USD/CHF Is facing near-term bearish breakdown

The USD/CHF pair looks to weaken today and follows the decline from Thursday. As seen on the four hour time frame the pair is down with 0.07% for the day and the price is developing below the flat moving averages. But on the other hand, RSI and stochastic are showing strong bullish momentum and both are close to their mid-lines. The ongoing downfall might be considered as a short-term bearish breakdown, despite the technical indicators.  

The downside remains supported by the 0.9900 handle, which if broken will open the door for further weakness towards the 0.9850 level and then 0.9800. The upside is providing resistance at 0.9950, followed by the 1.0000 psychological level.  All in all, the USD/CHF pair is facing further downside pressure.

USD/CHF Losing upside momentum

USD/CHF is losing upside momentum and yesterday slid below the ascending channel that has started from April 7^th.  The price reached bottom at 0.9993 but closed higher at 1.0027 and thus moved back into the price channel. But as seen on the hourly chart today the pair reversed the trend and yesterday’s bottom and intraday support at 0.9930, which is located just above the hourly  200-day EMA, was tested again. RSI and stochastic are located within extreme oversold areas, but yet there is room for further declines. A clear break and a daily/weekly closure below it will disrupt the upward phase. Then the cross will meet next  support at the 0.9845 (January high). 

USD/CHF Swinging back and forth around 0.9500

After suffering sharp downfall the USD/CHF pair reversed the trend in mid February. Currently the price is hovering around the psychological 0.9500 hurdle also 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest October 2017 to February bearish run. Bulls had tried to push higher and tested several times the 0.9550 area but it seems that do not have enough power to break-out to further highs and after have been swinging back and forth returned to the sheltered area around 0.9500.

While the short term bullish outlook develops, the long term remains bearish. The Swiss Frank has taken a break, but on the other hand the greenback is gathering strength having DXY at some 90 and the upcoming Fed’s rate hike. From this viewpoint to confirm a bullish continuation the pair should leave the inhabited area and to turn it into support and fight the 0.9550 level.  

Alternatively the swing-low at 0 .9480 could open the doors for testing 0.9420 and in case this happens the bearish tonality will sound again. However I hope this undecided situation to come to an end next days having generous macro data from both sides and a new catalyst to set more clear direction.

USD/CHF Above 0.9500

The power awakens for the US dollar while the single currency suffered huge drop today. As it was expected the ECB kept the interest rate unchanged but removed from the statement the phrase of needing to extend QE if conditions worsen. The euro retreated from its recent location and dragged the Swiss franc lower.

But at this time the USD/CHF broke the resistance at 0.9470 and pinned fresh new high at 0.9518 and currently is trading at 0.9415. On the four hour time frame the price is developing well above its moving averages. RSI and stochastic are located within extreme overbought areas and both are showing strong upward momentum.

Next significant territory for the pair is 0.9570 which if bulls succeed to conquer will be eyeing the key level at 0.9600 and higher around 0.9650.