USD/CAD Gaining positive traction

USD/CAD pushed below key 1.30 psychological mark yesterday after the upbeat Canadian economic data, especially the better than expected monthly GDP growth numbers. The pair managed to find some support at 1.1280 and today is trading higher with current market price 1.3018.
Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its moving averages. RSI is showing slow bullish momentum and is close to its mid-line. Stochastic is displaying strong upward movement above its mid-line.
The pair will meet first resistance at 1.3040, which if broken, the upward recovery could be extended towards 1.3095-1.3100 area. The downside remains supported by the 1.30 handle and lower at 1.2985.
While the Loonie is influenced by the weaker oil prices , the US dollar is gaining positive traction and  is getting more attractive ahead of today’s FOMC monetary policy decision and a good set of US economic releases - ADP report on private sector employment, ISM manufacturing PMI and the official EIA crude oil inventories report, which will bring fresh impetus. 

USD/CAD Upbeat Canadian data supported the Loonie

The USD/CAD is trading around 1.3130, having marked  1.08 % down for the day after upbeat Canadian economic data today. Inflation is up with 2.5% for June, beating the expectations for 2.4% and retail sales also showed better than expected figures - 2.0% rise in May against the forecasted 1.1%. Meanwhile the US dollar still suffers because of Trump’s comments on Fed’s policy that rate hikes are causing troubles on the economic progress.

Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains bearish. On the four hour time frame the prices is developing below its flat moving averages. RSI is locates at 38 and has lost directional strength. Stochastic is displaying strong downward slope and has entered into oversold area. 

The pair fell with almost 140 pips today from its daily high, surpassed the 1.3155 support area and is suggesting a slowdown of the bullish trend. Should the pair break the next support at 1.3110 then doors are opened for testing 1.3065.

Loonie broke 1.3100 on BoC’s rate hike

Bank of Canada raised the key rate by 25 bps to 1.50%, as it was largely anticipated. The Bank keeps its projection for close to 2% GDP growth over 2018-2020 and sees unprtentious effects of tariffs on economic growth and prices. As the time of writing the USD/CAD pair is trading at 1.3117, correcting from the 3-week low at 1.3065 on the rate hike announcement from BoC. Technically apeaking the short term outlook remains neutral to bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below the flat 50-day and 100-day SMAs and also the flat 20-day SMA is marching with the current price.RSI and stochastic are showing bearish momentum but yet remain above their mid-lines. 

Stong support is provided by the 1.3100 level which was for shortly broken today. The pair vulnerable around this area so I expect another test and in case of success bears will try next one at 1.3064. Looking to the upside first resistance is seen at 1.3174 and second at 1.3193.

USD/CAD Spiked higher above 1.30

The USD/CAD pair surged through the psychological 1.3000 handle today and the rally surpassed the late March high at 1.3046. The bulls reached daily high at 1.3066 but retreated to currently trade at 1.3010 however adding 100 around pips for the day.
The strong bullish mode came after the gloomy Canada’s Q1 labor productivity data weakening the Canadian dollar while better than expected figures on US ISM's non-manufacturing PMI data fuelled the greenback.

Technically speaking the short term outlook remains neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing well above its moving averages with all of them aiming north. RSI and stochastic are showing strong bullish momentum although both are located slightly above their mid-lines.

A daily close above the late March’s high at 1.3046 will bring additional strength for bulls to test the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017 bearish run at 1.3127. On the other hand the profit-taking provoked by the latest rally might lead USD/CAD lower. In case of closing below 1.3000 barrier, which is providing first support now, deeper decline is expected towards 1.2910 – the 50% of above mentioned Fibo.

USD/CAD Bulls are eyeing 1.2800

USD/CAD bounced from the daily lows around 1.2750 and is advancing towards 1.2800. The US bulls resumed their march to the upside, supported by the rising US yields, while the Canadian dollar  gave away gains after the backing of WTI latest highs.
Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing between its flat SMAs. Stochastic is recovering from extreme oversold area and has turned to north although is yet below 20. RSI is showing good upward momentum and is nearing its mid-line.
However to resume the bullish trend the pair will need to retake the resistance provided by the 100-day SMA at 1.2840 and then to fight the 50% Fibonacci retracement of 2017 bearish run at 1.2930. Further on doors are opened for testing the May’s high at 1.2996. Looking to the downside first support is offered by the 61.8% Fibo of same retracement at  1.2730 and next one is seen at 1.2650.

USD/CAD Rebounded from the post-FOMC lows

USD/CAD suffered huge drop yesterday because of the main markets’driver - the Fed's rate hike. The pair extended its downward slope to mark an intraday low at 1.2825 but it seems that markets already digested the news and the US dollar started to recover. And this combined with weaker oil prices that weigh on the Canadian dollar pushed the pair back above 1.2900.
On the four hour time frame the price has is developing below the bearish 20-day SMA and slow bearish 200-day SMA. RSI and stochastic have retreated from their extreme oversold readings and both are showing strong upward momentum.
Currently the pair is trading at 1.2905 but according to indicators has potential to move higher. First target comes at 1.2925 – 1.2935 – 50% Fibonacci retracement of latest 2017 bearish run and also flat 100-SMA. Further on bulls should aim 1.2950 – 1.2960 are and with a break to the upside doors are opened for testing the psychological 1.3000 hurdle.
The downside is supported by 1.2825 (the daily low) and lower at 1.2800 (last week’s bottom).

USD/CAD Breaks above 1.27

Since the beginning of the week USD/CAD is gaining upside strength and today the pair advanced much farther to mark new fresh 2018 high at 1.2757. The hawking FOMC minutes yesterday boosted the greenback while the Canadian neighbour suffered from worst than expected retails sales figures.

On the four hour time frame the price is developing well above its bullish 20-day and 100-day SMAs and currently is trading at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of  the 2017 bearish run.
RSI is consolidating around its 70, while stochastic warns us to be cautious because has retreated from its extreme overbought readings and and is showing strong bearish momentum although is located around its 80.
To resume the uptrend for a longer term bulls should make a decisive break through the 50% of same Fibo at 1.2930. Until then the downside will be protected initially by the 23.6% Fibo at 1.2470 followed by the yearly low at 1.2240.

USD/CAD Looking for direction ahead of BoC

USD/CAD pair has lost directional strength and is seen in narrow trading range today slighty above the 1.24 mark. It seems that market participants are not likely to take part ahead of Wednesday's BoC monetary policy decision. The 85% probability per Bloomberg for rates hike will boost the CAD’s strength but in case BoC postpone hikes for the next meeting the USD/CAD would be poised to test the resistance provided by the 38.2% Fibo retracement of latest bullish run at 1.2585. Lookind to the downside first support is seen at the psychological barrier at  1.24, below which the pair might extend its downward slope towards the 61.8% Fibo of same retracement at 1.2385.