Gold rallies above $1300

The pace in demand for precious metal uplifted significantly after the breaking announcement from President Trump that the planned meeting with North Korea leader Kim Jong-un will not be held. Gold jumped from $1298 to $1306.50 and pinned highest level since mid May. 

Bulls have returned back in the game with strong impacted and added up some more than $10 from yesterday’s highs. Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains bullish. On the four hour time frame the price decisively broke to above the 50% Fibonacci retracement of latest December to January bullish run. Also surpassed the flat 100-day SMA while the 20-day SMA has turned to the upside. RSI is located just below 70 and is losing directional strength. Stochastic is showing extreme overbought conditions and is keeping bullish momentum. 

So far the rally remains capped by the resistance at $1310 and above this level bulls would be tempted by the 38.2% Fibo at $1316. The critical $1300 hurdle turned into support today and below it next relevant is $1291.

Gold below $1300 with bearish bias

The perceived safe haven precious metal broke the critical $1300 barrier today and marked a fresh 4-month low at $1288. US bulls and some technical factors pushed the price to the downside. DXY jumped to 93.28 after the release of US retail sales data, but the main driver of grenback’s strength are the rising US yields, which pinned today the highest level since 2011.

Technically speaking the bias is clearly bearish. XAU/USD broke the key support provided by 50% Fibonacci retracement of latest December to January bullish run at $1300. The slide continued and tested the 61.8% of same Fibo and finally the price bounced slightly to currently trade at $1292.

Ont he daily chart stochastic and RSI are showing strong bearish momentum and both are located below their mid-lines.

If the current breakdown is sustained, gold might meet again the 61.8% Fibo at $1286 before it has any chance to rebuild. However, the $1300 level remains reclaimed decisively so the bullish stance is rejected. Furthermore if the price goes back above the resistance provided by 50% FIbo at $1302 then we might conclude that today’s sell-off could be a false breaks. Golden bulls could return only if  breaking the recent swing high at $1325. But for now the path is paved towards the downside. 

Gold gains traction

Gold is trading higher today and gained strength after bouncing from the daily low at $1318. The demand for the precious metal is boosted as the US Dollar pulled back from the 4-month high against the major currencies. Yesterday the US CPI data came worse than expected and this added fuel for and this facilitated the retreat of grenback’s bears.
Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing between the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, both maintaining slow downward slopes. During the last session the price pushed above the 20-day SMA that has turned already to north and is acting as a dynamic support and coincided with such provided by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest April to May bearish run at $ 1314. Stochastic has entered extreme overbought area and is showing strong upward momentum. RSI is also pushing higher but is slightly indecisive just below 70.
As seen on the chart XAU/USD marched above the 38.2% Fibo of same retracement at $ 1322 and currently is trading at $ 1325. Above this level new challenge is offered by 50 % Fibo at $ 1330. The downside remains supported by the daily low at $1318, below which is standing $ 1314 (20-day SMA and 23.6% Fibo). 

Gold Is likely to test the lower edge of the 2018 range

Gold came under renewed selling pressure with the start of the new trading week and even marked fresh new monthly low at $1312. The safe-haven asset demand is fading amid rallying DXY and US Treasury yields at multi-year highs and adding calming down of the geopolitical tension in the Korean peninsula. 
Technically speaking the short term outlook remains bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its flat 100-day and 200-day SMAs and today crossed to below its 20-day bearish SMA. RSI and stochastic are showing strong downward momentum and are ready to enter into their oversold areas.
Looking at a broader picture since the beginning of 2018 the precious metal is seen in range trading moving back and forth between $1305 and $1366. Last week the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest December to January bullish run was broken and today the bears conquered the next 38.2% Fibo at $1316. Last one is considered as a significant level because has supported XAU/USD for oven a month. Hence the bearish trajectory might continue towards $1309-$1305 area, which is the lower edge of the 2018 range.

Gold Bulls are eyeing $1366

Since last Friday Gold prices turned the price movement direction towards north. During the last five session bulls gained strength and confidence and today are shrinking the distance to the remarkable January’s high at $1366.

As seen on the hour time frame currently the price is developing well above its moving averages and a little below the 3-week high at $1361. The 20-day SMA is keeping strong bullish course, while the 100-day and 200-day are staying flat and are acting as dynamic supports and coincide with the 50% ($1338) and 38.2% ($1330) Fibo levels of latest January to February brearish run.
On the same chart RSI and stochastic are located within extreme overbought territories, but both are losing directional strength. This signals some exhaustion and potential bearish reversal, so XAU/USD might enter into sideways consolidation ahead of $1366.

 

Gold Back above $1335

Gold jumped above $1335 today following the weakened US dollar amid growing woes on possible US government shutdown. During last three sessions the XAU/USD was trading lower but the downside movement was limited by the support line at $1325. Bulls quited this correction area to resume the up-move towards the 4-month high, that was marked at the beginning of the week. But to get back there, first should conquer the resistance at $1344, then the doors are opened for the $1350 area. On the flip side $1333-32 region supports the immediate downside (flat 20da- SMA), which if broken might drag the XAU/USD pair back around $1325. In the short term this scenario is not favored given the indicators on the four hour time frame supporting the uptrend.

Gold is rising

After the corrective slide yesterday, Gold is again up today and gains traction above $1318. The US dollar was set on pressure and is trading lower for second time during last three sessions despite the upbeat employment figures. Market players stayed indifferent on yesterday’s FOMC meeting minutes, for as much as March 2018 rate hike odds have hovered around 70% for the last month. Against this background the demand for the precious metal is rising.

Technically speaking the short term outlook remains bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is moving above all its moving averages,that are keeping north direction. RSI and stochastic are showing strong bullish momentum, both above their mid-lines. 

The first challenge for XAU/USD is seen at $1321(January 2nd’s high) and next one is the $1334 level, which will open doors for testing the September 5 top at $1344. On the flip slide caution comes with the psychological $1300 mark. 

Gold unable to extend the post-Fed gains

Following the Fed’s rate hike decision gold prices surged and marked one week high at the level $1259.00, but today is seen few pips lower, hovering around a neutral space at $1255.00. The US Dollar’s selling pressure is relieved by the uptick in the US Treasury bond yields which further impedes the gold bulls.
On the four hour time frame XAU/USD crossed to above its 20-day SMA that is starting to turn north while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are showing bearish slopes. RSI has reached 60 level but currently is changing the direction. Stochastic is displaying strong bullish momentum and is located within extreme overbought territory and some exhausture exhaustion begins to emerge.
Immediate support comes at $1250.00, below which bears are likely to test $1247.00. Looking to the upside first resistance is provided by the daily high at $1259.00 and in case bulls succeed to regain this level, next target is the 200-day SMA at $1267.00.
Later in the day monthly retail sales and initial jobless claims are due from the US and in case of affected greenback, fresh impetus would be given to the precious metal.

GOLD At two-week high

Yesterday’s FOMC minutes supported the gold prices on the back up of the notable USD weakness. The rate hike was postponed for December and the dovish tone of the central bankers reflected on sliding US treasury bonds yields, which supported the precious metal.  

XAU/USD is seen close to the very significant 1300.00 handle today and had marked daily high at 1297.50. On the four hour time frame the prices is moving well above its bullish 20-day SMA, while indicators are giving mixed signs. Stochastic is retreating from its extreme overbought territory, but yet remains above 80. RSI is located above its mid-line and is has lost directional strength.  Ahead of US PPI data and the weekly jobless claims gold prices are vulnerable to retreat lower in case of having better than expected numbers.  

First support is seen at 1290.00 and in case of breaking, door are opened for testing 1280.00. Looking to the upside, first resistance come at 32.8% Fibo of latest July to September bullish run around 1300.00 mark. If bulls succeed to conquer it, next target will be the 1310 – 1320 area.