USD/JPY Develops within ascendant channel

The last release of Japan’s economic growth showed weak figures and blurred the lines of Abenomics reforms, and of course reduced the likelihood of tightening the BoJ’s monetary policy in the near future. Technically speaking this weakness supported the US bulls who are already gaining strength during the last sessions. The USD/JPY today attacked the February’s high and currently is trading slightly above the 200-day SMA at 110.36. As seen on the daily chart the price is developing within the current bullish channel, that has started from late March. RSI and stochastic are showing strong upward momentum and are close to overbought areas. Meanwhile the pair is located fairly in middle of the channel, so now we should consider both the upside and down side. Reversals would  be supported by the lower bound of the channel, which currently comes at 109.40. On the other hand the more likely scenario is bullish continuation towards the resistance at 110.40, which is broken to above would open doors for testing the upper channel’s bound at 111.40.

AUD/USD Found support at 61.8% Fibo

Earlier today the Aussie dropped to its lowest level in six days, but found support at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement latest November to January bullish run at 0.7743.After bottoming exactly at this level AUD/USD bounced and reached a fresh 4-day high at 0.7795 just for few hours.

The short term outlook remains neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing its moving averages, all of them keeping flat stance. RSI and stochastic are showing strong bullish momentum and both are located slightly above their mid-lines.

The upside remains capped by the psychological 0.7800 mark, which was tested last week although bulls couldn’t fight it. Should the pair succeed to break this level, next resistance is provided by the 50% Fibo of above mentioned retracement at 0.7820. On the flip side, immediate support is provided by the 20-day SMA at 0.7770. In case Aussie close below this area, bears would meet again with the 61.8% Fibo at 0.7745. 

EUR/USD Broke to above the descendant trend line

The EUR/USD pair moved higher today and marked a weekly high at 1.1827 backed up by the weak US dollar and the lack of important fundamental news. 

Technically speaking, bulls are going to dominate the game in the short term, as the price has crossed to above the descendant trend line from the 2017 high. The line is now around 1.1777 and was a good resistance level during the past few days, but has turned to support. Furthermore the pair conquered its 20-day and 100-day SMAs, as clearly seen on the four-hour time frame. 

Stochastic is located within its overbought area and is showing strong upward momentum. RSI at around 60, having lost directional strength. 

Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1845 and in case of breaking it, next bulls’ target seems to be 1.1880.

USD/JPY The recovery seems quite unlikely

The USD/JPY pair fell today to 111.55,a level that has not been visited since June 27th having on the table the current US dollar's weakness. 

Good macro data came from the United States ahead of Wall Street's

opening, but it seems is was not too good to influence the pair. 

The four-hour time frame is showing strong bearish 20-day SMA and the price is developing below the 200-day SMA, while the 100-day SMA is staying flat around 112.91. 

RSI and stochastic are located withing extreme oversold area but had lost directional strength. 

The short term outlook remains bearish. 

First support is seen at 111.53 (the daily low) and next at 111.60. Looking to the upside, the pair challenged by 112.30 and higher at 112.70.

USD/JPY Bears run the trend

It was quite interesting day for the USD/JPY pair, which marked an impressive high at 113.054, a level not seen since mid March. But bulls gave up during the US session and led the pair towards 112.38. 

Nothing certain could be said about the greenback, having in mind that DYX moved below the 99.00 level and the catalyst should be looked around elsewhere. US stocks are lower, but succeed to trim some of their losses. US Treasury yields pushed higher and marked fresh weekly highs, which somehow limited the Japanese Yen's gains. 

Technically speaking, the pair is situated well above the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, while the 20-day SMA is keeping its bulish stance. The four-hour time-frame is showing that RSI and stochastic had moved sharply lower and are heading towards oversold area, with string bearish momentum. 

Currently the pair is unable to break the strong dynamic resistance, that is standing at 112.50. Bears are dominating now with next target seen at 112.00. 

London calling

The GBP/USD pair slipped to a fresh weekly low at 1.2418, shattered by the growing risk sentiment and more weighed by a quite Markit construction PMI, which introduced 52.2 for March, lower than February's 52.5 and not matching with market's expectations of 52.4. After Monday's weak data, today’s macro agenda printed lower construction activity in the United Kingdom in March, setting the Sterling under additional pressure. Meanwhile the trade deficit numbers from the United States are down according to the expectations, because exports has increased more than the imports did. 

On the four-hour time frame the 20-day SMA has started to turn to downwards. RSI has switched to bearish mode, as since Monday is marking lower lows and currently is situated at 41. Stochastic is displaying sharp southern slope and is located withing extreme oversold area.

It seems that the sun will not be zooming in the short-term, the Brexit error mirrors in an expected economy embarrassment.

The trend index is bearish, volatility is shrinking and the forecast bias as well points bearishness. 

Quit holding out, draw another breath and stay long at 1.245. 

A new chapter is about to be written

The week ahead is expected to be exciting as the major event that will run the markets is the US presidential elections. The first data from the elections will be released (09:00 GMT) and inevitably will impact to the financial markets not only in the US, but in Europe and Asia as well. 

Theoretically and in general terms in case of Hillary Clinton win this would bring more predictability in both foreign and domestic policy in the United States. Clinton’s campaign  was largely predicting a continuation of Obama’s economic policy with some slight additions. This will increase US dollar’s strength against the yen, Swiss franc and the euro.

Donald Trump's intentions in foreign policy and the economy so far are not very clear. Therefore in case of win, that suggests that the US dollar will fall against other major currencies.

Who will be the new US president is of great importance for the energy sector in the US. Hillary Clinton’s victory would lead to shrinking of oil production, since her vision is that we must give priority to renewable energy sources. Donald Trump favors the traditional sources of energy and if he becomes president, the expected oil production in the United States will be maintained or increased - which will affect the price of the "black gold".