AUD/USD Surged closer to the yearly high around 0.7740

From the beginning of the week the AUD/USD pair is showing string upward momentum and today marked daily high at 0.7739, which is few pips below the yearly high posted om March 21st.

This movement is of course well supported by sure fundamentals as the consumer inflation expectations for July are well increasing and meanwhile the Chinese trade surplus showed better that expected numbers.  

Technical indicators on the four-hour time frame are confirming the short term bullish outlook. The price is developing above its 20-day SMA while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are staying flat and are acting as dynamic supports around 0.7500 – 0.7535 area. Stochastic has turned sharply to north and RSI is nearing overbought territory. As both indicators are displaying strong upward momentum, some exhaustion is not excluded that could lead to slight correction. 

However the rally might be extended towards 0.7835 – the last year’s high, with some risk to keep in mind in case of abrupt retracement due to profit taking.

Aussie meets strong resistance at 0.7500

Commodities currencies are best performers this Monday along with Aussie extending up to 0.7488, highest level seen since May 3rd.  It’s an important level to consider as staying slightly below 0.7500 and it’s an area defined by 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest March to May decline together with the upper line of descending trend line. 

The immediate upside momentum is seized by the this threshold. Temporary support  is lying at  the overnight lows having in mind possible close below 0.7385, that would put back the downtrend on the table.

Aussie is approaching key resistance confluence and we should focus on the 0.7429 – 0.7490 range, but upside is capped by the  61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7589 of above mentioned decline. 

The economic calendar has nothing to offer during the upcoming session, but the positive momentum in equities and commodities will possibly drive Aussie gains. 

However, the we should focus  on the structural resistance that is heading towards  0.7500 mark  ans in case of breach, there would be more meaningful breakout in the pair.

Aussie rejected at the upper line of the short-term downtrend

The Aussie plummeted today and marked lowest level since January, having hit intraday low at 0.7418. It seems quite reasonable on the back of falling commodities, as base metals closed sharply down and gold posted lowest level for the last month and it’s all in common with the weakened Chinese demand. 

Technically speaking the AUD/USD pair was rejected at the upper line of the short-term downtrend. On the daily chart the 20-day SMA has started to turn to south. RSI and stochastic are displaying sharp bearish slopes and both are currently being below their mid-lines. 

The rally might extend to downwards, as price is well below 0.7490 (strong support that turned to be resistance now). Staying flat on this pair seems to be most reasonable now.

Thriller, votes and EUR/USD

EUR/USD was thrilled during yesterday’s trading and tried to push higher, marked an intraday high at 1.1110, but closed lower at 1.1040. The pair sloped under the range and couldn’t clearly break above the 200-day ЕМА. 

Monday’s mood seems to be extended into today as markets are already pricing the US votes. Initial results are showing a slight advantage for Mrs Clinton and therefore equities and commodities currencies were elevated. Meanwhile some macro data in Europe was release, but markets ignored it, as the attention is focused on the US election day.

The EUR/USD is feeling under great pressure and the pair fell to previous lows and was testing the 1.1010 level. Clinton’s victory might drive the pair downwards to October 25th low at 1.0850.

Indicators are placed within negative territory. RSI is currently at around 36% level and stochastic is showing oversold market, both confirming the bearish trend. 

Anyway the elections results have the last saying and the pair’s direction is still being uncertain. 

 

AUD/USD again above 0.7600

AUD/USD conquered again the 0.7600 handle during today’s early trading hours. The pair  rallied towards 0.7647 and it seems that this level will remain the intraday high. Despite the positive data coming from the USA, the greenback is trading mixed today, but definitely lower against the commodity currencies. The Asian session boosted the mood as Chinese macro data on inflation was released and marked quite good numbers.

From technical viewpoint the AUD/USD is moving upwards, though correction around 0.7600 level is the most likely scenario. The 20-day moving average is also heading to the upside. RSI is showing overbought market and the stochastic is displaying bullish momentum.

Resistance is now located at 0.7700 and support is seen at 0.7560 (61.80% Fibonacci retracement) and 0.7615 (23.60% Fibonacci retracement).

AUD/USD close to 3-week high

The Australian dollar is trading elevated today, boosted by OPEC’s deal to cut output. This remarkable event pushed higher the commodity currencies and thrilled the risk appetite. 

Aussie hit an intraday high at 0.7709 but shortly afterwards fell down. RSI shows close to overbought market, which confirms the profit-taking actions by market players. 

As seen on the four hour chart, the 50-day moving average is crossing the 200-day moving average and currently is staying above, which is to indicate the bullish trend. Support is located around 0.7620, where currently is located the 50-day MA. The short-term outlook remains bullish, but bulls should conquer the 8^th September high at 0.7731 and 9^th August high at 0.7833 for confirmation of the long-term trend.