USD/JPY In limited range ahead of BoJ and Fed this week

USD/JPY is trading almost unchanged from Fliday’s closing level with current market price 111.07 ahead of the upcoming BoJ and Fed meetings, scheduled to decide on monetary policy this week.
Technically speaking the short term outlook remains neutral. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below the bearish 50-day SMA and the flat 100 –day SMA, while the 20-day SMA, also flat, is proving immediate support few pips below the current price.  RSI is located at its mid-line and has lost directional strength. Stochastic      is showing strong upward momentum around 65 level.
The downside offers strong support at 110.60 provided by last week’s low while the upside is challenged by 111.40.
The pair may continue with no significant progress until BoJ’s policy meeting tomorrow, followed by Fed’s meeting on Wednesday, which will bring fresh development and signals.

USD/JPY Develops within ascendant channel

The last release of Japan’s economic growth showed weak figures and blurred the lines of Abenomics reforms, and of course reduced the likelihood of tightening the BoJ’s monetary policy in the near future. Technically speaking this weakness supported the US bulls who are already gaining strength during the last sessions. The USD/JPY today attacked the February’s high and currently is trading slightly above the 200-day SMA at 110.36. As seen on the daily chart the price is developing within the current bullish channel, that has started from late March. RSI and stochastic are showing strong upward momentum and are close to overbought areas. Meanwhile the pair is located fairly in middle of the channel, so now we should consider both the upside and down side. Reversals would  be supported by the lower bound of the channel, which currently comes at 109.40. On the other hand the more likely scenario is bullish continuation towards the resistance at 110.40, which is broken to above would open doors for testing the upper channel’s bound at 111.40.

GBP/JPY Found resistance at 23.6% Fibo

Since late August 2017 the GBP/JPY pair entered into bullish channel which development the bears decided put an end. During the first days of February the pair pinned a remarkable high at 156.60, a level that was abounded after the Brexit vote. From then on the bears came into game with overs 1000 pips and led the pair towards the psychological hurdle at 145.00.

As seen on the four hour time frame the price bounced from the above mentioned critical level but found resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest February to March downward slope at 147.70. On the same chart the 20-day SMA is slowly turning  its direction towards north. RSI and stochastic are located slightly above their mid-lines and are also heading north.

Resuming the uptrend seems to be elusive now as bulls should work hard first to get closer to the 38.2% Fibo where around the pair spent some time for consolidation. Although the indicators on the four hour time frame are hinting bullish outlook this will be short lived. The BoJ’s rate decision on Thursday will support the Japanese Yen’s strength while the Sterling remains weak and this combination will define the further development of the pair.

USD/JPY Lower

USD/JPY tumbled to fresh six month low, down for the day with 0.85 % and current market price 107.65.

Overnight the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index figures for January were released from Japan, which met the markets expectations, but failed to influence price movement. The following speech of Governor Kuroda started to boost the Japanese Yen on the back up of reduced demand of greenback. Kuroda confirmed that BOJ will maintain QE until inflation reaches 2.0% although the central banks lately act opposite on his works. What comes more interesting is that the PM Abe didn’t clarify if the Governor will keep his post.

Technically the short term outlook for the pair remains bearish.On the four hour time frame the price is developing well below its bearish moving averages. RSI and stochastic are located within extreme oversold territories and both are keeping strong downward slopes.

The USD/JPY conquered the support level at 107.70 and now the pair is poised to extend its decline towards immediate support, provided by last Spetember’s low at 107.31. If bears succeed to breach this level, then doors are opened for testing 106.80.

USD/JPY Close to critical support after dovish BoJ

The Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting held earlier today delivered relatively dovish massage, as central bankers left unchanged the interest rates and its QQE purchase. Following the speech of Governor Kuroda the USD/JPY spiked the 111.00 level but found resistance at 111.20. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its bearish SMAs, while RSI and stochastic turned sharply to south and are showing strong bearish momentum. The pair failed to hold gains are is close to the key support at 110.50. The only interesting about this pair today will be whether will test the next support level at 110.19 (the 4-month low marked last week). 

 

USD/JPY Lower

The new trading week started with renewed weakness for the US dollar, despite the surging US Treasury bond yields and the optimism surrounding the expected tax reform bill.
Among this environment the USD/JPY pair is trading lower, having retreated from the early Asian session highs around 112.80 and the price is now hovering around 112.50.
According to the four hour time frame, the short term outlook remains neutral to bearish. The pair found resistance at the 112.80 price area, which is also last Thursday’s high, which makes this level great challenge for the bulls. Currently the price is stuck between its 100-day and 200-day SMAs with first one providing support at 112.40. RSI is around its mid-line but has lost directional strength, while stochastic has turned sharply to south.
The week ahead is offering US macro data and Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision that will bring fresh directional impetus.

USD/JPY Slightly up on dovish BOJ

BOJ’s monetary policy decision today is not the event that was expected to be for markets. The central bank left the rate at -0.1% t and kept on hold the yield target at around zero percent, although  the GDP forecasts have been revised higher, but the inflation forecast have been revised lower. Overall, no surprise.
Following BOJ, the USD/JPY pair is seen uplifted and started to recover from the daily low at 112.95. As the time of writing the pair is up with 0.24% and the current market price is 113.46.
From technical point of view, the short term outlook is neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing above the bullish 100-day and 200-day SMAs,while the 20-day SMA is staying flat around 113.65. RSI and stochastic had retreated from their extreme oversold areas and are displaying strong bullish momentum.
A break above 113.80 would challenge bulls to march higher towards 114.45 (last week’s high). On the other hand, immediate support at the 100-day SMA  around 112.95, where the daily low was marked. Next one is seen at 112.50.            

USD/JPY Retreats after having marked fresh 2-week high

Central Banks' decisions from past days boosted USD/JPY and today the pair marked fresh new two weeks high at 111.40. Fed announced that will lift up the interest rate with another 0.25 and BoJ hinted about a chance in the future to retrieve easing and holding the monetary policy steady.

However, the optimistic mood didn’t last long and ahead of Wall Street opening the pair dropped to currently trade at 110.74. It seems that bulls couldn’t conquer the critical resistance at 111.50, where now is located the 200-day SMA. 

The four-hour time frame is showing bullish 20-day SMA while the 100-day SMA is staying flat at 110.45 and is acting as a dynamic support. 

RSI and stochastic had retreated from the extreme overbought territory. Both are yet well above their mid-lines but has started to turn to south. 

As the pair broke the support at 110.90, doors are now opened for testing the next one at 110.56 (the intraday low).

USD/JPY Back Below 118 Mark

Japanese yen slightly dropped on Tuesday after the Bank of Japan as expected kept the negative interest rate level of 0.1%. Supported by a rise in the US interest rates earlier and keeping this in Japan, the USD/JPY pair continued to move upwards. 

In early Asian session the pair hit a daily high at 118.23, but closed the session at 117.85. Looking at the daily chart it is seen that the pair is consolidating and the the strong bullish momentum is loosing strength, but is still holding above the key level at 100. 

Today the pair failed to stay above the 118 mark and dropped to 117 area. An intraday low was pinned at 117.05 and the current market price is 117.36.

Still the long-term outlook remains bullish. 

Support is seen at 117.00 and 116.52. Resistance is located at 118.00 and 118.64.

USD/JPY: Bulls Aiming 111.00 Level

USD/JPY posted strong growth on Monday with daily gains of + 1.44%. The pair broke the important area at 107.50/107.80 and marked fresh high at 108.52.  

The Yen was influenced by the positive GDP data and Kuroda’s speech, who pointed that the inflation will rise slowly and monetary policy will not change until inflation reaches the target of 2%. Meanwhile Fed’s rate hike in December is also relevant to the pair with expectations have risen sharply after Trump’s win. 

Technically speaking, bulls are now fuelled to continue slowly upwards and test the next key resistance level at 111.00/111.60. RSI and Stochastic are placed now at overbought territory with the pair breaking the 200-day moving average, which is pointing that correction is not excluded. 

USD/JPY turned to shade of pale

Bulls gave all the power they had and almost gave themselves one more chance. The last week  USD/JPY pushed above the important resistance level at 104.31. However, this upward movement was accompanied by bearish divergence, shown by MACD, which hinted of bulls weakness.

The fundamentals now support the appreciation of the US dollar, which would mirror the increase in this currency pair. The difference in the Fed’s BoJ’s monetary policy will continue to influence the dynamics in the pair. The Bank of Japan decided to keep its economic policy unchanged, but the yen react to the news significantly. 

Currently the USD/JPY pair fell to lower levels and pined intraday low at 103.787. As seen on the chart some further slides are very possible. 

RSI is located in the oversold area, currently around 24%. Momentum is also situated at the oversold territory and both indicators are displaying bearish slopes. 

Support is placed now at 103.50 and lower at 103.10. Resistance is seen at 104.20 and 104.62.

USD/JPY plummeted right after FBI reopenes Clinton’s mail case

Few hours before the end of the week markets tumbled. Only 10 days left to US elections and FBI reopened Clinton’s mail case. The news flashed into the market space and immediately affected the main currencies.

Since the beginning of October USD/JPY was moving higher and reached a 3 week high at 105.52. Last two days the pair is seen in consolidation phase around 105.00 level.

After the FBI story was posted, the pair plummeted and fell from 105.35 to 104.45 for just several minutes. Meanwhile the main indices at Wall Street and the equities also were significantly down. 

This story rocked the market mood, but 10 days is a lot of time. Outside the elections, next week promises to be interesting. High volatility is expected on Wednesday, when Fed and BoJ will declare their solutions on monetary policy.

USD/JPY retreated back to 102 handle on BoJ's statement

Earlier this morning BoJ presented the new policy framework and announced that will keep the main interest rate unchanged as well as the ETF purchases amount and the bond-buying program. New measures will be implement to control the yield curve together with QE and reaching the target of 0% in 10 yr bond yield.

Ahead of BoJ’s Kuroda speech USD/JPY slipped below the bullish channel, but after digesting the comment the pair pushed higher again. Looking to the downside, a clear break and daily close below 101.15 could lead the bears to 100.00 - 99.50 area. Immediate resistance is seen at 103.36 and if closing above 103.00 bulls may try to test it. Anyway key resistance level remains near 104.00. Currently the bearish scenario is preferable, but nothing is sure as higher volatility is expected to spur the markets this evening with Fed’s statement. 

GBP/USD slumped to mid point of 1.29 mark

During yesterday’s session GBP/USD pair was quite hesitant but overall still manages to retain the bearish bias. Following the BoJ’s statement this morning the pair slumped to 1.2945, but shortly afterwards retreated to 1.2967. The policy framework presented today by BoJ to keep rates unchanged fueled the US dollar’s strength and pushed the USD index 0.25% higher.

Fist resistance that should be considered is located at 1.3050, above which 1.3100 would be tested. On the downside, a clear break and daily close below 1.2900 might bring the price down to test 1.2790. As long as the pair stays below 1.3500, the bearish scenario is still is pace.

GBP/JPY take offence at BoE's innuendo

Given that the Bank of England unrolled last week authentic set of stimulus, which exceeded even the most courageous expectations, it was not a surprise that this fact brought the GBP/JPY pair down and even below the Brexit low. The sterling weakened considerably and reached daily low at 132.20, but later on spilled slowly back to 133.17.
This week started with a gap above this point and the pair has found a new near term support which turned to be the old resistance.
While considering the sterling as quite bearish at present, we also must keep an eye on Bank of Japan as the expectations for stimulating monetary policy is still on the agenda.
Main resistance now is seen at 134.15 , which is another shift but from prior support to resistance.

USD/JPY in anticipation of FOMC meeting

USD/JPY was quite hesitant yesterday. The pair tried to push lower, formed bottom at 105.62 but closed higher at 106.09. Currently the pair is staying above 106 mark and hit an intraday high at 106.41 earlier today. In the short term bulls may try to conquer 106.70 - 107.00 area. On the downside, key support is located at 106.00 - 105.50 levels.

More clear direction will be set later on today, as the market is anticipating Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Still the expectations are that the monetary policy will not be changed. Tomorrow the Bank of Japan will decide on monetary policy and what measures should be taken against the appreciating yen.

USD/JPY uplifted

Japan's GDP figures were released earlier this morning. During the first quarter GDP registered 0.4% against the forecasted 0.1%. On annual basis the growth is 0.7% compared to expected 0.3%.

Japan runs the risk of slipping into technical recession, which will lead to eased monetary policy. This will be of support to USD/JPY, as will weaken the yen.Now upon these better figures the hopes for BoJ’s further stimulus are fading away. 

On Tuesday session US dollar went up to 109.65, which was its highest level since April 28, supported by the CPI positive mood.

On today’s session the pair rebounded from lows at 108.72 and currently is trading at 109.53. Short term sentiment remains bullish, as next bulls challenge is 109.90.

Aussie weakens

The Australian dollar tumbled today after surprisingly weak inflation numbers, while the US dollar and the yen are in defensive positions in anticipation of the Fed and BoJ meeting. The Australian dollar fell more than 1% in the morning and was trading at 0.7635 after data showed that consumer price index in Australia unexpectedly fell by 0.2% in January to March.

Preliminary estimates were for a rise of 0.3%. This number increased the speculations that RBA will defend its inflation target by cutting interest rates. The Australian dollar rose this month by almost 15% compared to seven year low in January, thanks to a recovery in commodity prices. Growing expectations of a reduction in interest rates, however, may stop the rally.

AUD/USD is trading sharply lower, currently at 0.7592, as ahead of the publication of the inflation figures the pair plunged with 1.65% to 0.7619.

Meanwhile AUD/JPY dropped below 85 mark, dragging down the aussie with 1.6%. 

Asian markets posted mixed trading

Ahead of notable decisions that are expect to be taken by Bank of Japan (BoJ), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) the Federal Reserve (Fed), market participants are playing cautiously today. Lunacy started to conquer first Asian markets with pushing Japan equities lower but Chinese higher in the early trade on Tuesday.

The Chinese Shanghai Composite index increased with 0.64% to 2 965.40 points, and Hong Kong’s  Hang Seng climbed with 0.48%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped with 0.49% to 17,353 points, and South Korean’s Kospi closed 0.25% up to 2 019.63 points.

The Australian benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.30% to 5 220.64 points.

Energy companies in the region traded mixed. Australian Santos reported a decline of 3.68%, while Japan's Inpex and Japan Petroleum recorded decreases of respectively 1.5% and 1.05%. Australia's Woodside Petroleum shares rose 1.44%, while China's Sinopec marked an increase of 1.46%.

The main exporting companies in Japan enrolled mostly downs. Shares of Toyota fell 0.72%, Nissan and Honda are down with respectively 0.99% and 0.69%. Sony reported an increase of 0.51% and Mitsubishi Motors wiped nearly 10% of the share prices.

Australian iron ore miners finished with declines after the steel-making component sloped to $66 per tonne. Fortescue Metals dipped with 6.25% and heavyweights BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto fell respectively with 3.06% and 2.95%.