EUR/USD Downside pressure is increasing after dovish ECB

The EUR/USD pair turned sharply to the downside, retracing from closer to weekly highs and weakened further below the 1.1700 mark after the latest ECB monetary policy update with  Draghi reaffirming to hold interest rates steady through the summer of 2019.
Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its flat moving averages. RSI is located slightly below its mid-line and has lost directional strength. Stochastic is showing strong bearish momentum and is nearing negative territory.

Currently the pair is trading at 1.1656, but the huge selling pressure might drag the pair towards the 1.1600 handle, which if broken to below will open doors for testing next support lines at 1.1575 and 1.1535.  Looking to the upside, 1.1700 remains a resistance hard to achieve, but in case of any bullish attempts next target is provided by 1.1725 and 1.1745.

EUR/USD Quiet ahead of ECB

Fed-related negative mood from late last week keeps holding most majors. EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1700 and currently has settled at 1.1687. The pair continues trading within tight range with no clear clues. On the four hour time frame the price is developing above its flat moving averages. RSI has lost directional strength and is located around its mid-line. Stochastic has turned sharply to downside and is showing strong bearish momentum. Bulls continue the fight for the 1.1700 level although the selling pressure remains strong between 1.1750 and 1.1720. The downside remains supported by 1.1685 and lower at 1.1650. Most likely the big movement will come on Thursday, when the ECB has its monetary policy meeting.

EUR/USD Forming triangle pattern

The single currently pressured the 1.1600 level in the early trading hours as the US dollar gathered strength on the outlook for the US economy presented by the US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell in Congress as well as by Kansas City Fed President George. Both officials shared opinion that the US economy is expected to remain strong with employment and inflation rising that justifies the gradual monetary policy normalisation with rates going higher.
As seen on the daily chart since mid June the EUR/USD pair is consolidating below the 1.1800 handle and above the resistance turned то support which is the top of the two-year range.
On the same chart the price is currently forming a triangle pattern,тhat often comes before the trend continuation,but having in mind the previous drops bring bearish implications. In case of closing below the triangle bottom, doors are opened for testing the support zone at 1.1520 – 1.1570.

EUR/USD in quiet consolidation

This week the EUR/USD pair is quite shy and is not showing any spectacular movements as did last week. Honestly the pair is seen in quiet consolidation and caught within tight range between 1.1526 and 1.1600. In fact markets have nothing interesting to offer today but the greenback however keeps its multy months highs. 

Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains neutral to bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its flat moving averages. RSI has eased around its 43 level while stochastic is showing good upward strength slightly above its mid-line. 

First resistance is provided by the dynamic 20-day SMA currently being at 1.1590 and next one comes with 1.1645, the weekly high. Looking to the downside the pair yet remains vulnerable for further decline is closing below 1.1550. And if so, I expect bears to test 1.1510 which level if broke would open doors for 1.1460.

EUR/USD Approaching 38.2% Fibo

The EUR/USD pair is performing excellent during the last four sessions keeping the uptrend and today surged to 1.1837, the highest level since late April. The bullish mode is supported by the QE easing hopes with upcoming ECB meeting next week. On the other hand the greenback is losing strength on latest Trumponomics release concerning the start of several countermeasures which will bring slowdown of economic growth.

Technically speaking the short term outlook remains neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing above its bullish 20-day SMA, which crossed to above the flat 100-day SMA.

The 200-day SMA currently coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest April to May bearish run at 1.1855 representing the main bullish target. RSI is keeping upward slope around 65 level. Stochastic has entered into extreme overbought area but had eased around 90. 

As mentioned above the first and main target for the bulls is provided by the 38.2% Fibo at 1.1855 and eventual breakthrough will drag the pair towards next challenge at 1.1960 (the 50% Fibo of same retracement).

EUR/USD On wait and see mode ahead of US CPI

The greenback has paused its recent rally ahead of the core U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data today. Signs of above target numbers may push FOMC to take more aggressive approach on monetary policy.
US inflation is the key event for today and EUR/USD has turned on wait and see mode. The pair is trading undisturbed around 1.1880. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its bearish moving averages and currently is trying to break to above the 20-day SMA. RSI and stochastic had retreated from their oversold areas and both are showing good upward strength although are yest below their mid-lines.
EUR/USD might generate a rebound, according to indicators on the same chart, but only if advancing above 1.1900. Then this could be considered as a corrective recovery with next targets 1.1950 and the psychological 1.1200 mark. On the other hand the pair stands at risk for further declines with a break and close below the 1.1810 - 1.1790 area. 

EUR/USD Testing critical support

The ECB monetary policy meeting and the following press conference brought nothing new on the table except increased volatility. The interest rate remains unchanged and no signs of any timetable for ending the current bond buying program were given. The expected steps are postponed to June and until then the single currency will be dragged by the stronger US dollar.

The EUR/USD pair fell today to its lowest level since January and marked intraday low at 1.2195. As seen on the four hour time frame the price is developing well below its bearish moving averages. RSI and stochastic and located within negative territories but yet there is room for further decline. 

The pair tested major support but succeeded to bounce and currently is trading slightly above it at 1.2106. The 1.2100 level is considered as extremely significant due to the fact that it represents highs from 2015 and 2017. On one hand this could be good turning point with possible further move towards 1.2155 and then 1.2200. But on the other hand breaking below it would open doors for steeper decline with initial target the psychological 1.2000 handle.

EUR/USD Aiming 1.2400 ahead of FOMC's Minutes

The EUR/USD pair continues to march higher today and almost reached the 1.2400 hurdle ahead of the release of US inflation figures, which as expected came out with Core CPI at 2.1% in March, up from 1.8% in February. 

Technically speaking the short term outlook remain neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing well above its moving averages. Currently the bullish 20-day SMA is crossing to above the flat 100-day and 200-day SMAs , which are providing support around around 1.2320 area. RSI and stochastic are showing overbought market but both had eased and seems that are looking for direction.

First target for the bulls comes with the 1.2400 level and next is 1.2320. On case of conquering doors are opened for testing 1.2475 area. On the flip side below the pair is supported by the above mentioned SMAs.

Next on the agenda is the release of the latest FOMC Minutes with expectation of no significant surprises, but it’ll be interesting to observe how the pair will react.

EUR/USD Hesitant around 1.24

EUR/USD jumped over the psychological hurdle at 1.2400 having marked 0.51% up for the day and currently is trading at 1.2405. The pair took advantage of the talks on North Korea’s denuclearization and ignored the political concerns in Italy. 

Technically speaking the short term outlook remains neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing above its bullish 20-day SMA, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are staying flat around respectively 1.2330 and 1.2344. RSI is showing strong upward momentum and is nearing the overbought area. Stochastic is located within positive territory but had eased around its 80 level. 

To confirm the bullish bias the pair will have to be more decisive and break through the resistance and ex support  at 1.2450. Otherwise some consolidation is expected before next big catalyzer. 

The downside is supported by 1.2360 followed by a strong support around 1.2270 (the post Italian elections low).

EUR/USD Hesistant at support area 1.2205–1.2170

The post-Powell sentiment weight down the single currency, which anyway suffered Tuesday after weak German inflation numbers. The EUR/USD continues to fall today, breaking though the key support line at 1.2205 (the February low) and now is pressuring the 32.8% Fibonacci retracement of latest October to February  bullish run at 1.2170.
On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its moving averages. Since yesterday the 20-day SMA has turned to downwards, while the 100-day and 200-day SMA had slowed around 1.23 and are providing dynamic resistance. RSI is acting quite undecided around its 30 level and stochastic is located within extreme negative territory with no sighs for recovery.  
The hesitation of both indication can bring the pair hovering around the support area 1.2205 – 1.2170. But if bears have no reason to feel comfortable in this zone, may try to move to the south by testing the January’s low at 1.2164 which if broken will provide next target at 1.2100.

 

EUR/USD Lower

The US dollar resumed gains today supported by the rising US treasury yields. The EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.23189 but found support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest January to February bullish run. 

The pair bounced few pips higher and currently is trading at 1.2335. The recovery is quite unsustainable as the pair failed to fight back the 23.6% of same Fibo retracement from where hesitated last Friday.

On the four hour time frame the price crossed to below its 20-day bearish SMA and the flat 100-day SMA. RSI is located around 38 and has lost directional strength. Stochastic bounced from its extreme negative territory but yet remains below 20.

According to above readings the short term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish. 

First support is provided by the 200-day SMA at 1.23 and next at 1.2270. Looking to the upside resistance is seen at 1.2380 (the flat 100-day SMA) and higher at 1.2400.

EUR/USD Bulls are unstoppable

US January inflation release triggered furore on the financial markets. DJIA was around 500 points down ahead of Wall Street opening, the greenback soared and the EUR/USD pair conquered the 1.2400 level.

As seen on the four hour time frame the pair found support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of January bullish run considering that last week twice bottomed at the 50% Fibo of same rally and the current market price is above 23.6%.

Bulls are marching above the moving averages and all of them are keeping bullish slopes. RSI is showing strong upward momentum but eased very close to 70. Stochastic has retreated from its extreme overbought readings in the Asian session and now is back above 80. 

During the upcoming sessions the EUR/USD pair will find resistance at 1.2480 (last Monday’s high) and in case of breaking it next challenge will come with 1.2535 (January’s high). 

EUR/USD Surged higher despite Draghi’s attempts to talk down the euro

The most important macro event this week brought nothing new, as Mario & Co left the monetary policy unchanged as it was expected. Mr Draghi pointed out that recent and increased volatility in the forex market is source of uncertainty, with little chances for interest rate hike this year. However this event resulted very positive to the EUR/USD and the pair surpassed the 1.25 handle for first time since mid December 2014. In fact Draghi’s attempts to talk down the single currency failed as its strength now is die to the solid domestic economic and the broad US Dollar’s weakness.  

EUR/USD extended  its impressive rally that started in January 2018 and today marked daily high at 1.2537 but pulled back to currently trade at 1.2482. The short term outlook for the pair remains bullish and a close above 1.25 would open doors for testing the 1.2540 – 1.2550 region.

EUR/USD Bears are aiming 1.1875

EUR/USD dropped today and marked a two week low at 1.1915, a level that has not been visited since late December and down with 0.30% for the day.

The greenback’s rally is shuffling now. The strength given by Fed's speakers yesterday do not weight today as softer than expected macro data put an halt on US dollar’s demand.

EUR/USD was pressured by the initial support provided by th 50% Fibonacci retracement of last week’s bullish run at 1.1903. As seen on the four hour time frame the pair bounced of this support and is currently trading at 1.1933. However on the same chart the 20-day SMA has turned sharply to south and the price is developing well below it. RSI and stochastic are located within extreme oversold territories and both have lost directional strength.  

Additional declines are expected toward the 61.8% retracement of same rally (1.1875) in case the pair returns back to 50% Fibo, coinciding with the 100-day SMA .

EUR/USD Fed’s hike is pushing the pair towards 1.1800

After a two day meeting the FOMC finally announce its widely expected decision to hike the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the target range of 1.25% - 1.50%. Following this the greenback lost its momentum and the EUR/USD pair was seen uplifted to currently trade at 1.1790 and seems that is climbing towards 1.1800. 

On the four hour time frame the price has crossed to above its 20-day SMA, which is starting to turn north, while the 100-day and the 200-day SMAs are still staying flat and are proving good resistance and support levels, respectively at 1.1830 and 1.1750. RSI and stochastic had turned sharply to overbought areas and are displaying strong bullish momentum. 

However first hurdle to the upside is seen at 1.1815 and in case euro bulls fight it, doors will be opened for testing the 1.1835.  

EUR/USD To make or break

During the past week EUR/USD continued to develop between the April bullish trend line and the September bearish one. As seen on the daily chart the price touched, but couldn’t break the support provided by the first trend line and meanwhile is standing well above November’s low.the levels of support around 1.1800 were tested and were broken, but more significant challenge is the area around 1.1720 – 1.1730, because there is confluence of horizontal and trend-line support. So this is the place for pair to make it or break it.

On the same chart the 20-day SMA and 100-day SMA are staying flat above the current price movement and are providing resistance at 1.1800 – 1.1825, while the 200-day SMA is keeping bullish stance. RSI is located around 45 and has lost directional strength. Stochastic is displaying strong bearish momentum and is nearing extreme negative territory.

However the upcoming week will determine whether the bottom line would be under occupation of the bears or euro bulls would fight it.   

EUR/USD Remains bearish ahead of NFP

The EUR/USD pair continues to suffer and today extend its decline to 1.775 with current market price 1.1777. The marco agenda today counld’t affect much the pair’s behavior as NFP day tomorrow will provide larger impact. And having ECB and Fed meetings next week we will witness really thrilling development on the pair.

On the four hour time frame the price is situated below flat 100-day SMA and bearish 20-day SMA, while the 200-day SMA is keeping neutral stance and is provide support at 1.1745. RSI is located within negative territory and is showing bearish momentum. Stochastic is displaying extreme oversold conditions, below 20 level and has lost directional strength.

With US Senate intending to extend the debt ceiling and avoid a government shutdown and US dollar might add some fuel, otherwise the pair is poised to extend its decline towards the support at 1.1715, having the expectations of NFP tomorrow. 

EUR/USD The Force is strong with this one

Along the long road and on down the causeway. That’s what happens with the EUR/USD pair lately. But the force awakened for the bulls and the battlefield around 1.70 area was successfully beaten. At a higher altitude, with flag unfurled and a new conquest at 1.1960 today. But a retreatment we witnessed and currently hovering around 1.1900 the pair is. 

Despite the modest pullback it’s unlikely to watch again the attack of the cloned bears. The four hour time galaxy is showing above moving averages price moving. RSI and stochastic had slightly retreated from their extreme overbought orbits, but yet remain within positive readings. Lack of faith disturbing for bears is, 1.1890 level where the Force is strong with. Clearer clues for the pair there are with pre-ECB’s levels and upcoming inflation figures from both major planets within the forex empire.
May the force be with your trading!

EUR/USD Thanksgiving dollar supports euro bulls

EUR/USD printed fresh top at 1.1855 today, having the thanksgiving US dollar, yet suffering from the FOMC's Minutes release. Meanwhile the single currency was so much supported by the November preliminary PMIs, showing better than expected numbers, that couldn’t react to ECB minutes. The pair stayed firm and keeps surfing at the upper edge of its latest trend.

Technically speaking the EUR/USD pair is keeping its short term bullish outlook. On the four hour time the price is situated well above its moving averages, having bullish 20-day SMA, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs had slowed down. RSI and stochastic had turned sharply to north and reached the extreme overbought territories, but currently eased and are looking for direction. 

Should the pair cross the 1.1860 level (mid November’s high), then the interest will lead to 1.1890. Looking to the downside, first hurdle is seen at 1.1830  and lower at 1.1790. 

EUR/USD Flirting with 1.1700 level ahead of NFP

The greenback gathered momentum in the US session after the better than expected US data and the hawkish tone from the Fed’s speakers. Adding to the big picture the ECB's meeting minutes which hit the single currency, the EUR/USD pair was seen gravitating around 1.1700 level. On the four hour time frame the price has crossed to below its bearish 20-day SMA, while the 200-day SMA has moved above the 100-day SMA (also bearish). Stochastic has turned sharply to south and is displaying strong bearish momentum. RSI is starting to recover from the extreme oversold territory and is currently located at 35. Ahead of NFP tomorrow the pair is vulnerable to extend its decline in case of strong numbers.