USD/CAD Gaining positive traction

USD/CAD pushed below key 1.30 psychological mark yesterday after the upbeat Canadian economic data, especially the better than expected monthly GDP growth numbers. The pair managed to find some support at 1.1280 and today is trading higher with current market price 1.3018.
Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its moving averages. RSI is showing slow bullish momentum and is close to its mid-line. Stochastic is displaying strong upward movement above its mid-line.
The pair will meet first resistance at 1.3040, which if broken, the upward recovery could be extended towards 1.3095-1.3100 area. The downside remains supported by the 1.30 handle and lower at 1.2985.
While the Loonie is influenced by the weaker oil prices , the US dollar is gaining positive traction and  is getting more attractive ahead of today’s FOMC monetary policy decision and a good set of US economic releases - ADP report on private sector employment, ISM manufacturing PMI and the official EIA crude oil inventories report, which will bring fresh impetus. 

Loonie broke 1.3100 on BoC’s rate hike

Bank of Canada raised the key rate by 25 bps to 1.50%, as it was largely anticipated. The Bank keeps its projection for close to 2% GDP growth over 2018-2020 and sees unprtentious effects of tariffs on economic growth and prices. As the time of writing the USD/CAD pair is trading at 1.3117, correcting from the 3-week low at 1.3065 on the rate hike announcement from BoC. Technically apeaking the short term outlook remains neutral to bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below the flat 50-day and 100-day SMAs and also the flat 20-day SMA is marching with the current price.RSI and stochastic are showing bearish momentum but yet remain above their mid-lines. 

Stong support is provided by the 1.3100 level which was for shortly broken today. The pair vulnerable around this area so I expect another test and in case of success bears will try next one at 1.3064. Looking to the upside first resistance is seen at 1.3174 and second at 1.3193.

USD/CAD Spiked higher above 1.30

The USD/CAD pair surged through the psychological 1.3000 handle today and the rally surpassed the late March high at 1.3046. The bulls reached daily high at 1.3066 but retreated to currently trade at 1.3010 however adding 100 around pips for the day.
The strong bullish mode came after the gloomy Canada’s Q1 labor productivity data weakening the Canadian dollar while better than expected figures on US ISM's non-manufacturing PMI data fuelled the greenback.

Technically speaking the short term outlook remains neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing well above its moving averages with all of them aiming north. RSI and stochastic are showing strong bullish momentum although both are located slightly above their mid-lines.

A daily close above the late March’s high at 1.3046 will bring additional strength for bulls to test the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017 bearish run at 1.3127. On the other hand the profit-taking provoked by the latest rally might lead USD/CAD lower. In case of closing below 1.3000 barrier, which is providing first support now, deeper decline is expected towards 1.2910 – the 50% of above mentioned Fibo.

USD/CAD Bulls are eyeing 1.2800

USD/CAD bounced from the daily lows around 1.2750 and is advancing towards 1.2800. The US bulls resumed their march to the upside, supported by the rising US yields, while the Canadian dollar  gave away gains after the backing of WTI latest highs.
Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing between its flat SMAs. Stochastic is recovering from extreme oversold area and has turned to north although is yet below 20. RSI is showing good upward momentum and is nearing its mid-line.
However to resume the bullish trend the pair will need to retake the resistance provided by the 100-day SMA at 1.2840 and then to fight the 50% Fibonacci retracement of 2017 bearish run at 1.2930. Further on doors are opened for testing the May’s high at 1.2996. Looking to the downside first support is offered by the 61.8% Fibo of same retracement at  1.2730 and next one is seen at 1.2650.

USD/CAD Retreated from 1.2620

The USD/CAD pair started the new week trading around last sessions highs, but found resistance at 1.2620 before turning to the downside. The current market price is 1.2569 and it seems that bears are likely to test 1.2540 area (last weeks lows).

Technically speaking the short term outlook remains neutral to bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its moving averages. The 20-day SMA has turned flat while the 100-day and 200-day SMA are keeping downward slopes. Stochastic is showing strong bearish momentum and is nearing oversold area. RSI has lost directional strength and currently is located at 36.

First support is seen at 1.2540 and second at 1.2520, which is broken to below doors are opened for testing 1.2500. To the flip side first resistance is provided by 1.2620 and next at 1.2675.

A key event for the week is the Bank of Canada’s meeting on Wednesday, which is expected to keep the policy rate on hold at 1.25%. The greenback is unstable and weak due to the political woes and with the supportive oil USD/CAD seems to favor the downside.  

USD/CAD Rebounded from the post-FOMC lows

USD/CAD suffered huge drop yesterday because of the main markets’driver - the Fed's rate hike. The pair extended its downward slope to mark an intraday low at 1.2825 but it seems that markets already digested the news and the US dollar started to recover. And this combined with weaker oil prices that weigh on the Canadian dollar pushed the pair back above 1.2900.
On the four hour time frame the price has is developing below the bearish 20-day SMA and slow bearish 200-day SMA. RSI and stochastic have retreated from their extreme oversold readings and both are showing strong upward momentum.
Currently the pair is trading at 1.2905 but according to indicators has potential to move higher. First target comes at 1.2925 – 1.2935 – 50% Fibonacci retracement of latest 2017 bearish run and also flat 100-SMA. Further on bulls should aim 1.2950 – 1.2960 are and with a break to the upside doors are opened for testing the psychological 1.3000 hurdle.
The downside is supported by 1.2825 (the daily low) and lower at 1.2800 (last week’s bottom).

USD/CAD Above 1.2800

Since the beginning of the week the  US bulls demonstrate self-confidence and strength, which finally led the USD/CAD pair to new fresh two-month top at 1.2867. Meanwhile WTI marked two week low and this this slump has affected the Canadian dollar.
On the four hour time frame the price is developing well above its bullish moving averages with current market price 1.2850. RSI and stochstic are located within extreme overbought territories and both has lost directional strength.
The bulls might need to take some fresh breath before next upleg and according to indicators on the same chart USD/CAD is entering in consolidation phase.
An increased byuing interest could lead the pair towards the key resistance at 1.2900, which is broken might open doors for testing the 1.2920 (50% Fibo of 2017 decline) area where the pair failed to conquer several time during last three months in 2017.
The downside is supported by 1.2800 and lower at 1.2730 (38.2% of same Fibo).
The macro agenda for the day offers very supportive data for the greenback, so I expect bullish continuation after short consolidation around 1.2850.

USD/CAD Breaks above 1.27

Since the beginning of the week USD/CAD is gaining upside strength and today the pair advanced much farther to mark new fresh 2018 high at 1.2757. The hawking FOMC minutes yesterday boosted the greenback while the Canadian neighbour suffered from worst than expected retails sales figures.

On the four hour time frame the price is developing well above its bullish 20-day and 100-day SMAs and currently is trading at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of  the 2017 bearish run.
RSI is consolidating around its 70, while stochastic warns us to be cautious because has retreated from its extreme overbought readings and and is showing strong bearish momentum although is located around its 80.
To resume the uptrend for a longer term bulls should make a decisive break through the 50% of same Fibo at 1.2930. Until then the downside will be protected initially by the 23.6% Fibo at 1.2470 followed by the yearly low at 1.2240.

USD/CAD Looking for direction ahead of BoC

USD/CAD pair has lost directional strength and is seen in narrow trading range today slighty above the 1.24 mark. It seems that market participants are not likely to take part ahead of Wednesday's BoC monetary policy decision. The 85% probability per Bloomberg for rates hike will boost the CAD’s strength but in case BoC postpone hikes for the next meeting the USD/CAD would be poised to test the resistance provided by the 38.2% Fibo retracement of latest bullish run at 1.2585. Lookind to the downside first support is seen at the psychological barrier at  1.24, below which the pair might extend its downward slope towards the 61.8% Fibo of same retracement at 1.2385.