GBP/USD Dovish BoE brought bearish sentiment

BoE raised its interest rate today for the second time since the financial crisis in 2008 amid a strong labor market, high inflation and growing concerns about Brexit. The Bank of England's nine-member monetary policy committee voted unexpectedly unanimously to raise the interest rate from 0.50 percent to 0.75 percent, which is the highest level since March 2009.
On this news the GBP/USD reacted with huge drop, losing 0.65% and marked daily low at 1.3045. The pair succeed to bounce from the low and currently is trading at 1.3058.
Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains neutral to bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing  below its slow bearish moving averages. RSI is showing strong downward momentum and is nearing 30 level. Stochastic has retreated from its extreme negative readings but has eased around 20.  
However to bring back the bullish mode the pair will need to fight first 1.3165 and next 1.3215 and eventually 1.3245. On the other hand bears will need to regain the 1.3000 handle in order to drive the pair down towards 1.2957 (the 2018 low).

The British bears are rolling in the deep

Druging the past two weeks the Cable was developoing above the crytical suppor area at 1.3500 but even the uplifted mood that brought the royal wedding couldn’t keep it over there until today. This mornign the USD/GBP pair plummeted and pinned fresh new 2018 low at 1.3390 as a new episode from the Brexit saga was released. The bearish break was fueled by the that Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon who  pledged to restart a drive for Scottish independence.

As seen on the four hour time frame the price abandoned its latest range and now is developing well below its bearish moving averages. RSI and stochastic are starting to bounce from their lowest levels but yet remian below their mid-line and seems taht are looking for direction.

However the British bears are now ruling the trend. Breaking the key support at 1.3500 is of significant importance as this is a historical level, being attarating the bears since January 2009. So from here we might expect test of 1.3320 area and the creation of new yearly low.

GBP/USD Consolidating ahead of BoE’s decision

The GBP/USD pair bounced modestly from the multi-month lows at 1.3480 but yet bulls are not strong enough to reverse the trend despite the US dollar lost ground after Trump's decision to withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal. Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains neutral to bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its 100-day and 200-day SMAs, although is trying to break above the 20-day SMA, which is also bearish. RSI escaped from the oversold area but yet remains below its mid-line. Stochastic is giving initial sighs for U-turn and currently is located at 40. The limited upward potential can not offer much, so the GBP/USD pair is more likely to remain in consolidation phase within tight range between 1.3480 and 1.3600 until BOE's decision on Thursday. 

Cable is under pressure

GBP/USD dropped below the 1.4300 handle after having posted a fresh multi-month high at 1.4375 . The macro agenra today served disappointing UK earnings numbers which contributed to the suffering of the Sterling.

During the last two weeks the Cable performed excellent and rallied from 1.3965 to 1.4375 (the intraday high) and during this period we witnessed higher highs and higher lows. 

Technically speaking the short term outlook remain neutral to bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing above its moving averages, having bullish 20-day SMA and slow turning to flat 100-day and 200-day SMAs. RSI has eased its downward slope and currently is located at 58, having a break to look for direction. Stochastic is showing strong bearish momentum and is nearing oversold territory.

As seen on the same chart the pair continues falling and surpassed last week’s high at 1.4344 which brings a signal for deeper pullback.

On the other hand, dips could be limited as Sterling remains backed up by the expectations of BoE’s rate hike on policy meeting next month.

However the pullback could meet strong support at 1.4244 (late March’s highs) and ex long term resistance that should keep intact overall bulls.

Tomorrow will bring the next key event for the Cable with the release of UK inflation data which could provide fresh direction signal.

GBP/USD On a new channel to the upside

GBP/USD broke key levels and is nearing 1.4000 hurdle as the US dollar started to slide after the US inflation figures and the following political jitters on the replacement of the Secretary of State.

Thereupon and the lack of macro events in UK for tomorrow is uplifting the Cable to its highest level in over two weeks. The UK bulls were seen flirting with the 1.40 level but obviously are a little bit hesitant as currently the pair is trading at 1.3967.

Technically speaking the short term outlook remains bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing within an ascendant channel, having stalled close to the upside of it. Also the pair succeeded to cross to above its moving averages, which are looking for direction. RSI and stochastic are located within strong overbought areas but both are strating to lose strength. 

Given all above the Cable is likely to push above 1.4000 and just technically this point converges with the upper side of the channel.

Cable cracked 1.40, but consolidation is expected before next upleg

Early in the day Cable broke the 1.40 handle and even succeeded to mark daily high at 1.4026. A pullback followed but currently the price is not far from the psychological level at 1.40.

On the four hour time frame the price continues to develop above its bullish SMAs and today’s lowest level found support at the 20-day SMA. Indicators on the same chart are yet located within positive territory, but are losing upward strength. Today’s rally is impressive as GBP/USD reached June 23 in 2016, the time of Brexit decision, but more important for the continuation of the bullish trend is a close above 1.40. I think that the bulls will take a breath before tackling higher challenges, so in the short term the Cable will be seen in consolidation mode. 

GBP/USD Shuffled by Brexit headlines, but keeps gains

The GBP/USD is see higher today and marked a two and half  week high at 1.3279 during the early London session, amid the German political concerns and stronger Pound on PM May’s plans to move Brexit talks into second phase. Later on the day pair sharply retreated from the mentioned high and is currently trading at 1.3234. On the four hour time frame the price is moving above its moving averages, having bullish 20-day SMA, which to above the  100-day and 200-day SMAs, both keeping flat stance. Stochastic is showing strong bearish momentum and RSI has turned to north, but both are well above their mid-lines. The short term outlook remains neutral to bullish. Should the pair jump above 1.3260, next bulls’ target will be the key level at 1.3300. 

Cable up ahead of BOE

Having no particular reason today the GBP/USD pair is seen uplifted and leaving the tight range from the past several sessions. One thing is sure, the spirit level is higher ahead of BOE’s rate decision on Thursday, when the first rate hike from a decade is expected. The Central bankers are going to rise the rates by 25 basic points on the back up of resilient post-Brexit UK economy.
The GBP/USD is trading up with 0.29% for the day with current market price 1.3245.
From technical point of view, the short term outlook is neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price has crossed to above the 20-day and 100-day SMA, while the 200-day SMA is staying flat and is acting as a dynamic resistance around 1.33 level. Stochastic is located withing extreme overbought territory, but has lost directional strength. RSI is marking higher highs and lowers lows and is aiming north.
Having in mind above, bulls are well supported, but first will have to conquer the immediate resistance at 1.3275 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of early October bullish run) with next target on the psychological level 1.3300.  

GBP/USD No clrear directional bias

The Sterling is trading slightly changed today against the US dollar following the UK inflation numbers for September, meeting markets expectations. During the early European session the GBP/USD pair marked daily high at 1.3285, but retreated lower to currently trade at 1.3255.

On the four hour time frame the price has crossed to below its 20-day SMA, which turned flat yesterday. Meanwhile the pair now is being stalled at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest October bullish run at 1.3266. Indicators on the same chart are showing mixed signs. RSI is located around its mid-line and has lost directional strength. Stochastic has turned sharply to south and is visiting its extreme oversold territory.

First support is seen around 1.3220 (38.2% of same Fibonacci retracement) and in case of decisive break below it, bears would be likely to test next 1.3120 (the past week’s low). Looking to the upside, immediate resistance is the 1.3310 level and in case of conquering, bulls would try to march higher towards 1.3334, where Friday’s high provides the next resistance.

Next on focus is the BoE’s Governor Carney speech, who will give more clear information on the further interest rates outlook. So let's see how the pair will develop further for the day on the back of the reversed rally ahead of this event.

GBP/USD Close to the key support at 1.1300

Political uncertainties in UK, boosted US data and ECB’s meeting minutes dragged the GBP/USD pair its lowest level for over a month. The pair surpassed the September low and is currently trading at 1.3122 and continues to fall deeper as the time of writing. According to the four hour time frame it seems that the bearish momentum is accelerating whit next target at 1.3100 level. The 200-day SMA is about to cross to above the bearish 20-day SMA. Indicators are located within negative territory with stochastic at its bottom, while RSI is currently at 17, but has lost directional strength. The price is now developing below its moving averages and in case the pair break below 1.3100, the bears would be poised to extend their march towards 1.3075.

GBP/USD Stuck around 50% Fibo

The GBP/USD pair accelerated its downward trajectory and today fell to lowest level for the last two weeks, led by the stronger US dollar after the Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech last night. 

The pair found support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of it latest September up leg and now is trading at the 50% of same bullish run at 1.3340. 

On the four hour time frame the price is moving below its 20-day SMA, which is gaining downward momentum. RSI and stochastic had slightly recovered from their extreme oversold territories but yet remain well below their mid-lines with lack of directional strength.

The pair is facing strong resistance at 1.3460 (38.2% of above mentioned Fibonacci retracement) and in case of breaking it, bulls will meet next one at 1.35 handle. 

But from the current levels GBP/USD might test again the immediate support at 1.3340 (61.8% Fibo) and having a poor macroeconomic calender along with greenback’s strength, we might expect a breakout towards the 1.3320 – 1.3300 area.

GBP/USD Lower

The GBP/USD pair retreated from Friday’s high after Carney’s speech at the IMF and lost more than 200 pips today. The reversal technically is reasonable after the double top pattern at 1.3617, clearly seen on the four hour time frame. RSI and stochastic are moving away from the extreme overbought territory,where entered during the BoE rally, but yet remain above their mid-lines. Meanwhile the 20-day SMA is keeping its bullish slope, but the price is nearing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of its latest upleg, which is acting as immediate support around 1.3420. 

From fundamental point of view, the agenda has nothing to offer from UK and now FOMC comes on sight. But having in mind that Fed’s rate hike is old  news, markets more likely will be attracted by the extravagance of BoE. 

GBP/USD BoE boosted the Pound

It’s been a quite volatile day in the markets, with the Pound occupying the centre of the stage on the back of a hawkish BoE’s policy statement. GBP/USD marked highest level since September 2016, rising up to 1.3404, with over pips from its daily low with the release outcome. It’s interesting that the greenback failed to rally, as it was expected,  despite the good news from the US as CPI is up with 0.4% month-over-month, which lifted the year-over-year rate to 1.9%.

Technically speaking the short-term trend remains bullish. On the four-hour time frame the price accelerated through its bullish 20-day SMA, which is advancing above its current level and is gaining upward strength. Indicators are located within extreme overbought territory with RSI loosing directional strength and stochastic keeping strong bullish momentum. 

Bulls are now eyeing 1.3410 with stronger challenge ta 1.3445. The downside is limited by 1.3325/30 level, a resistance turned into support. 

GBP/USD Retreated from a month high

Since yesterday the GBP/USD pair keep advancing and today nailed fresh one-month high at 1.3081, a level that has not been visited since August 4th. After retreating later to lower level with current market price 1.3043, the pair succeded to hold gains at the end of the session amid the lack of macro news from UK.  

On the four-hour time frame the pair is advancing beyond its bullish 20-day SMA, which has crossed to above the 200-day EMA. Stochastic has retreated from the overbought territory, but yet maintains extreme values, while RSI is hovering around 70 and has lost directional strength. 

To confirm certain return of the bulls, the pair must fight the key resistance located at 1.3080 with scope to test next 1.3150.

GBP/USD Remains under pressure

Last days the GBP/USD pair is bounded within tight range is currently is settled at 1.2876. The better than expected numbers on UK retail sales released this morning pushed the pair higher, but bulls couldn’t fight the psychological level at 1.2900. However the downward slope is still limited by the greenback’s weakness amid the political jitters in the United States. 

Technically speaking the pair remains under pressure. On the four-hour time frame the price developing below its bearish 20-day SMA. Stochastic has left its oversold area but yet is far below its mid-line and seems to be searching for clear direction. RSI is at around 36 and has lost directional strength. 

The short term outlook remains in favour of the bears with first target at 1.2840 and next at 1.2800. Looking to the upside first resistance is seen at 1.2895 and higher at 1.2930.

GBP/USD At 38.2% Fibo

The macro data released today in UK failed to set clear direction for GBP/USD and the pair is seen in consolidation mode around 1.3000 handle. 

UK's Industrial Production rose above the expected 0.5% inter-month during June and 0.3% on an annualised basis, but manufacturing came in flat on a monthly basis, advancing  by 0.6% over the last 12 months, which met the market's expectations. 

Additionally the UK’s trade balance figures showed that the trade deficit widened by £2.0 billion to £4.6 billion in June. 

Ahead of the release of the NSIER GDP estimate, the cable marked intraday high at 1.3014 and respectively low at 1.2951. The current market price is 1.30, exactly at 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest June to August bullish run. 

On the four-hour time frame the price is moving below its bearish 20-day SMA, while the 200-day SMA has crossed it to above. Indicators are slightly below there mid-lines with stochastic  heading north and RSI with lack of directional strength. 

The pair is facing first resistance at 1.3010 and eventual break will open doors for testing 1.3050. Looking to downside, critical level is the daily low at 1.2951. 

GBP/USD Facing downside risk on corrective pullbacks

The GBP/USD pair continues to keep its downside pressure, regardless of the greenback’s faintness and the less attractive Pound. The macroeconomic agenda has nothing to offer until Thursday  and the more important event will be next Friday, when the US inflation numbers will be released. So no dramatic movements are expected and the pair will keep its sideways course.
On the four-hour time frame the price continues to develop below its bearish 20-day SMA. RSI and stochastic are located within oversold territory but both had lost directional strength.
The intraday support is located around the level of the 200-day SMA – 1.3000 and in case of breaking it to below, next bears’ target will be 1.2950. Looking to the upside, first resistance is seen at 1.3100 with a advance beyond here additional gains up to 1.1330 – 1.1350 are expected.  
Generally in the short term the cable will keep facing downside risk on corrective pullbacks.