AUD/USD Bearish pressure ahead of NFP

The AUD/USD pair moved higher during Asian session and marked daily high at 0.7372 after the upbeat Australian retail sales data. But during the pat hour lost upward traction and retreat to currently trade around 0.7363.  
Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains neutral to bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing its bearish 20-day SMA and flat 50-day and 100-day SMAs. RSI lacks direction around 40 level while stochastic has turned north although remains well below its mid-line.
The selling pressure has diminished for now as market participants became cautious ahead of today's key event risk – the US monthly jobs report release. So until then no significant moves are expected and it’ll become more interesting later on, especially in case with strong US jobs numbers which will further boost the bears. The short-term perspective turns towards key supports at 0.7340, 0.7320 and 0.7310.

Aussie above 0.74 ahead of NFP

After yesterday’s quite consolidation mode today AUD/USD is trading higher, up with 0.33% and current market price 0.7411. Despite the upbeat US ISM non-manufacturing PMI and the latest FOMC meeting minutes, which reconfirmed Fed’s tightening policy, the US Dollar was set under selling pressure. Meanwhile the trade war sentiments and the slump in copper prices coundn’t affect the ongoing positive momentum.

Technically speaking the short term outlook remains neutral to bullish. Ont he four hour time frame the price is developing above its flat moving averages. RSI is located above its mid-line but has lost directional strength. Stochastic is showing strong bullish momentum and is nearing oversold readings.

First bullish target is provided by the weekly high at 0.7425 followed by the psychological handle at 0.7500. The downside is supported by 0.7380 and lower at 0.7335.

Today the NFP data is due and the Unemployment rate and Average Hourly Earnings data. The first event is going to be the main markets driver and will bring higher volatility, so it’ll be interesting to observe breakouts. 

USD/CAD dropped to fresh multi-month lows

USD/CAD plummeted today and dropped to lowest level since late September 2017. The pair was set on huge selling pressure, with over 150 pips down for the day, after the disappointing NFP data form US, while in Canada the unemployment rate dropped to 5.7%.

Technically speaking, the short term outlook for the pair remain neutral to bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is moving well below its bearish moving averages. RSI and stochastic are located within extreme oversold areas, with the first starting to retreat and the second has lost directional strength. As seen on the same chart, after marking the multi months low at 1.2351 the pair found support at the 61.8% Fibo of latest September to November bullish run.This is very significant level and in case of breaking it to below, the pair will be poised to extend its decline towards the psychological 1.2300 handle. During the upcoming sessions we may expect a corrective phase, before USD/CAD takes new direction. 

  

USD/JPY Uptrending, but NFP could impact

The USD/JPY pair is seen boosted today, marching beyond 113.00 level, despite no move in US Treasury yields and Nikkei’s weakness last night. From greenback’s side we have the US Senate intending to extend the debt ceiling and avoid a government shutdown and this might add some fuel. On the other hand NFP tomorrow is not giving good expectation for the US dollar. Q3 numbers are die in Japan with expectations for upward correction from preliminary calculations.

Technically speaking the pair is showing upwards potential. As seen on the four hour time frame the price is moving above its moving averages, but all of them had turned flat. Most important of the is the 200-day SMA, which is providing dynamical support around 112.90 level. RSI and stochastic are located withing extreme overbought ares and are displaying strong bullish momentum. 

I think that both indicators might face some exhaustion and we must be cautious ahead of the NFP data tomorrow. 

EUR/USD Remains bearish ahead of NFP

The EUR/USD pair continues to suffer and today extend its decline to 1.775 with current market price 1.1777. The marco agenda today counld’t affect much the pair’s behavior as NFP day tomorrow will provide larger impact. And having ECB and Fed meetings next week we will witness really thrilling development on the pair.

On the four hour time frame the price is situated below flat 100-day SMA and bearish 20-day SMA, while the 200-day SMA is keeping neutral stance and is provide support at 1.1745. RSI is located within negative territory and is showing bearish momentum. Stochastic is displaying extreme oversold conditions, below 20 level and has lost directional strength.

With US Senate intending to extend the debt ceiling and avoid a government shutdown and US dollar might add some fuel, otherwise the pair is poised to extend its decline towards the support at 1.1715, having the expectations of NFP tomorrow. 

EUR/USD Flirting with 1.1700 level ahead of NFP

The greenback gathered momentum in the US session after the better than expected US data and the hawkish tone from the Fed’s speakers. Adding to the big picture the ECB's meeting minutes which hit the single currency, the EUR/USD pair was seen gravitating around 1.1700 level. On the four hour time frame the price has crossed to below its bearish 20-day SMA, while the 200-day SMA has moved above the 100-day SMA (also bearish). Stochastic has turned sharply to south and is displaying strong bearish momentum. RSI is starting to recover from the extreme oversold territory and is currently located at 35. Ahead of NFP tomorrow the pair is vulnerable to extend its decline in case of strong numbers. 

USD/JPY Bounced from the oversold area

The release of the ADP report surprised the markets with better than expected figures and the USD/JPY pair bounced from the daily low at 112.30, having in mind that since last Friday the pair is caught in a tight range. 

Technically speaking in the short term the bias remains neutral to bullish. The price is now developing well above its uptrending 100-day SMA, while the 20 day SMA is staying flat around 112.75. Stochastic has bounced from the extreme oversold area and has turned sharply to north but yet remains below its mid-line. RSI is also displaying bullish momentum and is located at 53. 

To confirm the bullish outlook the pair needs to conquer the 113.00 level, where the first resistance is located. Next one is seen at 113.27 – last week’s high. Looking to the downside, below 112.20 the pair would be poised to extend its decline towards 111.90. 

However until Friday, when US NFP will be released, we have calm days and USD/JPY is more likely to extend its range.

EUR/USD Flirting with 1.19 ahead of NFP

The last day of the week started with strong demand for the single currently and the EUR/USD pair is flirting with 1.19 handle.

The pair is up for third consecutive week and the price is developing around its yearly high. As there no signals for upward exhaustion, the rally might extend to the critical 1.20 level.
The most important event that will stir the market today is the Non Farm Payroll (NFP) numbers that will be released later today and this could significantly impact the greenback.
Technical indicator on the four-hour time frame are showing bullish signs. The price is moving above its uptrending moving averages. RSI is nearing 70 but has lost directional strength. Stochastic has turned sharply to north and is also aiming overbought area.
A soft outcome of the jobs data will push the pair to 1.1910 with second bulls target at 1.2040.

USD/JPY in consolidation

USD/JPY pair was trading elevated today with moving higher above 50-day, 100-day and  200-day moving averages. The pair has not been so much uplifted for months and probably the rising expectations for Fed’s rate hike are provoking for US dollar’s strength and at the same time pressuring for the safe haven yen. 

Anyway the USD/JPY pair marked today an intraday high at 104.14, but couldn’t hold it for long time and slight downward movement followed. Currently the pair is consolidating around 104 handle. It is very hard to predict the further behaviour of the pair, especially tomorrow, as the NFP release is going to be the main engine that will stir the markets.RSI is showing overbought market and stochastic is showing strong strong momentum is above the 80 line. Resistance is now located at 104.30 and further on at 105.00, which is key pattern. Looking downwards support is seen at 103.69  and 102.64.

USD/CHF possibly uptrending

The NFP release last week pushed higher the US dollar and this fuelled the USD/CHF pair upwards. The pair conquered the support lying at 0.9848, matching with the 38.2% Fibo, drawn from May’s 2015 low to November’s 2015 high. Now this level turned to be resistance and the CHF is somehow pressured and is marking lower highs. 

Meanwhile we are facing higher lows as well. May’s 2016 low is uptrending with June’s 2015 low and crossed the 61.8% Fico retracement. So in the long-term USD is fascinating and is showing strength above 0.9648.

In case of breaking below 50.00% Fibo retracement at  0.9700 most probably we must look around for touching the support line at 0.9630. Going below this level might drag the pair below 0.9500 area.

Positive numbers rocketed the US dollar

The fresh NFP data released today provided best numbers for the US economy and pushed the greenback higher. 287,000 jobs were created in June, well up from 11,000 in May and comparing with the expected 180,000.
In an immediate response to the numbers publishing, the US Dollar rose sharply against the Euro and was seen marking daily highs. The EUR/USD pair went to daily lows, testing the $1.10 level, falling from $1.1083.
During the past week the pair was spiralling in tight range, stuck between the support around $1.1020 and the resistance at $1.11 zone. In case the EUR/USD pair break out from this consolidation level, we may expect the following trend to be undisturbed in the next week.

  

 

„In the coming months”

The long awaited speech of the Fed Chair Janet Yellen boosted the expectations for raising the benchmark interest rate in the next months.

Surely this will not happen in June, but she pointed out that the US central bank definitely will lift the rates. Yet the exact time frame is not put.

Yellen pointed out some „sizeable” instabilities encicled the US economy. The NFP data encouraged the thoughts of the central bankers. Also we must face the global development and in particular the UK referendum vote. So the future of the Fed’s monetary policy is tightly related to solvation of these fluctuations.

Following Yellen’s speech US dollar remained stuck around 3-week low. EUR/USD fell 0.08% and was trading lower. The intraday low was reached at 1.325.

USD/CAD dropped with 0.60% and was trading 1.2854. The daily low was hit at 1.2831, which pinned  a 3-week high.

Wall Street closed in green, as mostly profited the financial and energy sector.

S&P 500 closed 0.49% up at 2,109, DJIA finished 0.63% higher at 17,919 and Nasdaq rose with 0.53% to 4,968.

NFP weakened the US dollar

The NFP wave made the US dollar suffer with significant losses as the released data for May disappointed market participants. The results showed only 38,000 jobs created amid the expectations of 160,000 and the weak data dipped the US dollar 1.6% against the major currencies.
Following this the likelihood of an increase in interest rates by Fed next week slightly thinned, which reflected to the dollar. In view of the forthcoming referendum in Britain, central bankers may refrain from actions this month. Expectations for rates hike in July also decreased, but probably Janet Yellen will draw attention for possibly tightening the monetary policy later today in Philadelphia.
On Friday the dollar dipped against the yen to 106.50 as a result of negative data, but today started the week with declines again to return around the levels at 107 during the early trading. The pair nears the crucial level at 105 and this awakes the fluctuation about intervention by the Tokyo authorities in the foreign exchange market.
The greenback lost ground against the single currency. The euro climbed to 1.1373 after last week had depreciated to 1.1097. Despite the losses for the greenback due to weak data, overall  US economy remains framed and a rates hike is more likely to be postponed this month as now the focus is more on vote in UK rather than the employment report.
The British pound fell 0.8% against the US dollar this morning, because it became clear that the preliminary surveys showed Leave side ahead. Sterling dipped to 1.4351 dollars.

Disappointing jobs report dragged the US dollar

The US economy created 160,000 new jobs in April, according to the latest report of BLS.

These figures did’t meet the expectations for an increase of over 200,000 jobs outside agriculture. The unemployment rate remains unchanged at 5%.

One of the few good news is that average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% to $25.53, while on yearly base increased by 2.5%, compared with 2.3% in the previous year.

The release of NFP data dragged the US dollar with 40 pips down and EUR/USD pair climbed towards 1.1480. Next week will bring quite unsignificant macro data, which will support the upside movement of the pair.