GBP/USD Above 1.3200 on upbeat UK PMI data

GBP/USD is trading up with 0.11% at around 1.3208 today after excellent UK PMI numbers. The US  dollar is taking a break to celebrate the Independence Day and thus the Sterling received additional boost.
Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing between its moving averages and currently is stuck between the flat 50-day and 100-day SMA and daily low coincides with the bullish 20-day SMA. RSI is located slightly above its mid-line and is aiming south. Stochastic is seen within extreme oversold area and is also starting to turn bearish.
The 1.3215 – 1.3220 zone now is acting as first resistance and in case if broken next bullish target is seen at the 1.3300 hurdle. On the other hand the today’s up move is not sustainable having the readings on the same chart. Immediate support is provided by the 1.3160 level which is broken, we may expect the downfall to continue towards 1.3100 handle.

The British bears are rolling in the deep

Druging the past two weeks the Cable was developoing above the crytical suppor area at 1.3500 but even the uplifted mood that brought the royal wedding couldn’t keep it over there until today. This mornign the USD/GBP pair plummeted and pinned fresh new 2018 low at 1.3390 as a new episode from the Brexit saga was released. The bearish break was fueled by the that Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon who  pledged to restart a drive for Scottish independence.

As seen on the four hour time frame the price abandoned its latest range and now is developing well below its bearish moving averages. RSI and stochastic are starting to bounce from their lowest levels but yet remian below their mid-line and seems taht are looking for direction.

However the British bears are now ruling the trend. Breaking the key support at 1.3500 is of significant importance as this is a historical level, being attarating the bears since January 2009. So from here we might expect test of 1.3320 area and the creation of new yearly low.

GBP/USD On a rollercoaster

During the last month Cable is swinging back and forth mostly influenced by the greenback’s volatility.  Last week  GBP/USD was seen higher but bulls reacted to the served fundamental with retracement and since then the pair entered into bearish channel, clearly seen on the four hour time frame. During the past hours Sterling gained strength and again was tempted by the psychological  1.40 level following the neutral FOMC minutes that switched off greenback’s strength. On the same chart RSI and stochastic resumed direction towards south are both are close to extreme oversold conditions. The 20-day SMA is showing stong bearish momentum and is developing in parallel with the above mentioned channel. It will be interesting to observe how the pair will react to the vicinity of 1.3880, a support area provided by the downside of the channel. On the other hand tomorrow the UK GBP numbers are due and this could bring back bulls in the game.  

GBP/JPY Within uptrend channel

The broad US Dollar’ weakness has fuelled the Sterling and today continues to move steeply upwards and marks new post Brexit highs. GBP/USD is seen firmly above 1.40 and bulls are preparing to conquer the 1.44 level. Sterling’s strength mirrors the GBP/JPY pair, which is also enjoys uptrend.
Since late August 2017 the GBP/JPY pair has been developing within ascending channel with upper side formed by the highs in late October and early November. As seen on the daily chart the highs seen in late September and early October give some false signs from the uptrend channel viewpoint, but it provides other options for validation up and down to make it appropriate despite them.
Currently the pair is located in the middle of the channel and it seems that feels very comfortable over there and is not planning to abandon it soon. RSI and stochastic remains within positive territory but are staring to lose upward strength and that suggest bulls to pause and take deep breath before next upleg. So the pair might meet support around 153.50 – 153.40. Looking to the upside I expect during next sessions test of 159.90 – Brexit level and upper side of the channel.

 

Cable up ahead of BOE

Having no particular reason today the GBP/USD pair is seen uplifted and leaving the tight range from the past several sessions. One thing is sure, the spirit level is higher ahead of BOE’s rate decision on Thursday, when the first rate hike from a decade is expected. The Central bankers are going to rise the rates by 25 basic points on the back up of resilient post-Brexit UK economy.
The GBP/USD is trading up with 0.29% for the day with current market price 1.3245.
From technical point of view, the short term outlook is neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price has crossed to above the 20-day and 100-day SMA, while the 200-day SMA is staying flat and is acting as a dynamic resistance around 1.33 level. Stochastic is located withing extreme overbought territory, but has lost directional strength. RSI is marking higher highs and lowers lows and is aiming north.
Having in mind above, bulls are well supported, but first will have to conquer the immediate resistance at 1.3275 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of early October bullish run) with next target on the psychological level 1.3300.  

GBP/USD No clrear directional bias

The Sterling is trading slightly changed today against the US dollar following the UK inflation numbers for September, meeting markets expectations. During the early European session the GBP/USD pair marked daily high at 1.3285, but retreated lower to currently trade at 1.3255.

On the four hour time frame the price has crossed to below its 20-day SMA, which turned flat yesterday. Meanwhile the pair now is being stalled at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest October bullish run at 1.3266. Indicators on the same chart are showing mixed signs. RSI is located around its mid-line and has lost directional strength. Stochastic has turned sharply to south and is visiting its extreme oversold territory.

First support is seen around 1.3220 (38.2% of same Fibonacci retracement) and in case of decisive break below it, bears would be likely to test next 1.3120 (the past week’s low). Looking to the upside, immediate resistance is the 1.3310 level and in case of conquering, bulls would try to march higher towards 1.3334, where Friday’s high provides the next resistance.

Next on focus is the BoE’s Governor Carney speech, who will give more clear information on the further interest rates outlook. So let's see how the pair will develop further for the day on the back of the reversed rally ahead of this event.

The "Super Thursday" failed to be super for the Cable

The "Super Thursday" brought fresh new weekly low for the Cable. Following the Bank of England Governor Carney's comments, the GBP/USD pair slipped to 1.2848.

The Central Bank left the rate and the amount of QE unchanged at 0.25% and £435B respectively, as it was expected. But this decision actually affected immediately the price as investors anticipated more hawkish measures after the weak inflation numbers and triggered Sterling’s sell offs. 

Regardless of today’s decline the GBP/USD remains within the well know range from the last two weeks.

Technical indicators on the four-hour time frame are more likely to confirm the short-term bearish trend. The price has crossed to below the 20-day SMA, while RSI and stochastic switched from neutral to negative mode and both are showing extreme oversold conditions. 

The pair could face first support at 1.2830 (last week’s low) and second at 1.2800. Looking to the upside resistance is seen at 1.2965 (28th of April’s  high)  and next one could be seen at 1.2900 (psychological level).

Shakermaker

Easter usually comes to remind us for renewal of life, hope, happiness and unwavering faith. What we felt so bright and joyful during the holidays seems that didn’t brought enough excitement, comparing to the announcement of UK PM Theresa May earlier during the day, calling for a snap election on June 8th. 

A perceived risk of strengthening her position during Brexit negotiations or this decision is a kind of reversal on her previous stance, as she said she'd made it “reluctantly.”

However, today Mrs May turned to be a genuine shakermaker on forex markets, triggering a sharp short-covering rally across GBP crosses, lifting the major to 1.2840.

It was interesting to observe especially the Cable, that has recovered from initial bearish positions and surged through the quite important 200-day SMA for the first time since the historic Brexit vote in June 2016.

As seen on the daily chart, GBP/USD has pushed above the recent downward trendline with technical indicators confirming bullishness. 

To confirm a sure bullish breakout, any pull-back most likely will be limited and currently is going to find some fresh buying interest around 1.2670-75 resistance break, which has now turned to be immediate strong support. Any further slide below this point should now be confined by the very important 200-day SMA at around 1.2630 area. 

Less known fact is that the opening lines of the song „Shakermarker” by Oasis, well known English rock band, were „I’d like to teach the world to sing in perfect harmony”, but exactly this made them sued for unlicensed use of the song, which was written and performed by New Seekers in 1971 and it was made famous in a Coke commercial. It’s strange how nowadays this match to world’s harmony, unfair politics and perfection. „Irony”, was the defence of Noel Gallaagher and after the loosing he joked „Now we all drink Pepsi”. I wonder what drink would prefer Theresa May. Anyway, Sterling sang perfectly today.

      

The uncomfortable Tuesday

The House of Commons gave green light to the UK Prime Minister Theresa May, neglecting the amendments passed by the House of Lords and officially the divorce with the EU got started. 

Yesterday the Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced that next week will apply for permission for conducting second independence referendum.

During Monday’s session the GBP/USD was trading uplifted and marked daily high at 1.2250 after had formed triple bottom. This level is of major importance as represents 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest February down slide and is acting as a resistance. Following the Brexit development today the pair couldn’t hold the line and dropped sharply towards 1.2105 area.

Technical readings on the four-hour time frame are showing bearish signs. The 20-day SMA is staying flat, while RSI and stochastic had turned to oversold area and are indicating very strong downward momentum. A recovery might only be seen only in case the pair fight the intermediate resistance located at 1.2150. Anyway currently GBP/USD is quite vulnerable and the key driver for the future months will be the Brexit development. 

GBP/USD Vulnerable To Decline Lower

Cable is seen sharply lower falling in line with the powerful US bulls. The GBP/USD marked a 3-week low during the European session at 1.2374. 

The pair is highly pressured and has lost ground during the last three sessions. The price has crossed the 50-day moving average to downwards and is moving to deeper lows. Indicators are well placed within negative territory. RSI is line with 30 area. Stochastic is showing extreme oversold conditions and is displaying strong bearish momentum.

Fist support is located at 1.2360 (23th November’s low) and next one is 1.2300 (round number and 18th November’s low). Looking to the upside resistance is seen at 1.2569 (today’s high) and higher at 1.2620 (5th December’s high). The short-term outlook remains bearish. 

GBP/USD uptrending

During yesterday’s session the pound marked modest increase against the US dollar. The session closed just 29 pips higher and pinned an intraday high at 1.2135. Given the fact that yesterday’s performance was corrective recovery, bulls seen back today was expected even slightly pressured.

As it is clearly seen on the H4 chart, the pair is modestly uptrending and pushing above the 20-day simple moving average. The pair is advancing from 1.2200 to 1.2300. RSI is located in the positive area, but although is showing lack of strong upward momentum.

Support is located at 1.2120 and 1.1950. Looking upwards first resistance is lying on 1.2300 and currently is being tested. Next resistance is seen at 1.2460 and 1.2790.

GBP/USD nailed new record low

During the last 12 months the GBP/USD plummeted with 16.20%. In June 2015 the pair fascinated the market participants reaching $1.57 and booked its highest level for this chapter. On Friday the sterling plunged to $1.34 seeing the shocking “leave” vote.
Albeit rather slowly, it was considered that this drift of the circumstances is already digested and new panic attack obsessed the market.
Today GBP/USD for shortly tested the $1.32 level, followed a breakthrough of $1.3226, Friday’s low and a fresh new low since September 1985 was pinned at $1.3119.
Technically speaking, as long as the pair is staying under $1.40, bears are mastering the trend.

    Chart GBP/USD H4