AUD/USD Pushing higher after RBA left rates unchanged

The Australian Dollar is trading up with 0.54% at above 0.7427 level against the US Dollar. In line with the expectations the Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged at 1.50%. Inflation and wages remain low and the statement of the bank was broadly unchanged from the previous monetary policy meeting.
Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing above its flat 50-day and 100-day SMAs and the 20-day SMA has turned to north. RSI has eased around 65 level  while stochastic is showing strong bullish momentum and is entering extreme overbought conditions.
Now bulls are eyeing the resistance at 0.7445 which is broken will open doors for testing the next one - July 10 high at 0.7484 and higher at 0.7531. Looking to the downside the pair founds support at 0.7348 (Friday’s low), 0.7310 (July 2 bottom) and 0.7184.

AUD/USD Bearish pressure ahead of NFP

The AUD/USD pair moved higher during Asian session and marked daily high at 0.7372 after the upbeat Australian retail sales data. But during the pat hour lost upward traction and retreat to currently trade around 0.7363.  
Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains neutral to bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing its bearish 20-day SMA and flat 50-day and 100-day SMAs. RSI lacks direction around 40 level while stochastic has turned north although remains well below its mid-line.
The selling pressure has diminished for now as market participants became cautious ahead of today's key event risk – the US monthly jobs report release. So until then no significant moves are expected and it’ll become more interesting later on, especially in case with strong US jobs numbers which will further boost the bears. The short-term perspective turns towards key supports at 0.7340, 0.7320 and 0.7310.

Aussie above 0.74 ahead of NFP

After yesterday’s quite consolidation mode today AUD/USD is trading higher, up with 0.33% and current market price 0.7411. Despite the upbeat US ISM non-manufacturing PMI and the latest FOMC meeting minutes, which reconfirmed Fed’s tightening policy, the US Dollar was set under selling pressure. Meanwhile the trade war sentiments and the slump in copper prices coundn’t affect the ongoing positive momentum.

Technically speaking the short term outlook remains neutral to bullish. Ont he four hour time frame the price is developing above its flat moving averages. RSI is located above its mid-line but has lost directional strength. Stochastic is showing strong bullish momentum and is nearing oversold readings.

First bullish target is provided by the weekly high at 0.7425 followed by the psychological handle at 0.7500. The downside is supported by 0.7380 and lower at 0.7335.

Today the NFP data is due and the Unemployment rate and Average Hourly Earnings data. The first event is going to be the main markets driver and will bring higher volatility, so it’ll be interesting to observe breakouts. 

AUD/JPY Vulnerable on trade war

In true Trumpian style today the trade war was refreshed with several bew tweets concerning this time the Harley Davidson company, which has shifted some of its production overseas as a result of increased duties. In the forex market the most vulnerable currency pair in global trade concerns and risk appetite is AUD/JPY. 

During the last four months the pair is developing with a range between 84.50 and 80.50 and yet is finding stong resistance and respectively support at these levels. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its moving averages which are merging around 82.50 and are proving immediate resistance. RSI has lost directional strength around 40. Stochastic retreated from its overbought territory and is showing storng bearish momentum.

When the markets become more influenced by the trade war and thematerial impact on global economic growth, then the pair might breach the bottom boundary of the current range which will lead bears to the long term support line at 76.00. But if the spirits calm down the AUD/JPY pair migt try to break the upper boundary of same range and next bullish target around the long-term resistance at 89.00. 

AUD/USD Bears rule the trend

The AUD/USD pair tried to push higher today but bulls couldn’t advance beyond 0.7408. The Australian Westpac Leading Index showed worse than expected figures while the greenback is keeping steady levels. Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains neutral to bearish.On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its moving averages and as seen the 20-day SMA stalled the bullish aspiration. RSI is staying flat around its 30 while the stochastic is extremely bearish and is entering oversold area. Immediate support is seen at 0.7345 and if broken to below will open doors for testing 0.7250, which will offer strong long-term support line.

AUD/USD Pushed to 0.7676 and marked fresh 6-week high

The AUD/USD  pair pushed higher today extending the bullish sentiment started form May 9th. The pair surpassed the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of latest April to May bearish run and surged to daily high at 0.7676. The Australian bulls were influenced by better than expected numbers on economic growth for Q1 while the US agenda has nothing to offer but however the pair retreated slightly from the daily high along with US equities

Technically speaking the short term outlook remains neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing well above its moving averages with 20-day and 100-day SMAs aiming north and flat 200-day SMA. RSI and stochastic had eased above their mid-lines with second once one located within overbought area.

Having in mind that the pair failed to break above its daily high and directionless indicators we might see again it around the support provided by 61.8% Fibo at 0.7660. On the other hand the upcoming session will bring Australia’s AIG Performance on Construction Index for May and the April trade balance figures, which are supposed to show goodish figures  more likely will give the Aussie an additional boost. In this scenario bulls will try to fight the 0.77 level which if broken will open doors for testing 0.7740.

AUD/USD Vulnerable to deeper decline

Since April 19^th the AUD/USD pair entered into bearish trajectory and broke to below consecutively the 2016 bullish trend line and the bearish channel started from February 2018.  After having marked a new fresh 11-month low today at 0.7412, the pair bounced modesty to currently trade around 0.7450. However the pair remains vulnerable for further declines because the bears conquered the psychological support at 0.7500, now acting as a resistance. So a potential recovery might lead the price towards first resistance area at 0.7480 provided by 50% Fibonacci retracement of 2016-2018 bullish run, before nearing again this critical 0.75 mark. The downside is immediately protected by the 0.7410-0.7400, and in case the pair close below it, will be poised to extend its decline towards next support at 0.7370, which if broken will open doors for testing the 61.8% of same Fibo at 0.7327.  

EUR/AUD Developing wedge formation

With the beginning of February the EUR/AUD pair started an amazing bullish run, which peaked at 1.5815 in the middle of the month. And since then it seems than bulls decided to rest a bit deeply believing that they had accomplished the intended goals. This can be viewed as consolidation but on the four hour time frame it looks like falling wedge formation is developing. On the same chart the 20-day SMA has started to turn south accompanied by bearish stochastic and flat RSI, both last nearing oversold territories. We should take into consideration the bearish bias before assuming that the pair will act in accordance with the formation. We may witness bullish continuation only of the price break off upper line of the wedge which comes at 1.5730. On the other hand the force awakens for bears below 1.5606.

AUD/USD Bulls on pause mode under 0.80 barrier

Since the beginning of the week the AUD/USD pair has been trading in narrow range, close to the recently marked high and suggesting continuation of the the bullish trend.Today the Aussie received a goodish boost by better than expected figures from Australian macro data while the greenback is losing strength. 
The AUD/USD topped at 0.7998 during the early trading hours but failed to crack once again the psychological barrier at 0.8000. The pair retreated to reach daily low at 0.7940 but found support at the 20-day SMA and bounced from this level to currently is trading at 0.7968.
On the four hour time frame the price is developing above its bullish moving averages. Stochastic retreated from its overbought readings and is showing bearish momentum, while RSI is located at 60 and is acting quite undecided, which suggests that bulls prefer to consolidate before next attempt to conquer the 0.8000 level.  

AUD/USD Neutral to bullish ahead of US macro data

During the early European session the AUD/USD pair retreated from the two and a half month high to test the 0.78 level. The corrective slide coundn’t last long and currently the pair is trading at 0.7837 with Australian dollar backed up by the confidence in the rising equities and the positive mood of commodities,with gold and silver aiming back to their recent tops.
Technically speaking the short term outlook for the pair remains neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is moving above all its moving averages, keeping course towards north. Stochastic has retreated from its mid-line and is showing strong bullish momentum. RSI is located within extreme overbought area, but is starting to lose directional strength.
Yesterday’s high at 0.7845 comes as first resistance and is case of successful taking, next target for the bulls is seen at 0.7890-0.7900. On the flip side we must be watchful around the psychological 0.7800 handle.
The upcoming US session is offering the ISM Manufacturing PMI figures for December and the most wanted FOMC minutes, having both macro events decisive for the AUD/USD pair.  

AUD/USD Higher

Aussie gained traction today and is seen hovering around mid 0.76s amid lack  of strong fundamentals DXY extended its downward slope to a fresh two week low, backed up by weakened US dollar coming form the jitters surrounding the outcome of the tax bills reforms. 

Friday’s bottom has been left behind today’s gains and AUD/USD is entering the Asian session in uplifted mood. Since marking low at 0.75 in 8th of December, the pair has been recovering ground, supported by good macro data from Australia. 

Technically speaking, the short term outlook remains bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is moving above all its moving averages, having 20-day SMA with strong bullish momentum and flat 100-day and 200-day SMAs. RSI is located around its 60 level, but has lost directional strength. Stochastic has turned sharply to north although is at its mid-line. 

Yet the 0.7700 remains critical zone and first bulls’ challenge and in case of conquering it, doors are opened for testing 0.7730 (November’s high). 

RBA minutes are due tomorrow with expectations of no change on its current  monetary policy, but amid no major other news and weak greenback, Aussie favors to the upside. 

AUD/USD Pops up and drops down

Aussie pinned a new fresh three weeks high at 0.7653 in the early Asian session. Fantastic macro data came from Australia, having retail sales up with 0.5% from previous upwardly revised 0.1%, the Q3 current account balance posted a deficit of 9.1B, improved from previous -9.7B and alongside backed up by Caixin Services PMI printing better than expected figures.Meanwhile RBA decided to keep rates unchanged on its monthly monetary policy meeting.

But the bulls enthusiasm was short-lived as gold plummeted to two months low and added pressure on the Aussie. The AUD/USD pair dropped to 0.76 area and currently is trading at 0.7604. 

On the four hour time frame th 20-day SMA eased and from bullish has turned flat, while the 100-day and 200-da SMAs are keeping bearish slopes. Stochastic retreated from extreme oversold area and currently is showing strong bearish momentum, crossing its mid-line. RSI is located around mids and has lost directional strength. 

As seen on the same chart, the price is caught between its bearish SMAs and there is a risk to the downside. If crossing to below 0.7575 (last week’s low), the pair will be poised to extend its decline towards next support at 0.7530 (November’s low). 

Tomorrow are due numbers on Q3 GDP in Australia, with growth seen at 0.7% from previous 0.8% and this makes the pair vulnerable and gives another hesitation for Australian bulls.

AUD/USD tumbled on dovish RBA

In the early Asian session Aussie fell to 0.7530, a level that has not been visited since late June. The mover for this sharp drop is the dovish RBA minutes, as the central bankers are concerned about the job market outlook and slow growth in wages and there for will keep neutral stance for the foreseeable future.
AUD/USD rebounded from the five month low during the Europe trade and the current market price is 0.7575. The recovery was supported by RBA Governor Phillip Lowe's remarks that next move in rates would most likely be up rather than down, which fuelled the Australian Dollar bulls.
On the four hour time frame the price is below its bearish 100-day and 200-day SMAs and few pips above the 20-day SMA, also bearish. Stochastic is showing strong upward momentum and is slightly above its mid-line, while RSI is located at the mid and has lost directional strength.
The pair remains well supported by the key level at 0.7500, but if breaking it, doors are opened for testing early May’s low at 0.7330. Looking to the upside, 0.7585 is first bulls target and in case of conquering it, the pair would be seen beyond 0.7600.