ActivTrades Education: Webinars Archive

Forex trading becomes more and more popular and this activity attracts the attention of more and more people as well as education and information. To acquire knowledge about the dimensions of this matter it’s better to start with learning from experienced professionals. 

For all traders regardless of the level of knowledge and experience, the competitive online broker ActivTrades has developed an extensive webinars archive, where you can watch, completely free of charge, various webinars focusing on technical and fundamental analysis, how to trade major news events, different strategies, trading tools, trading psychology and much more. 

The ActivTrades’ webinars are led by finance professionals and experts with years of experience that will help you to enlarge your knowledge and and improve your trading strategy.

To visit and watch each and every webinar in the archive, follow this link.

Forex Psychology V

Hope

Another deceptive emotional state. While real-life hope is one of the most positive gestures, a life-saving situation, even when it comes to forex psychology, it has no place. The more you look at the market, the more impartial your assessment will be. In every open order there is hope that it will end favorably. But the market is not excited by hidden hopes, it is driven by inexorable laws. The only way to isolate feelings when deciding to open an order is to be tailored to the trader's abilities. You should not gamble on amounts that can not be risked and rely on "secure" entry setup.

Fear, uncertainty, addiction, greed, euphoria - all emotional states that can be related to the discipline of Forex psychology. What unites them is their negative impact on objectivity in forex trading. The excited, enthusiastic, insecure, dependent trader does not perceive the market adequately. His decisions are not the result of an impartial analysis of the situation, but are heavily influenced by the emotion that is currently in the hands of him. Many forex traders believe that the ideal option is to completely overcome emotions. Unfortunately, this is bound to the impossibility.

Forex Psychology IV

Greed

This is the leader of feeling in trading. It is important to follow the chosen strategy and close the deals when the price reaches the specified level, but this is not really that easy. Seeing the profit, the sense of satisfaction goes into greed. By itself, trade is a process of making money, which naturally provokes trader greed, and that is why it is not easy to fight it. The way to achieve this is only through patience.

Euphoria

This is one of the most treacherous emotional states when talking about forex psychology. It is a phenomenon that generally is considered to be a positive emotion in life. If the order develops positively and even more when it ends with profit, the investor does not need to immediately attack the market again, enthusiastic about the sense of infallibility. Euphoria blurres the mind, making it difficult to take adequate and objective decision-making solutions. It should not be forgotten that even the "most secure" order can be reversed. No one is so great as to overpower the market continuously. No one is greater than the market.

Forex Psychology III

Uncertainty

First of all, uncertainty. Transitioning from demo to real account should be simple. But just then comes and the fear and you are starting to realize its power. That's what makes you feel insecure  and uncertain in yourself and consequently you miss the great opportunities that the market provides.

Fear

Fear is a condition that can be both beneficial and harmful. On one hand, the deterrent effect of fear is able to guard against reckless actions in trade. On the other hand, uncertain and timid actions will never lead to success. What is the medicine against fear in forex? It is the same as with all other negative emotions – rational parameters of the order and discipline.

Addiction

It appears that genetic predisposition to addictions of individuals is essential, along with the social prerequisites. In forex any gain provokes the player to return immediately to the market, proud of himself and his abilities, confident in the commercial genius, ready for new exploits and new more robust gains. Any loss in turn evokes the feeling of revenge; his recent return to the market will prove that the mistake will not be repeated and that these accidents are temporary and he is a profitable trader.

Forex Psychology II

Regardless of what the forex trader's decisions are based on - a fundamental or technical analysis, an internal sensation or one's own intuition whenever he enters the market feelings and emotions are rising.  According to experts in psychology and also active participants in the exchange trade, the actions of successful traders are the result of premeditated plans. Adhering to these built-in safety rules helps keep concentration and an objective view of trade to recognize market trends and changes in them at the right time. It is important that the rules are clear and simple, sufficiently flexible and adaptable to market conditions, as this will show their effectiveness in making a specific decision in complex situations. They become an important part of the winning forex trading strategy.

Undoubtedly, participation in capital markets is a high-stress process. But there are certain emotional states that are considered as elements of forex psychology and the following articles will show how exactly they influence.

Forex Psychology I

Every good Forex trader understands the importance of psychology, since currency trading is an exclusively intellectual challenge. It is not enough to learn basic concepts and processes related to the foreign exchange market. The success or failure of the participants is largely determined by their ability to control and control their emotional state and behaviour. It takes strong discipline to cling to  the chosen strategy and to follow unswervingly the rules for risk management. Without solid risk management even the best forex trading strategy would not lead to the desired success.

Is there a right strategy and how different emotional states as elements of forex psychology could influence will be discussed in the next four articles.

EUR/USD Lower

The US dollar resumed gains today supported by the rising US treasury yields. The EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.23189 but found support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest January to February bullish run. 

The pair bounced few pips higher and currently is trading at 1.2335. The recovery is quite unsustainable as the pair failed to fight back the 23.6% of same Fibo retracement from where hesitated last Friday.

On the four hour time frame the price crossed to below its 20-day bearish SMA and the flat 100-day SMA. RSI is located around 38 and has lost directional strength. Stochastic bounced from its extreme negative territory but yet remains below 20.

According to above readings the short term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish. 

First support is provided by the 200-day SMA at 1.23 and next at 1.2270. Looking to the upside resistance is seen at 1.2380 (the flat 100-day SMA) and higher at 1.2400.

EUR/NZD Closing outside of the wedge

Since June 27 EUR/NZD has entered into ascending channel, but the pair abandoned it in mid December. Bulls attempted to enter into it again, but failed. Currently the pair is trading at 1.7045, the point of the exit from the channel and the staring base of the wedge formation. 

As clearly seen on the daily chart the top side took shape and the price is about to close outside of it. Another confirmation for the rising bulls' froce is the importance of this level, support turned into resistance. RSI and stochastic are floating within warm positive territories with strong upward momentum. Short term support is provided by the 100-day SMA at 1.6894, around which the price was hovering around last week. To confirm the bullish bias in the long term bulls should conquer at least the 1.7450 handle in order to get back into the uptrend channel. 

EUR/USD Slightly up today

Recently EUR/USD is seen in consolidation within a relatively wide range between June’s high and  low, respectively at 1.13 and 1.1118.
Today the pair is slightly up, having marked around 0.10% higher with current market price 1.1143. In term of marco news, this week is not offering much except US home sales figures for May, that will be released later on today. In case of positive numbers, the pair could take interesting move, but more interesting now is DXY’s and yields’s performance which are much more now supporting the greenback.

Despite the intraday uplifted mood, technically speaking the bears are ruling the game.

On the four-hour time frame the price is developing around the 200-day SMA but below the 20-day and 100-day SMAs. RSI has retreated from oversold area and is nearing its mid-line. Stochastic is uptrending, but remains below its mid-line. 

Immediate support is seen at the critical 1.1110 level and in case of breaking it, additional declines are expected. 

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USD/JPY at extremely overbought conditions

During the last week the USD/JPY pair continued to climb up and topped at 110.91. Today the pair is seen even higher and marked an intraday high at 111. 33, a level that has not been visited since late May. In the short term the downward movement seems to be limited, as 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages remain well below the current level.

As it is clearly seen on the H4 the technical indicators are placed at extreme overbought area. RSI is starting some correction from the overbought area, while stochastic is showing lack of momentum.

The bias remains bullish for testing 111.50. A clear break and daily close above this level could trigger further upside pressure towards 113.50 this week. The nearest support is located at 110.35. A possible break below that area could lead the pair to neutral trading levels with testing 109.80, but still the bulls possess the short term development for the upcoming days. 

Gold posted new fresh low

While the US dollar is boosted today by stronger economic data along with the rising expectations of Fed’s rate hike, gold prices plummeted and hit a new fresh low.

XAU/USD pair was sliding downwards for sixth consecutive session and pressured mainly by the US dollar strength extended its fall to reach an intraday low at $ 1265. The pair crossed the 100-day moving average as well as the key support level at $ 1300. It is important to mark that gold prices have not visited significant lows since end of May 2016, when tumbled to $ 1198.

As seen on the daily chart, gold has formed five waves descending line and is currently riding the third one at $ 1351. The Stochastic is showing oversold market and RSI neared negative area. Expecting corrective movement towards $1300/1305 area. Resistance is now located at $ 1300 and $ 1318. Support is seen at $ 1268 and $ 1250.

GBP/USD slumped to mid point of 1.29 mark

During yesterday’s session GBP/USD pair was quite hesitant but overall still manages to retain the bearish bias. Following the BoJ’s statement this morning the pair slumped to 1.2945, but shortly afterwards retreated to 1.2967. The policy framework presented today by BoJ to keep rates unchanged fueled the US dollar’s strength and pushed the USD index 0.25% higher.

Fist resistance that should be considered is located at 1.3050, above which 1.3100 would be tested. On the downside, a clear break and daily close below 1.2900 might bring the price down to test 1.2790. As long as the pair stays below 1.3500, the bearish scenario is still is pace.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY attempted to push higher during yesterday’s session, reached an intraday high at 102.75 but closed lower at 102.07. In the early trading hours today the pair visited the lower level and hit 101.70. The short-terms expectations remain to downwards for testing the support located at 101.50 - 101.15. Immediate resistance is seen at 102.50. A clear break above that area could lead the pair to neutral trading zone but still the bearish scenario is more preferable. On the downside, a clear break  and daily closing below 101.15 will target the 100.00 - 99.50 area next week.

Oil production in OPEC dropped to 3-month low in August

Oil production in the OPEC dropped to 3-month low in August, according to the preliminary data. The production in the cartel has decreased by 200 thousand barrels a day to 33 million barrels a day in August, which is the lowest level since May. The OPEC data will be officially presented on Monday, but before the official publication some corrections might be expected.

The decline in production is due to decreases in the production of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar. Some representatives of the organization state that the countries lower the record-high yields and are ready to cooperate for the sake of possibly freezing yields. Later this month this will be discussed at a meeting in Algeria.

The yield in Iran remains at 3.6 million barrels per day in August - as in May. The Islamic Republic said it wants to increase production to over 4 million barrels per day. Some OPEC officials claim that Tehran has already reached that level.

The output in Venezuela has decreased by 200 thousand barrels per day this year and the last two months has stabilized to 2.1 million barrels per day. Production in Algeria and Libya in August decreased respectively by 9000 barrels per day and 28 thousand barrels per day.

Only Iraq and Nigeria have significant increases. Authorities in Baghdad have reported OPEC that the yield increased by 32 thousand barrels per day to 4.64 million barrels a day in August. In Nigeria the production increased by 186 thousand barrels per day to 1.46 million barrels per day.

The rules

Warren Buffett, George Soros, Jesse Livermore, Edwin Lefevre, John J. Murphy, Lewis Allen, Peter Lynch, Adam Smith. There men have only one thing in common – they are the greatest market players.

If you want to be like them, you must keep in mind the following rules:

1. Education, training, education.
2. Think about yourself.
3. Adaptation or failure.
4. The lack of a plan is a prior condition for failure. 
5. "Be like a machine".
6. Know your tools better.
7. Know yourself.
8. Profit & Loss.

These men had worked very hard to achieve their targets and be what they are known to be. So you have to work very hard in order to move forward. The experience, training and the constant adaptation to the market movements are sure conditions for success. Patience, persistence and willpower are the key factors.

The importance of trading discipline

As elsewhere, discipline plays an important role in forex trading. Successful forex traders have strong discipline. They plan each deal and then simply trade their plans. If you do not develop a clear plan for trade and follow it consistently, you will find difficulty in continuing earning money as a trader.

Doing random profitable deal, even throw away any plan you made, this may only give you some pleasure for short time, but in general making occasional deals may adversely affect the ability to maintain discipline in the long run. When you stop following your plan and be rewarded for lack of discipline, you may then believe that following the plan is not such a big deal. Unwarranted profits increased the tendency to follow any plan in the future. Positive results from this are for short and the lack of discipline always ends with a loss. 

So be disciplined, because the discipline is the key for successful trading!

GBP/USD is pushing higher

GBP/USD  continued its bullish momentum yesterday and reached an intraday high at 1.3317. As it is seen on the hourly chart, the pair formed triple bottom, which confirmed the trend reversal. During today’s  session the pair is pushing higher and bulls might conquer 1.3400 level, as US dollar is pressured by the weak NFP data, that was released today in the afternoon. Strong resistance is located at 1.3370 and if breaking above, next bulls target seems to be 1.3423. Support is seen at 1.3235 and a break below this level would drag the pair lower to 1.3224.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD marked a moderate bearish momentum yesterday and hit an intraday low at $1.1131. The short term outlook remains bearish facing $1.1100 level before targeting to $1.1000. The intraday resistance is seen at $1.1180. A clear break above it could take price to neutral trading zone, but only a clear break back above $1.1250 might disrupt the bears after falling from $1.1350. The stronger support is located at $1.1135, where previous lows were marked. The main technical outlook remains neutral. Today’s macro agenda is offering significant data from Europe and US, that could set more clear direction for the pair. 

EUR/USD

EUR/USD had a moderate bearish momentum yesterday and marked intraday low at $1.1244. The outlook remains in downward direction for testing $1.1200 - $1.1180 area. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.1310. A clear break above it could lead the price to neutral trading zone, but will keep the bullish scenario after breaking above the trend line and testing the key resistance at $1.1400. On the downside, a clear break below $1.1180 would open the door to $1.1080  - $1.1050 area. Overall the technical outlook for EUR/USD remains neutral.