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The Glowing Dawn Went Down

In the middle of April Gold run above the $1295 level due to the fact that the post-March rate hike rally extended further. But since then the price started to move to downwards along with the upcoming FOMC rate decision on Wednesday. The relevance of Fed’s rate hike is quite meaningful, considering that during the the past six months we witnessed the two rate hikes which fuelled markets and set the bullish tone in the wake of the policy’s tightening.

Today XAU/USD came under huge selling pressure and fell to lowest level since mid-April at $1254 and the current market price is $1255. 

The four-hour time frame is showing that price has moved below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest March to April upleg at $1257, which was acting as a strong support line. Technical indicators are located within extreme overbought territory. RSI has lost directional strength, while stochastic is displaying strong bearish momentum. 

Major resistance is seen at $1271 (23.6% of above mentioned Fibonacci retracement), which is a very important level to consider, as being former support and April 26th’s  high. A decisive break below $1249 would drag Gold price towards  $1239 (March 5th’s low).  

XAG/USD Confluence of July's trend line and June's support

Since the beginning of February Silver prices are sharply sloping to downwards. Today the price surpassed the important support level at $17.00 and currently is trading at $16.95.

On the daily chart is clearly seen the confluence of the downward trend staring from July 2016 and the support line at June’s 2016 lows. Could this be read as a turning point or a minor stop before continuation of the short term trend?

The same chart is also showing very bearish readings. Both RSI and stochastic are placed well below their mid-lines and are displaying strong bearish momentum.

Given the fact that the US Dollar is relatively strong now, there is reasonable opportunity Silver to continue losses even below December’s 2016 trend line. 

Gold finds support at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement

The US dollar is seen generally stronger amid the rising expectations for the upcoming rates hike and the bulls are retreating from the buck-denominated precious metals. Today Gold prices marked a fresh new low at $1215 and bullishness is fading away in the short term.

Currently Gold is finding support at $1214 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest November to February up leg). The four-hour time frame is showing bearish 20-day SMA, while the 100-day SMA has lost direction and is acting as a resistance at $1238. RSI and stochastic are heading south and are displaying extreme oversold conditions. Thus situated according to the technical readings, it appears likely that the precious metal is poised to extend the downward slope towards $1210 level and even may drop to test the key support at $1200. 

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Gold At Six Week High

Following the US President elect press conference the gold prices are showing further up-move and crossed the psychological handle at $1200. Gold is currently trading at $1205, the highest level since November 23rd and a six week high. 

Donald Trump didn’t offer much on his speech and more important is that he didn’t share any details on his on-coming economic plans to increase growth. Amid the planted disappointment among the markets, the US dollar suffered and was exposed to broad sell-off. The weakened US dollar boosted the interest for the gold investments.

If closing above $1193 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest 1304-1122 decline), gold prices are poised to extend the upward march towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $1215. On the downside weakness is seen around the support line at $1165 (23.6% of same Fibonacci retracement) and a daily close below it, bears will target $1150 area.

Dawn Light Shines Bright

The Trump factor mirrored in Gold weakness and during the last six weeks we witnessed strong bearishness. Prices were driven lower with around $200. Market conditions were within extreme oversold area.

Now the setup has changed into bullish mode in the short-term. Since late December 2016 Gold is moving up and formed bullish channel as shown on the hourly chart and prices are seen higher with around $50. Today a fresh new daily high was marked at $1185. Well, the surge of the price is due to the continuation of the of the latest bullish trend, but is also supported by the US dollar’s current weakness. And this is an important point that should be considered. The greenback is now exposed to large sell-off and Gold is not moving up without motivation.

Technical indicators are recovering from overbought territory, but still are located at north area. Both RSI and Stochastic are slightly turning to south on the hourly chart, but if we look at the H4 they are still confirming the bullish trend.

Support now is seen at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $1173 (latest decline from Presidential elections high at $1336 to December 15th low at $1122). Strong resistance is located at $1188 (December 2nd high). Should the price cross to above this level, then bullishness in longer term could be possible.

Gold Might Bounce Upon FOMC Meeting

US presidential election has been crucial for Gold, but a month later markets digested the event and now the focus is set on FOMC meeting next week. The rising expectations for rates hike might support the golden resilience and elevate prices as most traders will prefer profit-taking.

Gold prices so far remain weak and stuck within a narrow range. But technical indicators suggest upcoming bounce. RSI is around mid-line but showing positive divergence. Stochastic is showing overbought market but still is displaying strong bullish momentum. 

Short-term resistance is located at 1180 (50-day EMA) and higher at 1199 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement). Looking to the downside nearest support is seen at 1160 and 1134.

In the near-term Gold remains weak, but in the long-term technicals confirm rising upside momentum.

 

Golden Bulls Yet Among The Market

The US dollar’s strengthening, the expected interest rates hike and the lower risk and volatility in stock markets are most important factors that are driving gold prices down. The exposed Trump’s program for boosting the GDP definitely will lead to rising interest rates and stronger US dollar, which is attracting for investors. Hence this is bullish for the dollar, gold is going to suffer. 

But in case we are having long term interest rates increase, this does not always mean that we will have falling prices in gold. According to the World Gold Council the average gold returns were positive as long as interest rates increased gradually and didn’t reach extremely high levels - over 4%. Some economists have shared the opinion that during Trump’s presidency a recession will be a fact, because the current expansion on stock markets is taking too long time. In this common, the investors in gold mining companies should consider this and take steps for profit taking, but instead of this the observation is that they keep their investments for a longer term. 

And while we are witnessing the brutal post election sell-off, shall we abandon all things gold?

In fact the post elections fever dumped the gold hedges  and the gold suffered huge drop for the last 3 weeks. Obsessed by the fear of the unexpected, traders generated enormous sell offs and couldn’t think deeper over the market situation. If looking inside the gold stocks’ fundamentals there might be found an amazing way to fight the prevailing fear. 

The gold miners just released their third-quarter results, which proved very impressive. I suggest you to look at the below GDX Component Comapnies’ Fundamentals Q3’2016 table.  Lower costs and higher gold prices usually lead to surging operating cash flows and profits and the gold miners’ fundamentals are stronger now. So golden bulls are still among the market.

Shining Dawn Tumbles Down

While markets are relatively calm now as Trump’s victory seems to be digested, Gold is extending sell-offs and slided downwards to pin lowest level, not seen since May 2016. Furthermore we have two key factors, that have influenced negatively to the precious metal – the sell-off in treasuries and the rising expectations of the forthcoming Fed rate-hike action.

Technical indicators are showing oversold conditions. RSI is sliding around 30% and stochastic is placed within extreme low values and is displaying weak bearish momentum. 

At the time of writing XAU/USD is trading at $1207 and has crossed the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $1210, acting as a strong support. Meanwhile the 50-day moving average crossed with the 200-day moving average and has passed below it. This could only increase the pressure on Gold as this situation is interpreted differently by traders. 

In the short-term expectations remain bearish with eventual further drop to next support, located at $1172 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level).

Gold: Disturbed By The Sound Of Populism

Running through the memory of 2016 Gold is seen on the street of dreams. Lows, highs, runaways. Brexit case elevated the spirit and affected positively to the forever safe-heaven commodity. But now Trump’s victory set another brick in the wall and Gold parted with the $1300 levels.
During the past week the yellow metal is down with 6%. The initial enthusiasm lifted up the rate, but now it seems that the tale was not right and a dramatic reversal followed.
Current the price is placed at $1226. Applying the retrospective 2016 upside movement, first support is seen at 50% Fibo retracement $1223 and second is lying at May’s $1198. Looking to the upside $1284 is a key level that might relight the bulls power.
Indicators readings are indicating oversold market and showing lack of momentum.  

Gold in oversold area

Since the beginning of October gold broke through 1300 area, but shortly afterwards retreated below the 200-day simple moving average, which is currently located at 1265. As it is clearly seen on the daily chart this line has not been crossed since February. That’s why we should take on consideration the importance of the yearly rally of the yellow metal.  

RSI is showing oversold market and almost is touching the 30 level now. The stochastic is indicating an oversold market as well, but however is displaying lack of momentum.

Support now is located at 1084, 1040 and 1005. Resistance is seen at 1190, 1252 and 1307.

In short, if gold price is not able to push above 1265 (200-day SMA), most likely will follow a test of 1200 area. Before that a consolidation phase is expected, confirmed by the indicators.   

Gold posted new fresh low

While the US dollar is boosted today by stronger economic data along with the rising expectations of Fed’s rate hike, gold prices plummeted and hit a new fresh low.

XAU/USD pair was sliding downwards for sixth consecutive session and pressured mainly by the US dollar strength extended its fall to reach an intraday low at $ 1265. The pair crossed the 100-day moving average as well as the key support level at $ 1300. It is important to mark that gold prices have not visited significant lows since end of May 2016, when tumbled to $ 1198.

As seen on the daily chart, gold has formed five waves descending line and is currently riding the third one at $ 1351. The Stochastic is showing oversold market and RSI neared negative area. Expecting corrective movement towards $1300/1305 area. Resistance is now located at $ 1300 and $ 1318. Support is seen at $ 1268 and $ 1250.

Gold dropped to support zone at $1307

In early August gold was affected by the appreciation of the US dollar. The resistance zone around $1364.30 coincided with the fundamentals and proved necessary pressure on the price. But afterwards followed correction and gold now reached the support zone around $1308.93.

The intraday resistance is now located at $1321.88 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and the major support is seen at $1307.52.

During yesterday’s session gold dropped to $1308.80, but currently is trading around $1314.

Should the price push above the intraday resistance, the commodity might be seen at $1329.52 (200-day moving average and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement). If pushing downwards below the support located at $1309.10, next bears target is $1300-$1295 zone.

Silver bearish in the short-term

On Monday silver tested $19.15 area, but coudn’t hold the line till closing of the session. Today is trading slightly below $19.00 level, marking an intraday high at $19.09 and low at $18.83. 

Currently the key resistance is located at $19.269 and as long as silver is staying below it, the trend is bearish. Key support is seen at $18.674.

RSI is showing oversold market and is confirming the daily bearish trend. 

As seen on the daily chart, 20, 30 and 55 day EMAs are pointing upwards and in the long term perspective we may expect bulls to come back. In the short term bears are indicating only correction movement of the trend.

Gold is slightly down by NFP data, but marking higher lows

Last Friday pushed XAU/USD down with around 1.7%. Of course main reason is the unexpectedly nice US Non-Farm Payroll data, which fueled US dollar’s strenght.

Even so, the news didn’t bring down the yellow metal, as prices are marking higher lows, which should indicate market participants not to sell yet.
Strong resistance is situated around $1,340 area, matching with the 200-day MA.

Currently the main support is located at $1,332 level along with 61.8$ Fibo retracement, drawn form July’s low at $1,310 to August’s high at $1,3670. In the afternoon hours gold bounced off that level to currently trade around $1,335 zone. 

If breaking above $1,346 (38.2% Fibo), next target is seen arounf $1,365 area. 

If XAU/USD is likely to close below $1,331, bears will drag prices to $1,320 area. 

Gold trap in my sight

Gold formed a double-top pattern on the daily chart, touching the $1,367 line and currently is seen around $1,360 area.

Key support remains at $1,340 zone and as long as gold is staying above it bulls will run upstairs.

A possible break below this level could drag XAU/USD to 61.8% Fibo.

Looking upwards pushing above $1,367 could lead gold to highs at $1,380 area. A slight chance for distraction of the current trend might be found only if gold goes below $1,310. 

RSI nears the overbought area, but still showing bulls strength.

Oil's Bohemian Rhapsody

Is this the real oil market life?
Is this just fantasy?
Caught in a landslide
No escape from reality.

Good gains marked on Wednesday
Then steep lows seen on Thursday
Open your eyes
Look up to the skies and see
That the global market remains oversupplied
But crude needs no sympathy
Because it easy comes, easy goes
A little high, little low
Anyway the wind blows
But sometimes a bit matters.

Traders, worries are taking control
Over the global economy slow
Asia, Europe, Brexit uncertainty blow.

The highest OPEC output just killed the mood
Pulled the trigger and now oil cartel limit is dead
The new monthly report will send shivers
With latest output figures
That will be thrown away
after another day.

Do not expect prices to rebound
To some major extent over the next month.

Prices aching all the time
Could be seen in lows at $35
But leave it all behind, as near-term range might be at $45-$50.

Nothing really matters
Anyway the wind blows.

Silver will try just a little for a few dollars more

Bears have occupied today’s trading mood of XAG/USD. In the early trading hours silver broke the resistance at $20.65 and pushed higher to mark intraday high at $20.703. Then direction turned to downside and currently is hovering around $20.40 area.

If closing above $20.65, bulls will try just a little for a few dollars more. Next resistance levels are seen at $20.80 and $21.12.

On the other hand, if closing below $20.35, XAG/USD pair would be dragged to support levels at $20.05, $19.94 and $19.16.

Meanwhile the 20, 30 and 55 day EMAs are streaming upwards noisier to underline the bullish sound. So the current downward blue mood should be considered only as a short-term correction.

XAG/USD struck between spiky lines

XAG/USD was trading today around $19.70 level, marking an intraday high at $19.795 and low at $19.485. The daily chart is showing that silver has found support at $19.20 two times, but the downward trendline, acting as a resistance seized it from advancing further. Meanwhile the 20-day, 30-day and 55-day EMA validate the bullish trend.

It is very possible the current trendline and the support at $19.20 to form a wedge scene. Until XAG/USD is stuck between these interesting lines it’s hard to find to where it will be much trilled. 

Closing above $19.70 will drag silver to test key resistance located at $20.66. One the other hand if closing below the support line, supports at $19.00 - 18.50 area will take place.