EUR/USD in quiet consolidation

This week the EUR/USD pair is quite shy and is not showing any spectacular movements as did last week. Honestly the pair is seen in quiet consolidation and caught within tight range between 1.1526 and 1.1600. In fact markets have nothing interesting to offer today but the greenback however keeps its multy months highs. 

Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains neutral to bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its flat moving averages. RSI has eased around its 43 level while stochastic is showing good upward strength slightly above its mid-line. 

First resistance is provided by the dynamic 20-day SMA currently being at 1.1590 and next one comes with 1.1645, the weekly high. Looking to the downside the pair yet remains vulnerable for further decline is closing below 1.1550. And if so, I expect bears to test 1.1510 which level if broke would open doors for 1.1460.

USD/JPY Develops within ascendant channel

The last release of Japan’s economic growth showed weak figures and blurred the lines of Abenomics reforms, and of course reduced the likelihood of tightening the BoJ’s monetary policy in the near future. Technically speaking this weakness supported the US bulls who are already gaining strength during the last sessions. The USD/JPY today attacked the February’s high and currently is trading slightly above the 200-day SMA at 110.36. As seen on the daily chart the price is developing within the current bullish channel, that has started from late March. RSI and stochastic are showing strong upward momentum and are close to overbought areas. Meanwhile the pair is located fairly in middle of the channel, so now we should consider both the upside and down side. Reversals would  be supported by the lower bound of the channel, which currently comes at 109.40. On the other hand the more likely scenario is bullish continuation towards the resistance at 110.40, which is broken to above would open doors for testing the upper channel’s bound at 111.40.

GBP/USD Fighting the 1.3900 area

“Market volatility won’t stop more rate hikes” said the new Fed chair Powell in his first testimonial statement. Of course this sentence boosted the greenback and further on was  concreted by the upbeat US consumer confidence data. On the other hand the Sterling is suffering and came under huge selling pressure on the latest episode of Brexit drama and significant differences on the transition deal.

Amid these fundamentals the GBP/USD dropped to 1.3857 but succeeded to regain the 1.3900 handle with current market price around the 23.6%. Fibonacci retracement of the February bearish run at 1.3914.

Technically speaking the short term outlook for the Cable remains neutral to bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below the flat 20-day SMA, coinciding with the 38.2% of same Fibo at 1.3960. RSI is quite undecided and is staying flat around 43. Stochastic is showing strong bearish momentum and has entered into extreme negative area. 

According to above readings the bulls will remain behind the curtains until fighting back first the 1.3900 level and then 1.3960. The downside is currently supported initially by 1.3890 and lower at 1.3850.

EUR/USD Remains bearish ahead of NFP

The EUR/USD pair continues to suffer and today extend its decline to 1.775 with current market price 1.1777. The marco agenda today counld’t affect much the pair’s behavior as NFP day tomorrow will provide larger impact. And having ECB and Fed meetings next week we will witness really thrilling development on the pair.

On the four hour time frame the price is situated below flat 100-day SMA and bearish 20-day SMA, while the 200-day SMA is keeping neutral stance and is provide support at 1.1745. RSI is located within negative territory and is showing bearish momentum. Stochastic is displaying extreme oversold conditions, below 20 level and has lost directional strength.

With US Senate intending to extend the debt ceiling and avoid a government shutdown and US dollar might add some fuel, otherwise the pair is poised to extend its decline towards the support at 1.1715, having the expectations of NFP tomorrow. 

Aussie is under pressure despite the strong employment report

The Australian macro data released today was not quite good to boost the Aussie. The AUD/USD pair is trading at weekly lows and is closing the day below the 0.8000 handle and having marked daily low at  0.7956.

Technically speaking the pair is showing bearish signs on the four-hour time frame. The price is moving well below its bearish 20-day SMA, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are staying flat and are providing good support levels. RSI and stochastic are located below their mid-lines and both had lost directional strength. 

Key support is seen at 0.7965 and if breaking below it, the pair could be dragged even lower towards 0.7930. Strong challenge for the bulls remains the psychological level 0.8000 and in case of conquering it, next target would be 0.8035.

GBP/USD BoE boosted the Pound

It’s been a quite volatile day in the markets, with the Pound occupying the centre of the stage on the back of a hawkish BoE’s policy statement. GBP/USD marked highest level since September 2016, rising up to 1.3404, with over pips from its daily low with the release outcome. It’s interesting that the greenback failed to rally, as it was expected,  despite the good news from the US as CPI is up with 0.4% month-over-month, which lifted the year-over-year rate to 1.9%.

Technically speaking the short-term trend remains bullish. On the four-hour time frame the price accelerated through its bullish 20-day SMA, which is advancing above its current level and is gaining upward strength. Indicators are located within extreme overbought territory with RSI loosing directional strength and stochastic keeping strong bullish momentum. 

Bulls are now eyeing 1.3410 with stronger challenge ta 1.3445. The downside is limited by 1.3325/30 level, a resistance turned into support. 

Gold on risk-on mode

The precious metal erased last week’s gains against the greenback losing 1% or more than $12 for the day. XAU/USD is currently trading around $1272.70, having marked daily low at $1267 (38.2% Fibonacci retarcement of latest $1251to $1292 upleg).

The US upbeat data today supported the greenback and the US Dollar Index is seen so higher, even reaching two weeks high at 94.01. So the safe heaven demand was set on risk-on mode. Technically speaking the four-hour time frame is showing bearish signs.
The price is moving well below its 20-day SMA, while the 100-day SMA is diving a good support coinciding with the 61.8% of same Fibonacci retarcement at $1267. 
RSI and stochastic had retreated from the oversold areas but yet are far below their mid-lines. And this comes to tell that bears might enjoy their  time until breaking the Fibo 38.2% at $1276 that would bring back bulls in the game. 

GBP/USD Facing downside risk on corrective pullbacks

The GBP/USD pair continues to keep its downside pressure, regardless of the greenback’s faintness and the less attractive Pound. The macroeconomic agenda has nothing to offer until Thursday  and the more important event will be next Friday, when the US inflation numbers will be released. So no dramatic movements are expected and the pair will keep its sideways course.
On the four-hour time frame the price continues to develop below its bearish 20-day SMA. RSI and stochastic are located within oversold territory but both had lost directional strength.
The intraday support is located around the level of the 200-day SMA – 1.3000 and in case of breaking it to below, next bears’ target will be 1.2950. Looking to the upside, first resistance is seen at 1.3100 with a advance beyond here additional gains up to 1.1330 – 1.1350 are expected.  
Generally in the short term the cable will keep facing downside risk on corrective pullbacks.

EUR/USD looking for reason not to stay still

The release of a better-than-expected ADP survey today is showing some vital signs in the greenback, which was seen higher across the board. EUR/USD dropped to 1.0633, but closed few pips above this level, supported mainly by the bad numbers on Markit Services PMIs for the EU.

MC Minutes released in the US afternoon exposed Fed’s intentions to shrink its balance sheet during the current year, which additionally fuelled the US dollar, although markets were quite careful in movements. It seems that investors need stronger reason to buy the greenback, at least against the single currency.

Lately the EUR/USD pair is caught in tight range but according to the technical readings on the four-hour time frame the risk remains towards downwards.The pair is experiencing difficulties to push higher above the the 20-day SMA, which is tending to south currently. RSI has switched to bullish mode, but yet is below mid-lines, while stochastic is caught in the middle  and is trending to lows. 

Whereas the pair is standing still we should consider the key support level at 1.0620, as in case of breaking it, bears would be poised to chase 1.0565.

Among the complicated macro economic development on both shores, the speculative interest needs something stronger to stir the markets. 

EUR/USD At Fresh New Highs

The EUR/USD pair posted fresh 2017 high today reaching 1.0815. Stong macroeconomic data supported the rally from USA and Europe.

As seen on the four-hour frame the pair crossed to upside the 20-day SMA, which currently coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest decline ( November 2016 to January 2017) at 1.0705. Technical indicators are alongside with the bulls and are placed well above the mid lines. RSI is around 65 level and is showing lack of momentum. Stochastic is displaying extreme overbought market but is confirming strong bullish momentum, even with slight signs of recovery.

The pair is now facing strong resistance at 1.0816 (50% Fibonacci retracement of same November to January slide). In case of conquering this level, next target for bulls is seen beyond 1.09 handle.

 

 

GBP/USD at neutral stance

The GBP/USD pair was trading lower during yesterday’s session and remained under the 50-day moving average. Today the pair is seen slightly elevated especially in the morning, when the UK retail sales data was released and surprised with better than expected numbers. Anyway this is not enough to support the Pound in the near future as all eyes are focused on the upcoming Fed’s meeting and considering the rising expectations for rate hike.

RSI is currently placed withing the mid lines and showing lack of momentum. Stochastic is indicating bearish signs and moving downwards from the mid-lines. Both indicators are not pointing bullishness. Testing the support at 1.2350 will hint the short-term attitudes. If crossing this line, a slide towards the next support at 1.2090 is expected. Looking to the upside resistances are seen at 1.2545, 1.2670 and 1.2775.

EUR/USD: Rolling To The Deep

Trump’s win seems now to be digested by market participants and the US dollar’s strength is loosing momentum. During the Asian session the EUR/USD pair pushed slightly higher and topped at 1.0815, but later on the freshly released EU macro data moved the pair back to previous positions. 

Another macro data today was released from the US calendar, showing better than expected numbers on retail sales. So for shortly the US dollar was uplifted, but currently the pair is trading at 1.0718 and is heading to lowest levels for the week. 

RSI is placed at around 36% and is loosing momentum. Stochastic is located at extreme oversold area and also pointing lack of momentum. Both indicator remain flat within bearish area and confirming the downward slope.

EUR/USD lower

The freshly released macro data from the USA washed out the great expectations for the EUR/USD pair. The US durable goods orders are down with 1%, the initial jobless claims has fallen by 3000 and the pending home sales increased with only 1,5%.

Following those disappointing numbers, the pair stepped downwards, passed below 1.09 level and marked intraday low at 1.0882.

If we take a look on movement this week, we’ll see that the pair is stuck between 1.0950 and 1.0850 area. Meanwhile the pair is currently placed below the 10, 50 and 200-day moving averaged, which are acting as dynamic resistances. 

The stochastic is showing oversold market and is currently at 23% level.

From a short-term viewpoint supports are placed at 1.0874 (October 26 low), 1.0851 (Oct 25 low). Looking to the upside resistances are seen at 1.0946 (October 26 high) and the psychological level at 1.1000. 

EUR/USD ahead of ECB meeting

In the early trading hours today the US dollar was performing slightly stronger against the major rivals, supported by Fed's Beige Book release that indicated clear and definite development for the US economy. In anticipation of the key event today, ECB meeting and Mario Draghi's speech, the EUR/USD is consolidating within a tight range.

It is expected that ECB will keep unchanged its key benchmark interest rates and bond purchase program. Anyway today’s meeting and the following presser will bring increased volatility on markets.

The pair is currently hovering around 1.0950 level, which is an immediate support. If bears strengthen their force, the pair will be sent lower towards next support at 1.0920. Looking to upwards, if the pair struggles to push higher above the current support mark, will face the first resistance located at 1.1065.

GBP/USD uptrending

During yesterday’s session the pound marked modest increase against the US dollar. The session closed just 29 pips higher and pinned an intraday high at 1.2135. Given the fact that yesterday’s performance was corrective recovery, bulls seen back today was expected even slightly pressured.

As it is clearly seen on the H4 chart, the pair is modestly uptrending and pushing above the 20-day simple moving average. The pair is advancing from 1.2200 to 1.2300. RSI is located in the positive area, but although is showing lack of strong upward momentum.

Support is located at 1.2120 and 1.1950. Looking upwards first resistance is lying on 1.2300 and currently is being tested. Next resistance is seen at 1.2460 and 1.2790.

AUD/USD again above 0.7600

AUD/USD conquered again the 0.7600 handle during today’s early trading hours. The pair  rallied towards 0.7647 and it seems that this level will remain the intraday high. Despite the positive data coming from the USA, the greenback is trading mixed today, but definitely lower against the commodity currencies. The Asian session boosted the mood as Chinese macro data on inflation was released and marked quite good numbers.

From technical viewpoint the AUD/USD is moving upwards, though correction around 0.7600 level is the most likely scenario. The 20-day moving average is also heading to the upside. RSI is showing overbought market and the stochastic is displaying bullish momentum.

Resistance is now located at 0.7700 and support is seen at 0.7560 (61.80% Fibonacci retracement) and 0.7615 (23.60% Fibonacci retracement).

US dollar fade out lines

The US dollar is going deeper down,
along with the poor GDP noticing,
the dovish Fed’s spelldown
and against the plethora of G20 under performing.

The clock is ticking some couple of tocks
and markets will re-estimate next Fed’s knocks.

Chipping around, kicked by EUR’s rally towards 1.12 mark
where EUR/USD pair more than a month couldn’t park.
RBA failed to weaken the Australian dollar
and the yen was seen in a new fresh 3-week spur.

These are the days – it never rains but it pours.
Circumstances laugh under the pressure the USD is cracking.
US dollar index as well regrettably sours
and in 3 months the biggest fall is posting.

Over the greenback the shadow grows, but shall it leave broken pieces to this priceless ballet?