USD/JPY In limited range ahead of BoJ and Fed this week

USD/JPY is trading almost unchanged from Fliday’s closing level with current market price 111.07 ahead of the upcoming BoJ and Fed meetings, scheduled to decide on monetary policy this week.
Technically speaking the short term outlook remains neutral. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below the bearish 50-day SMA and the flat 100 –day SMA, while the 20-day SMA, also flat, is proving immediate support few pips below the current price.  RSI is located at its mid-line and has lost directional strength. Stochastic      is showing strong upward momentum around 65 level.
The downside offers strong support at 110.60 provided by last week’s low while the upside is challenged by 111.40.
The pair may continue with no significant progress until BoJ’s policy meeting tomorrow, followed by Fed’s meeting on Wednesday, which will bring fresh development and signals.

EUR/USD Quiet ahead of ECB

Fed-related negative mood from late last week keeps holding most majors. EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1700 and currently has settled at 1.1687. The pair continues trading within tight range with no clear clues. On the four hour time frame the price is developing above its flat moving averages. RSI has lost directional strength and is located around its mid-line. Stochastic has turned sharply to downside and is showing strong bearish momentum. Bulls continue the fight for the 1.1700 level although the selling pressure remains strong between 1.1750 and 1.1720. The downside remains supported by 1.1685 and lower at 1.1650. Most likely the big movement will come on Thursday, when the ECB has its monetary policy meeting.

AUD/USD Above 0.7400 ahead of Powell's speech

The AUD/USD pair is trading within tight range today around 0.7400, having marked daily high at 0.7437 during the Asian session. During the early trading hours the RBA meeting minutes revealed that the next move on rates in Australia will likely be up, once the unemployment lowers and inflation marks growth. Meanwhile the US dollar is gaining strength ahead of US federal Reserve’s chairman Jerome Powells testimony in Congress later on today.
Technically speaking the short term outlook remains neutral. On the four hour time frame the price is developing between its flat moving averages. RSI and stochastic are displaying bearish slopes slightly below their mid-lines and still remain far from extreme negative territories. According to above readings a risk of downward continuation will appear only is case of breaking the support at 0.7370 en route to next one at 0.7330. On the other hand bulls could get some love if pushing above the daily high and then next target will be offered by the resistance at 0.7490.

USD/JPY Remains bullish despite the dovish Fed

It’s all about Fed today. As widely expected the Central Bank left the interest rate unchanged but markets took their time to react on the dovish statement before the US Dollar dropped.

Well it’s hard to define the future as know or unknown. The Fed didn’t say that the outlook has improved. If the prospects are not better, there is no reason to accelerate increasing rates. Also  chances for a June hike after the statement seem to have disappeared. On the other hand the use of moderation word, copied from the ECB President Mario Draghi is a way to describe the slowdown. Meanwhile the US dollar gained strength during the past weeks and the hours before FOMC and this comes along with rising bond yields. This combination of fact and words after all pushed the greenback lower but it seems that this would be short lived.

USD/JPY fell to 109.60 as a reaction of Fed’s decision but then bounced to currently trade at 109.95. Technically speaking the short-term outlook remain neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing above its bullish moving averages.RSI and stochastic retreated from their extreme overbought areas although remain flat within the positive territories. 

As long as the pair holds above 109.00 handle, the trend favors the upside with next target for the bull at 110.00, which if broken to above would open doors for testing the February’s hi at 110.45.

Gold unable to extend the post-Fed gains

Following the Fed’s rate hike decision gold prices surged and marked one week high at the level $1259.00, but today is seen few pips lower, hovering around a neutral space at $1255.00. The US Dollar’s selling pressure is relieved by the uptick in the US Treasury bond yields which further impedes the gold bulls.
On the four hour time frame XAU/USD crossed to above its 20-day SMA that is starting to turn north while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are showing bearish slopes. RSI has reached 60 level but currently is changing the direction. Stochastic is displaying strong bullish momentum and is located within extreme overbought territory and some exhausture exhaustion begins to emerge.
Immediate support comes at $1250.00, below which bears are likely to test $1247.00. Looking to the upside first resistance is provided by the daily high at $1259.00 and in case bulls succeed to regain this level, next target is the 200-day SMA at $1267.00.
Later in the day monthly retail sales and initial jobless claims are due from the US and in case of affected greenback, fresh impetus would be given to the precious metal.

EUR/USD Remains bearish ahead of NFP

The EUR/USD pair continues to suffer and today extend its decline to 1.775 with current market price 1.1777. The marco agenda today counld’t affect much the pair’s behavior as NFP day tomorrow will provide larger impact. And having ECB and Fed meetings next week we will witness really thrilling development on the pair.

On the four hour time frame the price is situated below flat 100-day SMA and bearish 20-day SMA, while the 200-day SMA is keeping neutral stance and is provide support at 1.1745. RSI is located within negative territory and is showing bearish momentum. Stochastic is displaying extreme oversold conditions, below 20 level and has lost directional strength.

With US Senate intending to extend the debt ceiling and avoid a government shutdown and US dollar might add some fuel, otherwise the pair is poised to extend its decline towards the support at 1.1715, having the expectations of NFP tomorrow. 

USD/JPY At the upper side of its range on higher US Treasury yields

The US President Donald Trump is feeling enthusiastic about Taylor and the expectations for the next Fed’s rate hike rose after Janet Yellen’s comments during the weekend.  Following these events yesterday  the US Treasury yields skyrocketed to highest level since November 2008.
Today the USD/JPY is backed up the extended advance on the US Treasury yields and is trading at the upper side of its range.
Thechnically speaking seems that the pair has not enough stregth to climb significanlly higher. On the four hour time frame the price has topped at the 100-day SMA, acting as a dynamic resistance at 112.46, which is also the daily high. The pair couldn’t cross to above the 100-day SMA , but meanwhile remains above the 20-day SMA, that is staying flat around 112.00 and is providing first support level. Stochastic has turned sharply to south, but yet remains within extreme overbought territory. RSI also retreated from the north area and eased around it mid-line.
Nevertheless I’m positive on further advance for the pair , but first bulls should conquer the October 6th’s high at 113.43.  

EUR/USD The bearish momentum remains strong

EUR/USD is extending its downward movement after breaking yesterday below the 1.18 handle. The  pair marked over a month low with current market price 1.1738 and is nearing the 1.17 area, as there are no major releases from the euro area and yet the US dollar is keeping its upward strength after Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech.   
From technical view point, the pair confirmed the bearish downfall. On the four hour time frame the price is moving well below its moving averages with 20-day SMA keeping strong bearish slope and the 100-day and 200-day are staying flat. Both RSI and stochastic are located within extreme oversold territory.
The pair reached daily low today at 1.1730 and despite the slight correction, the bearish momentum remains strong. From the current level, EUR/USD is meeting immediate support at 1.1720 and in case of breaking it, the pair will be poised to extend its decline towards 1.1700 – 1.1690.
All eyes now on the key release of US durable goods data later on today with expectation for better figures for August which respectively would support the US dollar bulls. 

USD/JPY Higher ahead of Nikkei PMI

USD/JPY is currently trading at 109.57, up with 0.55% for the day, having posted daily high at 109.63 and low at 108.87, which was the session opening. The US macro data that was released today showed positive numbers and a small increase in the US Treasury yields was seen today along with the worldwide equities recovery. 

Next on the calendar of macro news are the speeches of the central bankers Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi and Japan’s preliminary Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for August. So definitely I expect an intersting development for the USD/JPY pair next days.

The four-hour time frame is showing upward momentum. The price crossed to above its bearish 20-day SMA, which is easing its downside slope. Meanwhile the pair remains below the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, both trending downwards. Stochastic is displaying strong bullish momentum nad has entered into extreme overbought territory. RSI is also aiming higher, but  is currently located around its mid-line. 

First support is seen at 108.87 (the daily low) and next at 108.55 (Friday’s low). Looking to the upside, good resistance is provided by the 100-day SMA at 110.00 and higher at 110.35.

USD/JPY Retreats after having marked fresh 2-week high

Central Banks' decisions from past days boosted USD/JPY and today the pair marked fresh new two weeks high at 111.40. Fed announced that will lift up the interest rate with another 0.25 and BoJ hinted about a chance in the future to retrieve easing and holding the monetary policy steady.

However, the optimistic mood didn’t last long and ahead of Wall Street opening the pair dropped to currently trade at 110.74. It seems that bulls couldn’t conquer the critical resistance at 111.50, where now is located the 200-day SMA. 

The four-hour time frame is showing bullish 20-day SMA while the 100-day SMA is staying flat at 110.45 and is acting as a dynamic support. 

RSI and stochastic had retreated from the extreme overbought territory. Both are yet well above their mid-lines but has started to turn to south. 

As the pair broke the support at 110.90, doors are now opened for testing the next one at 110.56 (the intraday low).

Fanfares for no surprise

"The simple message is the economy is doing well". And the widely expected rate hike is now fact along with raised Fed’s target for short-term interest rates to a range of 0.75% and 1.00%.

After the event the US Dollar plummeted due to the aggressive profit - taking and then followed elevation in the other major currencies. AUD/USD is up with 1.98%, EUR/USD added 1.23% and GBP/USD moved higher with 1.14%.  

Gold was also positively affected and was trading elevated. The precious metal surged above the significant support level at $1200 and marked a 1-and-a-half week high at $1228.76.
I do not trade news, but it was quite interesting to be only observer in a situation alarming for attention.

EUR/USD Ahead Of Fed's Meeting

The latest ECB’s decision on economic policy sent the EUR/USD pair back to the camp of bears and very close to the yearly low marked on 4th of December at 1.0504. The pair is currently situated at 1.0560 mark and is finding difficulties to move above 1.0600 area. 

The 20-day EMA on the H4 chart is indicating strong bearish momentum. RSI is close to 30 level and confirm the bearish trend. Stochastic is showing extreme oversold conditions but still displaying lack of momentum.

By the end of the week the pair has gone under 38.2% (1.0808) and 23.6%  (1.0690) Fibonacci retracement of October’s high and December’s low, both key levels for the bears. 

From technical viewpoint the sentiment remains in favor of the ongoing bearish trend. But the next week will be very significant for the forex market as Fed’s economy policy meeting will be held on Wednesday. What will be Yellen’s decision and will the dollar’s rally be halted or will be seen in new highs, will be known very soon.

EUR/USD Poised To Extend Slide

Yet another set of selling pressure fell upon the EUR/USD pair today. The US dollar is getting stronger, the pair is marking its lowest level for the last almost 12 months and is currently trading at 1.0556.

The US marco data released today posted positive numbers, much better than expected. The FOMC minutes from today’s meeting are confirming the market attitudes for the upcoming rates hike. Given above the US dollar’s elevation seems to be reasonable.

During the afternoon trading the pair posted intraday low at 1.0523 even though shortly afterwards managed to recover slightly.

Technical readings are showing oversold market. RSI is placed at 30% area, while stochastic is displaying strong bearish momentum. 

Currently the EUR/USD pair is exposed to further downward slope, having in mind that is placed below 1.0600 area and also below the moving averages. 

Immediate resistance is seen at 1.0605, where now is lying the 20-day SMA. Support is located at 1.0525 and lower at 1.0500. 

Shining Dawn Tumbles Down

While markets are relatively calm now as Trump’s victory seems to be digested, Gold is extending sell-offs and slided downwards to pin lowest level, not seen since May 2016. Furthermore we have two key factors, that have influenced negatively to the precious metal – the sell-off in treasuries and the rising expectations of the forthcoming Fed rate-hike action.

Technical indicators are showing oversold conditions. RSI is sliding around 30% and stochastic is placed within extreme low values and is displaying weak bearish momentum. 

At the time of writing XAU/USD is trading at $1207 and has crossed the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $1210, acting as a strong support. Meanwhile the 50-day moving average crossed with the 200-day moving average and has passed below it. This could only increase the pressure on Gold as this situation is interpreted differently by traders. 

In the short-term expectations remain bearish with eventual further drop to next support, located at $1172 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level).

USD/JPY: Bulls Aiming 111.00 Level

USD/JPY posted strong growth on Monday with daily gains of + 1.44%. The pair broke the important area at 107.50/107.80 and marked fresh high at 108.52.  

The Yen was influenced by the positive GDP data and Kuroda’s speech, who pointed that the inflation will rise slowly and monetary policy will not change until inflation reaches the target of 2%. Meanwhile Fed’s rate hike in December is also relevant to the pair with expectations have risen sharply after Trump’s win. 

Technically speaking, bulls are now fuelled to continue slowly upwards and test the next key resistance level at 111.00/111.60. RSI and Stochastic are placed now at overbought territory with the pair breaking the 200-day moving average, which is pointing that correction is not excluded.