Gold moved up significantly higher, closed at $1286.65 but has entered in consolidation mood ahead of Easter Holidays. 

Technical indicators on the four-hour time frame are showing extreme overbought conditions. RSI is located at 70 level and is indicating bullish momentum. Stochastic has retreated from the extreme overbought area, but yet is above 80 mark. 

Gold has stopped its upward way below $1300, but it is very likely bulls to continue their march after the holidays. 

Strong resistance is located at $1307 and this level should be considered as a possible short term exhaustion point. 

Trumpicious uncertainties, hilarious models and the golden rally

After eight years of being the First Lady of the United States, Senator of New York for eight years, and Secretary of State for four, Hillary Clinton added „fashion muse” and „footwear model” to her highly important titles list, thanks to Katy Perry, who designed a pair of pumps in her honor. The pop star posted a genuine image of Mrs Clinton to her social media’s time line, captioned „POWER PUMP”.
While the ex First Lady models, the ex model and the current First Lady will be pumped up with somewhere about  $2.9 million by Daily Mail, but it’s not that thing that will pump up the power of her authority. The British media has apologized to Melania Trump and agreed to pay damages to settle a lawsuit filed by the First Lady after having published some false claims about her work as a professional model.

Apart from these models’ excitements Mr Trump is shuffling on the geopolitical scene, having revealed five different policies in two weeks and his administration is struggling to articulate a clear plan for Syria. The last released on 10th of April left the markets with no other choice except turning to safe havens, during this time of uncertainty. 

And basically the uncertainty is a very good thing for Gold, the best performer for the week, having shined more with $19.60 up yesterday. In my humble opinion we have three reasons to explain the golden rally - geopolitical tensions, uncertainty, matching up with where it should have been trading long ago.

Ahead of Ester, be calm, live happily in this complicated world, be good to yourselves and be careful with above mentioned uncertainty, because Gold is approaching critical resistance at $1278.