GBP/USD Consolidating ahead of BoE’s decision

The GBP/USD pair bounced modestly from the multi-month lows at 1.3480 but yet bulls are not strong enough to reverse the trend despite the US dollar lost ground after Trump's decision to withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal. Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains neutral to bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its 100-day and 200-day SMAs, although is trying to break above the 20-day SMA, which is also bearish. RSI escaped from the oversold area but yet remains below its mid-line. Stochastic is giving initial sighs for U-turn and currently is located at 40. The limited upward potential can not offer much, so the GBP/USD pair is more likely to remain in consolidation phase within tight range between 1.3480 and 1.3600 until BOE's decision on Thursday. 

GBP/USD On a new channel to the upside

GBP/USD broke key levels and is nearing 1.4000 hurdle as the US dollar started to slide after the US inflation figures and the following political jitters on the replacement of the Secretary of State.

Thereupon and the lack of macro events in UK for tomorrow is uplifting the Cable to its highest level in over two weeks. The UK bulls were seen flirting with the 1.40 level but obviously are a little bit hesitant as currently the pair is trading at 1.3967.

Technically speaking the short term outlook remains bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing within an ascendant channel, having stalled close to the upside of it. Also the pair succeeded to cross to above its moving averages, which are looking for direction. RSI and stochastic are located within strong overbought areas but both are strating to lose strength. 

Given all above the Cable is likely to push above 1.4000 and just technically this point converges with the upper side of the channel.

GBP/USD is gaining momentum

GBP/USD is moving steeply upwards and today marked fresh new high, that has not been seen since June 2016 and even reached the Brexit referendum levels. However the pair retreated from the 1.3822 to currently trade at 1.3795. 

Technically speaking the short term outlook for GBP/USD remains neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing well above its moving averages, all keeping bullish slopes. RSI is located within extreme overbought territory, but has eased around 82 level. The Momentum retreated modestly from its north areas, but when the pair is challenged to test again the daily high, a correction is out of the question at this stage. 

First resistance is provided by 1.3835 (February 2016 low) and in case bulls conquer it, doors are opened for testing the psychological 1.4000 handle.

GBP/USD found support at 23.6% Fibo

The GBP/USD pair retreated from the three and a half month high at 1.3612, but found support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest November to January bullish run and currently is trading at 1.3525. Although the pair bounced form the daily low at 1.3491, remains down with 0.53% for the day. 

On the four hour time frame the price has crossed to below its 20-day SMA, which slowed down its bullish momentum, while the 100-day SMA is staying flat and is providing strong support at 1.34 handle. RSI is located around its mid-line and has started to lose directional strength. Stochastic and momentum and showing strong bearish slopes, but still hold above their mid-lines, which means that the buyers are not indicating interest.  

Nevertheless to switch into bullish mode again, the pair should first return to the daily high and then to conquer next resistance level at 1.3655. 

GBP/USD Limited upward potential

The UK November CPI release today showed best figures the last five years, having 3.1% increase on yearly basis and the inflation exceed the expectations of 0.2% and is p with 0.3%. Following the news the GBP/USD dropped to two weeks low at 1.3310, but the weakened greenback supported the bounce to the daily high at 1.3380. At this point the pair found strong resistance provided by the 50% Fibonacci retracement of latest bullish upleg. As seen on the four hour time frame the price retreated from this level and currently is hovering around 1.3320. On the same chart the 20-day SMA is displaying bearish slope above the price movement, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs had eased their bullish stance. Stochastic has recovered from its extreme negative territory and started to turn north, but yet remains below 20. RSI is around 30 and has lost directional strength.

Stronger impetus the pair will get on Thursday when BoE will announce its monetary policy decision. Until then GBP/USD will remain range bounded. 

He Who Marches Out Of Step Hears Another Drum

„He Who Marches Out Of Step Hears Another Drum”. I found my favourite quote from „One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest” so appropriate to Pound’s behaviour today. The Brexit bill was finally negotiated between EU and UK and the 60 bn euro financial settlement will be accomplished before the deadline on December 4th.

Despite the pullback during the early NY session to 1.3220, the GBP/USD pair is currently trading at 1.3374. On the four hour time frame the price is located above its bullish moving averages. RSI and stochastic had turned sharply bounced from their oversold readings and are showing strong bullish momentum. The rally might extend in case of disappointing US data tomorrow and next bulls target is seen at 1.3420. 

EUR/GBP In bearish consolidation

Since the beginning of the week, the EUR/GBP is seen in tight trading, having the Brexit concerns on one side and on the other side the Catalunia’s independence drama. Technically, the pair conquered the resistance at 0.8900 (former support) and broke out of the bullish channel, that has formed from late September. On the four hour time frame the price is trying to cross to above its bullish 20-day SMA. Stochastic is showing strong bullish momentum and is located very close to its extreme overbought territory, while RSI is at around 60, but has lost directional strength. The pair is currently consolidating lower, but the short term outlook still favors to the upside.

GBP/USD BoE boosted the Pound

It’s been a quite volatile day in the markets, with the Pound occupying the centre of the stage on the back of a hawkish BoE’s policy statement. GBP/USD marked highest level since September 2016, rising up to 1.3404, with over pips from its daily low with the release outcome. It’s interesting that the greenback failed to rally, as it was expected,  despite the good news from the US as CPI is up with 0.4% month-over-month, which lifted the year-over-year rate to 1.9%.

Technically speaking the short-term trend remains bullish. On the four-hour time frame the price accelerated through its bullish 20-day SMA, which is advancing above its current level and is gaining upward strength. Indicators are located within extreme overbought territory with RSI loosing directional strength and stochastic keeping strong bullish momentum. 

Bulls are now eyeing 1.3410 with stronger challenge ta 1.3445. The downside is limited by 1.3325/30 level, a resistance turned into support. 

GBP/USD Retreated from a month high

Since yesterday the GBP/USD pair keep advancing and today nailed fresh one-month high at 1.3081, a level that has not been visited since August 4th. After retreating later to lower level with current market price 1.3043, the pair succeded to hold gains at the end of the session amid the lack of macro news from UK.  

On the four-hour time frame the pair is advancing beyond its bullish 20-day SMA, which has crossed to above the 200-day EMA. Stochastic has retreated from the overbought territory, but yet maintains extreme values, while RSI is hovering around 70 and has lost directional strength. 

To confirm certain return of the bulls, the pair must fight the key resistance located at 1.3080 with scope to test next 1.3150.

GBP/USD Remains under pressure

Last days the GBP/USD pair is bounded within tight range is currently is settled at 1.2876. The better than expected numbers on UK retail sales released this morning pushed the pair higher, but bulls couldn’t fight the psychological level at 1.2900. However the downward slope is still limited by the greenback’s weakness amid the political jitters in the United States. 

Technically speaking the pair remains under pressure. On the four-hour time frame the price developing below its bearish 20-day SMA. Stochastic has left its oversold area but yet is far below its mid-line and seems to be searching for clear direction. RSI is at around 36 and has lost directional strength. 

The short term outlook remains in favour of the bears with first target at 1.2840 and next at 1.2800. Looking to the upside first resistance is seen at 1.2895 and higher at 1.2930.

GBP/USD At 38.2% Fibo

The macro data released today in UK failed to set clear direction for GBP/USD and the pair is seen in consolidation mode around 1.3000 handle. 

UK's Industrial Production rose above the expected 0.5% inter-month during June and 0.3% on an annualised basis, but manufacturing came in flat on a monthly basis, advancing  by 0.6% over the last 12 months, which met the market's expectations. 

Additionally the UK’s trade balance figures showed that the trade deficit widened by £2.0 billion to £4.6 billion in June. 

Ahead of the release of the NSIER GDP estimate, the cable marked intraday high at 1.3014 and respectively low at 1.2951. The current market price is 1.30, exactly at 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest June to August bullish run. 

On the four-hour time frame the price is moving below its bearish 20-day SMA, while the 200-day SMA has crossed it to above. Indicators are slightly below there mid-lines with stochastic  heading north and RSI with lack of directional strength. 

The pair is facing first resistance at 1.3010 and eventual break will open doors for testing 1.3050. Looking to downside, critical level is the daily low at 1.2951. 

GBP/USD Facing downside risk on corrective pullbacks

The GBP/USD pair continues to keep its downside pressure, regardless of the greenback’s faintness and the less attractive Pound. The macroeconomic agenda has nothing to offer until Thursday  and the more important event will be next Friday, when the US inflation numbers will be released. So no dramatic movements are expected and the pair will keep its sideways course.
On the four-hour time frame the price continues to develop below its bearish 20-day SMA. RSI and stochastic are located within oversold territory but both had lost directional strength.
The intraday support is located around the level of the 200-day SMA – 1.3000 and in case of breaking it to below, next bears’ target will be 1.2950. Looking to the upside, first resistance is seen at 1.3100 with a advance beyond here additional gains up to 1.1330 – 1.1350 are expected.  
Generally in the short term the cable will keep facing downside risk on corrective pullbacks.

GBP/USD Extended the rally to fresh yearly high

GBP/USD is still moving higher and is marking a fresh new yearly high. Today the pair is developing above 1.32 handle and had posted daily high at 1.3239. The Pound is supported by the good numbers of July’s  Markit manufacturing PMI that showed excellent export performance. 

Technically speaking, the pair is showing  strong bullish momentum on the four-hour time frame.  The price is well above its bullish moving averages. RSI and stochastic are located within extreme overbought territory but both are losing directional stregth. As currently the US dollar is very weak and is not interesting for the market players, these overbought conditions might be neglected in the short term.
Above the daily high, bulls are challenged by 1.3280 and higher by 1.33 area. Looking to downside first support is seen at 1.3190 and in case of breaking it, a corrective move might be expected around 1.3145. 

GBP/USD Found support at 23.6% Fibo

The GBP/USD pair had corrected from the extreme overbought conditions from last Friday and today is seen gravitating around 1.30 area.

On the four-hour time frame the price keeps advancing above the uptrending 20-day SMA, while RSI and stochastic retreated from the their extreme values. Both indicators developed bearish slopes, but yet have not enough directional strength to confirm bears’ return.

As clearly seen on the chart the correction has stopped at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest up leg – July 12th to July 14th, which is also acting as strong support level at 1.3040. In case of breaking this level, the pair will be poised to extend its decline towards 1.30 mark. 

Looking to the upside first resistance is seen at 1.3115 (Friday’s top) and next at 1.3160 9 (September 2016’s high).

GBP/USD At 23.6% Fibo

From the beginning of the week the GBP/USD pair keeps advancing and and in the early session today reached 1.2985. The pair couldn’t hold on this level and retreated to currently trade at 1.2930.
The demand for the greenback faded away mostly due to the absence of any hawkish surprise, shown by FOMC minutes. On the other hand, there no macro releases in UK today and most important that would stir the market remains the anticipation of NFP on Friday.
On the four-hour time frame the price has crossed to above the bearish 20-day SMA and is located very close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest rally. RSI has retreated from the overbought area and is showing strong bearish momentum, but yet is holding around it mid-lines. Stochastic is moving to the opposite and is heading north although has lost directional strength.  
To confirm the bullish trend, bulls must conquer first 1.2960 mark and next 1.2985 (today’s high). Until then the outlook remains neutral to bullish.

GBP/USD turned to downside

Last week the GBP/USD was seen uptrending and marked a monthly high at 1.3030. But start of the new week shifted the mood and the pair dropped to 1.2930. The Pound is hardly influenced by the bad macro figures as the Markit manufacturing PMI for June showed less than expected data. Beside this the expectations for BOE’s upcoming rate hike are decreasing, but it will become more clear this Tuesday when inflation report is due along with the construction PMI for June.

Technically speaking the four-hour time frame is showing some bearishness. The price has crossed to below the 20-day SMA, while the 200-day SMA is staying flat and is acting as dynamic support.RSI has sharply turned to south and stochastic is located within extreme oversold territory and is displaying strong bearish momentum.

Having in mind that last week the bulls coundn’t again conquer the psychological 1.30 mark, the short-term the sentiment remains bearish.

Cable slumped due to political turmoils

Cable is trading today at lowest levels, even lower since the snap election notice from 18th if April. Ahead of Wall Street opening the GBP/USD recovered some of the losses and is currently trading at 1.2621. 

BOE's Governor Mark Carney speech set under huge selling pressure the Pound, keeping dovish mood on interest rate amid the Brexit drama. 

Meanwhile the negotiations between the Northern Irish DUP  and Prime Minister May's Conservatives are not developing in an the expected way.  

On the other hand, the US dollar is seen stronger having DXY up 0.29% today, which additionally makes the Pound suffer.

Technically speaking, the four-four time frame is showing strong bearish signs. The price has crossed to below the 20-day SMA, which has turned to bearish side. RSI has retreated from its mid-line and has declined to negative territory. Stochastic is located within extreme oversold area and is displaying lack of momentum. 

It seems that the Cable is gathering bearish momentum before starting correction.