Gold edged lower

In the early NA session on Friday gold surged to $1280, but the upbeat PMI data caused some pressure to XAU/USD and edged the week at $1270. 

Throughout of this week, the gold prices were moving within a tight range, supported by the greenback’s hesitation after the FOMC minutes, that showed nothing new and the other big news around Fed, the new head, by the moment of release was priced in. 

As seen on the daily chart, the price yet remains within the bullish channel, started from mid December 2016, but now is very close to the bottom side. Stochastic has retreated from the extreme oversold area, but is yet far below its mid-line. RSI is also in negative territory and has lost directional strength. 

First support is offered by the 200-day SMA at $1260 and in case of breaking it to below, doors are opened for testing the support trend of the channel at $1255. 

Gold At Six Week High

Following the US President elect press conference the gold prices are showing further up-move and crossed the psychological handle at $1200. Gold is currently trading at $1205, the highest level since November 23rd and a six week high. 

Donald Trump didn’t offer much on his speech and more important is that he didn’t share any details on his on-coming economic plans to increase growth. Amid the planted disappointment among the markets, the US dollar suffered and was exposed to broad sell-off. The weakened US dollar boosted the interest for the gold investments.

If closing above $1193 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest 1304-1122 decline), gold prices are poised to extend the upward march towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $1215. On the downside weakness is seen around the support line at $1165 (23.6% of same Fibonacci retracement) and a daily close below it, bears will target $1150 area.

Bullion Rolling in the deep, but the fever pitch will be set by Fed

Yesterday the precious metal touched a level, that has not been visited since February 2016 and marked a 10-month low at $1151. A fresh breath was taken today with a slight elevation towards $1164 -65 area, but it couldn’t last long. Currently Gold is trading at $1158.

The demand for safe-heavens seems now to be fading away, undermined by the  European equity markets that are tending to positive mood. Meanwhile the prospects of the upcoming Fed’s decision on rate hike actions will set additional pressure on Gold. The technical outlook shows price well below the moving averages. RSI is around 37 level and displaying lack of momentum. Stochastic has recovered form the negative territory but sill is supporting the bearish sentiment.

Immediate support is seen at $1151.30 (yesterday’s low). Resistance is located at $1165 and higher at $1180. 

Gold above $1.335

Gold prices were rolling in the shallows of a familiar area due to the lack of enough significant catalyst that could stir the markets and set a clear direction. The Brexit wave surged volatily in markets, but during the past four sessions the safe heaven was seen in consolidative tone, as yet investors are trapped by the uncertainty.

Yesterday gold was trading around $1,1315, but today’s session echoed with firm gains and the bulls are mastering the short-term run. The key resistance at $1.336 (26th Jun 2016 high) was broken and continuation of the upside movement is expected towards $1,358 and $1,372. Major support is located at $1.1317 (20-day SMA).

                                Chart XAU/USD H4

Glowing dawn or the ultimate bubble

“When interest rates are low we have conditions for asset bubbles to develop, and they are developing at the moment. The ultimate asset bubble is gold.”
These words came from George Soros in 2010. 
But something shifted the sentiments in his heart or he was attracted by the crackling sound of the golden mines. During the first quarter of the year George Soros cut by 37% US stock holdings owned by Soros Fund Management and purchased $ 264 million worth shares of the world's largest gold miner Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE: ABX). 

In December 2015 gold price was flirting around $1050 level. As gold was staying logged into this low, we witnessed incredible sell-offs. All market participants were wondering whether gold mining companies could survive and this put the question how exactly is their profit. But at this time gold miners were not the losers. In particular Barrick Gold’s net production price in December 2015 was $850 per troy ounce.

XAU/USD D1

GDX 1Y

Several circumstances influence the gold strength and could support it in future.

Fears surrounding China’s economy, the currency devaluation and the capital outflow led to risk off tone in markets. While these volatile factors exist, Fed will keep its dovish policy. And as long as geopolitical risk persists, gold will sustainably grow.

The bond markets are yielding negative and a third of the sovereign debt has a negative yield.BoJ and ECB keep the negative interest rate policy and both have reached the largest increase in sub-zero yielding government debt. 

And last, but not least the trend of the accelerating government bonds that have zero to negative return.

It’s not clear yet how fundamental factors will shift in the nearest future, but in the long term gold will shine brighter.

Gold, pressure, adrenalina

Since the beginning of the year we witnessed a brilliant golden performance. Up ahead in the distance a shimmering light embraced first quarter and shined through the amazing 15.8% increase.

Last December gold was knocked down, reaching $1050, but quickly recovered and pinned new highs at $1282 in February and $1305 in April.

From technical viewpoint the February rally significantly pushed the price up and set bears calm, as they have been at large for the last two and a half years.

But the fundamental aspect caught traders in a landslide, facing a silhouette of bewilderment, as US economy strongly blows the wind of change. Fed’s rate hike definitely sube la adrenalina.

The sense of a suspense shivered and shadowed. So now gold walks the empty street on the boulevard of broken dreams. The restless stream is now caught up within the sound of silence.

Currently gold prices are under huge selling pressure during the last six sessions.  

The strong support located at the 55-day EMA was conquered and gold split the doubts that for shortly could move up, even hit intraday high at $1234.30. In elevated perspective, the resistance is planted in $1250.00 level and a vision of softly creeping breakout could lead the price towards $1265.00. A step back is very likely to support-turned-resistance at $1243.00.The short term rally could bring some small profits, but gold will loudly break the sound of silence in the long term run.

Gold futures fell sharply

Gold futures fell sharply today amid increased interest in riskier assets after Japanese stocks jumped by 7% this morning.

The April contracts of yellow metal dropped by 2.3 % or $28.20 to $ 1211.10 per ounce, after last week recorded its biggest jump from December 2011 onwards as added 7.10 % to its value, which today caused extended  sales.

Gold was shining with a fourth weekly gain amid the crushing global equities, the collapse of  crude prices and the weaker dollar. The fate of the global economy has revived the safe-haven status of gold after years of being treated like the underdog on financial markets.

Last week gold deliveries for April raised with 7.03% and on Friday ended at $1,239.10 an ounce on New York's Comex. Last week they were seen at $1,1157.70 an ounce.

Gold rises slightly

Today gold is attempting to increase after reached yesterday more than five-year low during a temporary retreat of the dollar, which eased pressure on raw materials and make the gold more affordable for buyers using other currencies.

Yesterday representatives of the Federal Reserve continued to hint for a rates hike in December after seven years of near-zero levels. They expressed confidence that the markets will accept the changes smoothly, despite some concerns about a sharp reaction.

Gold spot price is $ 1077 per ounce compared with yesterday's drop to $ 1064.95, which is the lowest value since the beginning of 2010.
U.S. housing starts in October fell to a seven-month low assingle-family home construction in the South tumbled, but a surge in buildingpermits suggested the housing market remained on solid ground.

The dollar today retreated from seven month highs due to withdrawing gains.

Gold fell to 3-month low

Gold fell to a three-month low on Wednesday session, after failing to take advantage of a weaker dollar. The precious metal remains under pressure due to the expected increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve.The spot price of gold fell 0.5% to $ 1084.61 per ounce. This is the lowest level since August 7th.

US futures for delivery in December fell by $ 3.60 to 1084.90.Pressure also remained on platinum, which fell for tenth consecutive session of decline and reached its lowest level since December 2008. It is trading at around $ 875 per ounce.Palladium registered a decline and fell by 3.5 % to $ 574.25.

Silver is also in the red area. The metal fell to 14.20 - the lowest price since late August.
"If there (is) a December rate hike, the next question is what's the path, is the Fed going for at least three further increases of 25 basis points but the end of 2016," Societe Generale analyst Robin Bhar said. "In that case,gold will definitely see a move down towards $1,050."

Gold price is slighlty down

Gold fell today after four consecutive days of growth, caused by uncertainty about the fate of the Chinese economy. The spot price went down to $ 1136 per troy ounce after yesterday's one-week peak of $ 1147.

the long-drawn losses in Asian markets can redirect resources to the yellow metal to support it, especially after yesterday it showed that factory activity in the US hit a two-year low in August and earlier it was reported that same sector in China has shrunk last month with the highest rate for the last three years.

The markets' attention is directed to the US jobs data for August, which will go out on Friday. Strong data will reinforce the opinion that there will be an increase in interest rates of the Federal Reserve. This will become clear after the meeting on 16 and 17 September.