GBP/USD Tough times for Sterling

Тhe EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier announced that is excluding aspecial deal for the UK banks with access to the common European market as Brexit is taking pre-negotiation position. PM May’s cabinet is staying united while her Conservative party rebels. By and large tough times for the Sterling after almost a year in the first stage of negotiations.
GBP/USD was caught in tight range today between 1.3320 – 1.3450. This movement might be considered as correction, but before year’s end the downward trend line was marked out.
On the four hour time frame the price is few pips below its bearish 20-day SMA, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs maintain slow upward slopes. Stochastic reached its mid-line, but has turned sharply to south. RSI is also around its middle and is showing bearish momentum.
Immediate support is provided by the 38.2% Fibonacci rertacement of latest August to September bullish run at 1.3320 and the pair will try to test it.
The macro agenda from UK today offered nothing, but from US we have housing data release. But more interesting news are the news surrounding the US tax reform bill. This configuration of fundamentals is favoring the US dollar and provides another confirmation of the bearish trend.

EUR/USD Fed’s hike is pushing the pair towards 1.1800

After a two day meeting the FOMC finally announce its widely expected decision to hike the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the target range of 1.25% - 1.50%. Following this the greenback lost its momentum and the EUR/USD pair was seen uplifted to currently trade at 1.1790 and seems that is climbing towards 1.1800. 

On the four hour time frame the price has crossed to above its 20-day SMA, which is starting to turn north, while the 100-day and the 200-day SMAs are still staying flat and are proving good resistance and support levels, respectively at 1.1830 and 1.1750. RSI and stochastic had turned sharply to overbought areas and are displaying strong bullish momentum. 

However first hurdle to the upside is seen at 1.1815 and in case euro bulls fight it, doors will be opened for testing the 1.1835.  

EUR/USD Remains bearish ahead of NFP

The EUR/USD pair continues to suffer and today extend its decline to 1.775 with current market price 1.1777. The marco agenda today counld’t affect much the pair’s behavior as NFP day tomorrow will provide larger impact. And having ECB and Fed meetings next week we will witness really thrilling development on the pair.

On the four hour time frame the price is situated below flat 100-day SMA and bearish 20-day SMA, while the 200-day SMA is keeping neutral stance and is provide support at 1.1745. RSI is located within negative territory and is showing bearish momentum. Stochastic is displaying extreme oversold conditions, below 20 level and has lost directional strength.

With US Senate intending to extend the debt ceiling and avoid a government shutdown and US dollar might add some fuel, otherwise the pair is poised to extend its decline towards the support at 1.1715, having the expectations of NFP tomorrow. 

EUR/USD With post FOMC bearish tunes

The US Federal Reserve decided to keep the rates unchanged, so the episode of the saga will be presented in December. On Thursday the President Trump will finally announce his favourite for the next Fed's head. The European agenda had nothing to offer today, while within USA positive economic figures were released. 

In this picture EUR/USD edged lower, but yet remained range bounded as is seen during the recent sessions. The pair is currently trading at 1.1622 with 0.2% lower for the day. 

From technical point of view, the short term outlook remains bearish. On the four hour time frame  the price has crossed to below all its moving averages, having  bearish 100-day and 200-day SMAs and the 20-day SMA is staying flat, few pips above the current price. 

RSI is slightly below its mid-line and has lost directional strength. Stochastic is displaying strong bearish momentum and is aiming sounth. 

Immediate support is seen at 1.1575 (the October’s low) and in case of breaking it to below, doors are opened for testing 1.1540. Looking to the upside, first challenge for the bull is located at 1.1670 (the upper side of the recent range) and next is presented by the psychological level at 1.1700.

However, EUR/USD will be trilled by Trump’s decision on next Fed’s head and grennback’s reaction. 

The Amazing Rally

270 pips up today. Yes, it is an amazing rally for the AUD/NZD pair.

Of course strong and interesting fundamentals are staying behind the scene. And turned that it’s not a scene, it’s a macro news race.  

The day started with better-than-expected figures on employment data in Australia and next on the agenda came China’s GDP, showing slowdown in the third quarter. Having in mind that China is the Australia’s largest trading partner, both news had well supported the Australian dollar. As I already mentioned in my previous post, today it became clear that in New Zealand the First Party will be coalited with Labor and Greens to form a government and this announcement was not well accepted by the markets because the risk of taking measures for correcting the New Zealand dollar overvaluation by the new government is increasing. This is about to change the interest rate differential between New Zealand and Australia in next months and would appreciate even higher the exchange rate of AUD/NZD.From a technical viewpoint, the AUD/NZD is showing strong bullish signs, because first of all since April 2015 we are witnessing higher lows. Meanwhile on the four hour time frame the price is well above all its moving averages. The 20-day SMA turned to bullish and crossed to above the flat 200-day SMA with also having 100-day SMA uptrending. RSI and stochastic are located within extreme overbought conditions and are starting to ease over there. Today a new 2017 high was marked at 1.1224 and currently the pair slightly retreated to 1.1207. According to indicators, that might show some exhaustion, in the short term we may expect a pullback. Until then I remain bullish on this pair unless we see formation of a clear reversal pattern at the upper levels.

Aussie is under pressure despite the strong employment report

The Australian macro data released today was not quite good to boost the Aussie. The AUD/USD pair is trading at weekly lows and is closing the day below the 0.8000 handle and having marked daily low at  0.7956.

Technically speaking the pair is showing bearish signs on the four-hour time frame. The price is moving well below its bearish 20-day SMA, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are staying flat and are providing good support levels. RSI and stochastic are located below their mid-lines and both had lost directional strength. 

Key support is seen at 0.7965 and if breaking below it, the pair could be dragged even lower towards 0.7930. Strong challenge for the bulls remains the psychological level 0.8000 and in case of conquering it, next target would be 0.8035.

GBP/USD BoE boosted the Pound

It’s been a quite volatile day in the markets, with the Pound occupying the centre of the stage on the back of a hawkish BoE’s policy statement. GBP/USD marked highest level since September 2016, rising up to 1.3404, with over pips from its daily low with the release outcome. It’s interesting that the greenback failed to rally, as it was expected,  despite the good news from the US as CPI is up with 0.4% month-over-month, which lifted the year-over-year rate to 1.9%.

Technically speaking the short-term trend remains bullish. On the four-hour time frame the price accelerated through its bullish 20-day SMA, which is advancing above its current level and is gaining upward strength. Indicators are located within extreme overbought territory with RSI loosing directional strength and stochastic keeping strong bullish momentum. 

Bulls are now eyeing 1.3410 with stronger challenge ta 1.3445. The downside is limited by 1.3325/30 level, a resistance turned into support. 

Aussie extends weakness after RBA minutes and US upbeat data

Aussie continues to run on the downside and today dropper to four week  low, having marked daily low at 0.7805 with closure around 0.7820. 

The minutes of the latest RBA rate decision are hinting some disinflationary impact of the strong currency and are taking note of a potential economic slowdown in case the Australian Dollar extends the rally. 

However, the pair’s decline was much more supported by the US Dollar’s strength today due to the US upbeat retail sales report today. 

The four-hour time frame is showing that the price has crossed to below its 20-day SMA, while the 200-day SMA pushed above it. RSI ans stochastic are displaying strong bearish momentum and are currently located within oversold territories. 

Strong support is seen at 0.7785 (July’s low) and in case of breaking it, bears might attempt next one at 0.7740. Looking to upside, first resistance is located at 0.7860 and second at the physiological level at 0.7900.

Gold on risk-on mode

The precious metal erased last week’s gains against the greenback losing 1% or more than $12 for the day. XAU/USD is currently trading around $1272.70, having marked daily low at $1267 (38.2% Fibonacci retarcement of latest $1251to $1292 upleg).

The US upbeat data today supported the greenback and the US Dollar Index is seen so higher, even reaching two weeks high at 94.01. So the safe heaven demand was set on risk-on mode. Technically speaking the four-hour time frame is showing bearish signs.
The price is moving well below its 20-day SMA, while the 100-day SMA is diving a good support coinciding with the 61.8% of same Fibonacci retarcement at $1267. 
RSI and stochastic had retreated from the oversold areas but yet are far below their mid-lines. And this comes to tell that bears might enjoy their  time until breaking the Fibo 38.2% at $1276 that would bring back bulls in the game. 

EUR/JPY Meets stong support at the 100-day SMA

The EUR/JPY pair moved slightly higher today, but bulls couldn’t march beyond the daily high at 130.86, being influenced by the week Japanese yen and the US treasury yields that closed lower. 

During the afternoon the pair is keeping neutral attitude and the current market price is 130.57.

On the four-hour time frame the price has crossed to below its 20-day SMA, that is turning to downside, but yet is above the 100-day and 200-day SMAs. Stochastic has just reached its mid-line, but has sharply turned to south. RSI is also located around the middles with strong bearish slope. However indicators are not pointing any sure directional strength. For the time being critical level remains the immediate support at 129.85, where now is located the 100-day SMA. Only in case of breaking it, the pair will be poised to extend its downward movement towards 129.50 (late July’s lows). Looking to the upside as first resistance should be considered the 130.70 – 130.80 area.

EUR/USD Flirting with 1.19 ahead of NFP

The last day of the week started with strong demand for the single currently and the EUR/USD pair is flirting with 1.19 handle.

The pair is up for third consecutive week and the price is developing around its yearly high. As there no signals for upward exhaustion, the rally might extend to the critical 1.20 level.
The most important event that will stir the market today is the Non Farm Payroll (NFP) numbers that will be released later today and this could significantly impact the greenback.
Technical indicator on the four-hour time frame are showing bullish signs. The price is moving above its uptrending moving averages. RSI is nearing 70 but has lost directional strength. Stochastic has turned sharply to north and is also aiming overbought area.
A soft outcome of the jobs data will push the pair to 1.1910 with second bulls target at 1.2040.

USD/JPY The risk remains towards the downside

The USD/JPY pair was very close to 111.00 today having been supported by the US ADP employment results and the stable yields. 

However the pair retreated later to lower levels with current market price 110.66. It was somehow affected by the Fed's dovish comments,  concerning the inflation and further limiting chances of further rate hikes.  

Technically speaking the pair is showing some short term bearish signs. The price has crossed to below its 20-day SMA, while the 100-day SMA is extending its decline below the 200-day SMA and both are now well above the current level. The pair also failed to move above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its latest decline. RSI is situated around its mid-line and has turned slightly to north. Stochastic is displaying strong bearish momentum even though is around 63 mark. 

However, the risk remains towards the downside. Critical support is seen around 110.00 mark and in case of breaking it, the pair will be poised to extend its decline towards 108.80 9 (June’s low). 

Aussie couldn’t fight 0.8000

During the Asian session the AUD/USD pair pushed higher and marked daily high at 0.8042, but later retreated  to lower levels and the current market price is 0.7975. Of course strong fundamentals influenced as this drop occurred right after the RBA's monetary policy announcement. The Central Bank of Australia kept the rates unchanged at 1.5% and meanwhile expressed solicitudes about the stronger Australian dollar that would press down the inflation and growth. 

Technically speaking on the four-hour time frame the Aussie is showing some bearish signals. The price has crossed to below its 20-day SMA while the 100-day SMA is keeping slight bullish slope. Stochastic has turned sharply to south and surpassed its mid-line. RSI is also bearish but is currently located around 50. 

First support is seen at 0.7935 (last week’s low) and in case of breaking it the pair will be poised to extend its decline towards 0.7875.    

EUR/USD Turbulent around FOMC

The EUR/USD pair is acting very shaky today, having been around 1.1640 and afterwards dropped to 1.1612. But following FOMC the pair bounced to 1.1730, marking highest level for the past two and a half years.
On the four-hour time frame the price has crossed to above the 20-day SMA, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are keeping upward slopes.

Stochastic retreated from the extreme oversold area and is showing strong bullish momentum. RSI is also heading north and is nearing overbought territory.

Indicators are confirming the short term bullish trend but a slight correction is not excluded.

First support is seen at 1.1690 and next at 1.1650. Looking to the upside, resistance levels are 1.1745 and higher at 1.1790.

USD/JPY Found support at 61.8% Fibo

USD/JPY closed lower for consecutive week, dragging down on Friday to its lowest level for over a month at 111.00. The bad US macro data and falling US Treasury yields with the additional US political jitters helped the Japanese Yen to push higher. 

Technically speaking the pair found support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its latest upward leg (110.95). Meanwhile the price has crossed to below the 20-day SMA. Indicators on the four-hour time frame are located within extreme oversold area, nevertheless they had retreated slightly. Upward correction seems to be limited now, having in mind that the price is moving quite below its moving averages.

Anyway, next we are expecting important and major macro data that will stir the market and will set more clear direction for the pair.  

Aussie in power spirit

The amazing run of the Aussie finally peaked today at 0.7838, slightly above the high marked on April 17th 2016. The pair retreated from the mentioned high and is currently trading at 0.7800.

The excellent Chinese Q2 GDP data, which showed numbers beyond expectations, supported the pair with next on the list RBA, that will release the minutes of its latest meeting along with the upcoming June’s  employment data. 

The AUD/USD pair is keeping its power spirit despite the slight daily decline, having in mind that is still holding around the area of the muti months peak. 

On the four-hour time the price is developing well above its bullish 20-day SMA with the 100-day SMA turning from flat to north. RSI and stochastic had corrected from their extreme overbought conditions but yet remain well above their mid-lines. Both are neither quite bearish, neither pointing out clear direction. 

Overall the positive mood remains despite the daily retracement and bulls are targeting the 0.79 hurdle. 

GBP/USD At weekly high

On Wednesday the GBP/USD pair marked a two-week low at 1.2810, but since then we witnesses not just a recovery, but strong upward movement with a potentional fresh weekly top around 1.2975-1.2980 area.
Following Yellen’s dovish stance from Wednesday, the US dollar was seen weakened and meanwhile the UK labor market showed unexpected good numbers, which supported the pair to build this nice recovery.
On the four-hour time frame the parice has crossed to above the 20-day SMA, which has turned its direction to north. RSI and stochastic are displaying strong bullish momentum and are located within the positive territory.
Immediate support is located around 1.2930-1.2925 area and in case of breaking it to below, the pair is poised to meet net one at 1.2900.
Looking to the upside, momentum beyond the daily high could be extended towards the 1.30 mark.