AUD/USD Above 0.7400 ahead of Powell's speech

The AUD/USD pair is trading within tight range today around 0.7400, having marked daily high at 0.7437 during the Asian session. During the early trading hours the RBA meeting minutes revealed that the next move on rates in Australia will likely be up, once the unemployment lowers and inflation marks growth. Meanwhile the US dollar is gaining strength ahead of US federal Reserve’s chairman Jerome Powells testimony in Congress later on today.
Technically speaking the short term outlook remains neutral. On the four hour time frame the price is developing between its flat moving averages. RSI and stochastic are displaying bearish slopes slightly below their mid-lines and still remain far from extreme negative territories. According to above readings a risk of downward continuation will appear only is case of breaking the support at 0.7370 en route to next one at 0.7330. On the other hand bulls could get some love if pushing above the daily high and then next target will be offered by the resistance at 0.7490.

Aussie above 0.74 ahead of NFP

After yesterday’s quite consolidation mode today AUD/USD is trading higher, up with 0.33% and current market price 0.7411. Despite the upbeat US ISM non-manufacturing PMI and the latest FOMC meeting minutes, which reconfirmed Fed’s tightening policy, the US Dollar was set under selling pressure. Meanwhile the trade war sentiments and the slump in copper prices coundn’t affect the ongoing positive momentum.

Technically speaking the short term outlook remains neutral to bullish. Ont he four hour time frame the price is developing above its flat moving averages. RSI is located above its mid-line but has lost directional strength. Stochastic is showing strong bullish momentum and is nearing oversold readings.

First bullish target is provided by the weekly high at 0.7425 followed by the psychological handle at 0.7500. The downside is supported by 0.7380 and lower at 0.7335.

Today the NFP data is due and the Unemployment rate and Average Hourly Earnings data. The first event is going to be the main markets driver and will bring higher volatility, so it’ll be interesting to observe breakouts. 

AUD/USD Bears rule the trend

The AUD/USD pair tried to push higher today but bulls couldn’t advance beyond 0.7408. The Australian Westpac Leading Index showed worse than expected figures while the greenback is keeping steady levels. Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains neutral to bearish.On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its moving averages and as seen the 20-day SMA stalled the bullish aspiration. RSI is staying flat around its 30 while the stochastic is extremely bearish and is entering oversold area. Immediate support is seen at 0.7345 and if broken to below will open doors for testing 0.7250, which will offer strong long-term support line.

AUD/USD Pushed to 0.7676 and marked fresh 6-week high

The AUD/USD  pair pushed higher today extending the bullish sentiment started form May 9th. The pair surpassed the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of latest April to May bearish run and surged to daily high at 0.7676. The Australian bulls were influenced by better than expected numbers on economic growth for Q1 while the US agenda has nothing to offer but however the pair retreated slightly from the daily high along with US equities

Technically speaking the short term outlook remains neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing well above its moving averages with 20-day and 100-day SMAs aiming north and flat 200-day SMA. RSI and stochastic had eased above their mid-lines with second once one located within overbought area.

Having in mind that the pair failed to break above its daily high and directionless indicators we might see again it around the support provided by 61.8% Fibo at 0.7660. On the other hand the upcoming session will bring Australia’s AIG Performance on Construction Index for May and the April trade balance figures, which are supposed to show goodish figures  more likely will give the Aussie an additional boost. In this scenario bulls will try to fight the 0.77 level which if broken will open doors for testing 0.7740.

AUD/USD Vulnerable to deeper decline

Since April 19^th the AUD/USD pair entered into bearish trajectory and broke to below consecutively the 2016 bullish trend line and the bearish channel started from February 2018.  After having marked a new fresh 11-month low today at 0.7412, the pair bounced modesty to currently trade around 0.7450. However the pair remains vulnerable for further declines because the bears conquered the psychological support at 0.7500, now acting as a resistance. So a potential recovery might lead the price towards first resistance area at 0.7480 provided by 50% Fibonacci retracement of 2016-2018 bullish run, before nearing again this critical 0.75 mark. The downside is immediately protected by the 0.7410-0.7400, and in case the pair close below it, will be poised to extend its decline towards next support at 0.7370, which if broken will open doors for testing the 61.8% of same Fibo at 0.7327.  

AUD/USD Bears are aiming 0.7500 area

The AUD/USD pair tumbled to fresh 2018 lows, down with 0.45% today and currently trading at 0.7561. US bulls are back in game supported by the rising 10-years Treasury yields, which reached the impressive 3.02 %. While Australia is having holiday today, Aussie is conducted by  the US dollar dynamics.
Technically speaking the short term outlook remains bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing well below its moving averages. The 20-day SMA is keeping its bearish slope while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are starting to turn south after staying flat the last two weeks. RSI and stochastic are located with extreme oversold areas however there is scope for further declines.
Last week the pair decisively broke the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement of latest December to January bullish run at 0.7745. During the past two months the price was moving back and forth around it and switching from support to restisrance several times. The above mentioned indicators support additional declines and bears now are aiming the 0.7500 area and thus the same Fibonnacci retracement would be completed at 100%.
The macro agenda is not offering any significant releases and with Australian market closed the US bulls are setting the tone.

AUD/USD Found support at 61.8% Fibo

Earlier today the Aussie dropped to its lowest level in six days, but found support at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement latest November to January bullish run at 0.7743.After bottoming exactly at this level AUD/USD bounced and reached a fresh 4-day high at 0.7795 just for few hours.

The short term outlook remains neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing its moving averages, all of them keeping flat stance. RSI and stochastic are showing strong bullish momentum and both are located slightly above their mid-lines.

The upside remains capped by the psychological 0.7800 mark, which was tested last week although bulls couldn’t fight it. Should the pair succeed to break this level, next resistance is provided by the 50% Fibo of above mentioned retracement at 0.7820. On the flip side, immediate support is provided by the 20-day SMA at 0.7770. In case Aussie close below this area, bears would meet again with the 61.8% Fibo at 0.7745. 

AUD/USD Found support at 61.8% Fibo

AUD/USD performed excellent today and marked daily high at 0.7773, escaping from the bottoms during the last two weeks. Currently the pair is trading at 0.7756, having slightly pulled back due to the influence of geopolitical tensions that drove oil and gold higher.

Also the FOMC minutes supported the downward slope, but the pair found support at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of latest November 2017 to January 2018 bullish run at 0.7745.

Technically speaking the short term outlook remains truly neutral. On the four hour time frame the price is developing above its moving averages, having bullish 20-day SMA and flat 100-day and 200-day SMAs. RSI and stochastic are showing overbought conditions, but both are losing directional strength.

Until the pair holds above 0.7740, the sentiments will remain in favour of the upside with bulls aiming towards next Fibonacci resistance at 0.7820. The downside is supported by 0.7740 and lower at 0.7700.

AUD/USD In sideways consolidation ahead of RBA

AUD/USD was uplifted today, supported by higher copper prices having marked daily high at 0.7956 and low at 0.7890. However the pair was unable to keep steady gains and entered into sideways consolidation just ahead of important macro events coming from Australia tonight. The trade balance data for December and January retail sales are due, but the highlight of the day will be the RBA meeting. It’s largely expected that the central bankers will keep unchanged the rates at 1.5%.

And expectations make Aussie weaker. Technically speaking the short term outlook for the pair remains bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is very close and is likely to break the support provided by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest bullish run around 0.7890, where today found bottom. RSI and stochastic are located within negative territories and both are showing bearish momentum.

In case of breaking the above mentioned level, next hurdle for bears is seen at 0.7850, followed by 0.7820. On the flip side first resistance comes at 0.7956 and second at 0.7985.

AUD/USD The battle for 0.81 continues with busy Wednesday

Aussie lost ground during last sessions but is trying to recover. Nevertheless the battle for the 0.81 area remains in force. Today the AUD/USD pair marked daily high at 0.8113 but eased with US opening and currently is trading at 0.8084.The slide from the top took place amid the renewed rally of the greenback and the falling prices of oil and gold.

Technically speaking the short term outlook remains neutral. On the four hour time frame the price is moving above its 100-day and 200-day SMAs, while the 20-day one keeps flat around 0.8083 and the bulls fail to conquer it. RSI is located around its mid-line with lack of directional strength. Stochastic is showing bearish momentum with current location at 43. 

To add some gains the AUD/USD pair should first break the 0.8135 level in order to generate power to test the 0.8200 handle.

The upcoming Asian session will bring Australia’a December inflation figures which may push Aussie higher in case they come above expected. From the US side we’ll have President Trump’s speech, the ADP private employment report is due and then the Federal Reserve will announce its decisions. So busy Wednesday ahead and it’ll be interesting to observe the pair’s movement. 

AUD/USD Bulls on pause mode under 0.80 barrier

Since the beginning of the week the AUD/USD pair has been trading in narrow range, close to the recently marked high and suggesting continuation of the the bullish trend.Today the Aussie received a goodish boost by better than expected figures from Australian macro data while the greenback is losing strength. 
The AUD/USD topped at 0.7998 during the early trading hours but failed to crack once again the psychological barrier at 0.8000. The pair retreated to reach daily low at 0.7940 but found support at the 20-day SMA and bounced from this level to currently is trading at 0.7968.
On the four hour time frame the price is developing above its bullish moving averages. Stochastic retreated from its overbought readings and is showing bearish momentum, while RSI is located at 60 and is acting quite undecided, which suggests that bulls prefer to consolidate before next attempt to conquer the 0.8000 level.  

AUD/USD Neutral to bullish ahead of US macro data

During the early European session the AUD/USD pair retreated from the two and a half month high to test the 0.78 level. The corrective slide coundn’t last long and currently the pair is trading at 0.7837 with Australian dollar backed up by the confidence in the rising equities and the positive mood of commodities,with gold and silver aiming back to their recent tops.
Technically speaking the short term outlook for the pair remains neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is moving above all its moving averages, keeping course towards north. Stochastic has retreated from its mid-line and is showing strong bullish momentum. RSI is located within extreme overbought area, but is starting to lose directional strength.
Yesterday’s high at 0.7845 comes as first resistance and is case of successful taking, next target for the bulls is seen at 0.7890-0.7900. On the flip side we must be watchful around the psychological 0.7800 handle.
The upcoming US session is offering the ISM Manufacturing PMI figures for December and the most wanted FOMC minutes, having both macro events decisive for the AUD/USD pair.  

AUD/USD Higher

Aussie gained traction today and is seen hovering around mid 0.76s amid lack  of strong fundamentals DXY extended its downward slope to a fresh two week low, backed up by weakened US dollar coming form the jitters surrounding the outcome of the tax bills reforms. 

Friday’s bottom has been left behind today’s gains and AUD/USD is entering the Asian session in uplifted mood. Since marking low at 0.75 in 8th of December, the pair has been recovering ground, supported by good macro data from Australia. 

Technically speaking, the short term outlook remains bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is moving above all its moving averages, having 20-day SMA with strong bullish momentum and flat 100-day and 200-day SMAs. RSI is located around its 60 level, but has lost directional strength. Stochastic has turned sharply to north although is at its mid-line. 

Yet the 0.7700 remains critical zone and first bulls’ challenge and in case of conquering it, doors are opened for testing 0.7730 (November’s high). 

RBA minutes are due tomorrow with expectations of no change on its current  monetary policy, but amid no major other news and weak greenback, Aussie favors to the upside. 

AUD/USD Bulls can’t fight 0.77 handle

Aussie hit a new fresh four-month low at 0.7609 yesterday, a level that has not been visited since July 11th. And this is where the AUD/USD pair found support after the stellar performance of the NAB August business conditions survey figures. 

Today the pair is seen higher and marked daily high at 0.7651, but currently is tarding at 0.7631. The retreatment is mostly due to the China’s macro data that was softer than expected.

Technically speaking, Aussie keeps its bearish stance since early November when bulls lost the fight for the 0.77 handle. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its moving averages, all with bearish slopes. RSI is hovering around 40 and has lost directional strength. Stochastic is showing bullish momentum, but is yet far below its mid-line. 

Yestarday’s low is providing immediate support and in case of breaking to below, doors are opened for testing 0.7570 (early July’s low). 

AUD/USD Uplifted after RBA statement

AUD/USD moved higher today following the RBA policy announcement and statement. Centrals bankers, as expected, are keeping the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% and sounded a bid mild having recent weak economic data.
Aussie cheered up on the news and jumped to 0.7701, but the  euphoria didn’t last long the pair turned to the downside with current market price 0.7662.
On the four hour time frame the price is developing below all its moving averages, having the 100-day and 200-day SMAs with bearish slopes while the 20-day SMA is staying flat few pips above the current rate. RSI is located around its mid-line, but is showing strong bearish momentum. Stochastic is slightly above the mid, but has started to turn to south.  
Immediate support is seen at 0.7650 and in case of breaking it to below, the pair would be poised to extend its decline towards the key level at 0.7600. Looking to the upside, 0.7700 remains first challenge for the bulls, which if conquered next target will be 0.7725.