The Crypto Hysteria VS How Comfortable Is To Be Living In A Bubble

Is it comfortable to be living in a bubble? Probably yes, as long as you do not see the trouble.

More than 900 different crypto-currencies and crypto-assets are launching on the market having another pretty much every day.

We might not be able to hear the coins’ sound anymore because anyone with a digital idea may slip a coin and go with it.

The dot-com history is repeating. Right now. 

We are witnessing now a king of crypto hysteria with the boom of the bitcoin, which is quite extraordinary. 

Since the beginning of the year the bitcoin is up with 140% and since July 17th has risen with 30%  and today the price skyrocketed to $2730.

Why the bitcoin is so often connected with a bubble and what has driven up the price? 

Is this a virtual tulip mania, a speculative hysteria or the rising price is the main driver for investing?

Well investors are encouraged by the rising price, no central banker and money printers may influence. The system may arrange you buying of whatever you like - from any junk food to computers. Whatever you like. 

This is a shape of digital gold. It’s meant to be exchanged into real currencies and regulators are considering to take it seriously. Very close example is Japan’s policy, which additionally boosted the price of the bitcoin.

However, I think that latest highs are somehow dizzying  and you should not consider your investments so seriously.

Also  the situation is not so quite dotty. It’s an innovation that might drive rise to more of it. 

But generally innovations are dangerous and the risk remains valid during balloon is inflated.

Currently it’s the paradise city for the scampers. And what of ICOs appear soon? There is no healthy bubble. 

And as Katy Perry sings:

Up there in utopia, where nothing will ever be enough

Happily numb
So comfortable, we're living in a bubble, bubble.

Take off the rose glasses!

USD/JPY The recovery seems quite unlikely

The USD/JPY pair fell today to 111.55,a level that has not been visited since June 27th having on the table the current US dollar's weakness. 

Good macro data came from the United States ahead of Wall Street's

opening, but it seems is was not too good to influence the pair. 

The four-hour time frame is showing strong bearish 20-day SMA and the price is developing below the 200-day SMA, while the 100-day SMA is staying flat around 112.91. 

RSI and stochastic are located withing extreme oversold area but had lost directional strength. 

The short term outlook remains bearish. 

First support is seen at 111.53 (the daily low) and next at 111.60. Looking to the upside, the pair challenged by 112.30 and higher at 112.70.

Aussie in power spirit

The amazing run of the Aussie finally peaked today at 0.7838, slightly above the high marked on April 17th 2016. The pair retreated from the mentioned high and is currently trading at 0.7800.

The excellent Chinese Q2 GDP data, which showed numbers beyond expectations, supported the pair with next on the list RBA, that will release the minutes of its latest meeting along with the upcoming June’s  employment data. 

The AUD/USD pair is keeping its power spirit despite the slight daily decline, having in mind that is still holding around the area of the muti months peak. 

On the four-hour time the price is developing well above its bullish 20-day SMA with the 100-day SMA turning from flat to north. RSI and stochastic had corrected from their extreme overbought conditions but yet remain well above their mid-lines. Both are neither quite bearish, neither pointing out clear direction. 

Overall the positive mood remains despite the daily retracement and bulls are targeting the 0.79 hurdle. 

GBP/USD Found support at 23.6% Fibo

The GBP/USD pair had corrected from the extreme overbought conditions from last Friday and today is seen gravitating around 1.30 area.

On the four-hour time frame the price keeps advancing above the uptrending 20-day SMA, while RSI and stochastic retreated from the their extreme values. Both indicators developed bearish slopes, but yet have not enough directional strength to confirm bears’ return.

As clearly seen on the chart the correction has stopped at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest up leg – July 12th to July 14th, which is also acting as strong support level at 1.3040. In case of breaking this level, the pair will be poised to extend its decline towards 1.30 mark. 

Looking to the upside first resistance is seen at 1.3115 (Friday’s top) and next at 1.3160 9 (September 2016’s high).

UK Election Result, a Month Later - Webinar by ActivTrades

My broker ActivTrades held an excellent webinar on Wednesday, June 12^th, named UK Election Result, a Month Later. It was led by the multy-dimensional trades expert, CEO of THE STOP HUNTER training and consultancy business, Stephen Hoad.

Mr. Hoad pointed out the main market conditions a month after the UK snap election and shared his market attitude and sentiment. It was quite interesting and useful information because it’s a good guideline for understanding the consequences of the election. 

The webinar is stored at ActivTrades werbinar archivesection and if you are curious to watch it, follow this link!

GBP/USD At weekly high

On Wednesday the GBP/USD pair marked a two-week low at 1.2810, but since then we witnesses not just a recovery, but strong upward movement with a potentional fresh weekly top around 1.2975-1.2980 area.
Following Yellen’s dovish stance from Wednesday, the US dollar was seen weakened and meanwhile the UK labor market showed unexpected good numbers, which supported the pair to build this nice recovery.
On the four-hour time frame the parice has crossed to above the 20-day SMA, which has turned its direction to north. RSI and stochastic are displaying strong bullish momentum and are located within the positive territory.
Immediate support is located around 1.2930-1.2925 area and in case of breaking it to below, the pair is poised to meet net one at 1.2900.
Looking to the upside, momentum beyond the daily high could be extended towards the 1.30 mark. 

AUD/USD Surged closer to the yearly high around 0.7740

From the beginning of the week the AUD/USD pair is showing string upward momentum and today marked daily high at 0.7739, which is few pips below the yearly high posted om March 21st.

This movement is of course well supported by sure fundamentals as the consumer inflation expectations for July are well increasing and meanwhile the Chinese trade surplus showed better that expected numbers.  

Technical indicators on the four-hour time frame are confirming the short term bullish outlook. The price is developing above its 20-day SMA while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are staying flat and are acting as dynamic supports around 0.7500 – 0.7535 area. Stochastic has turned sharply to north and RSI is nearing overbought territory. As both indicators are displaying strong upward momentum, some exhaustion is not excluded that could lead to slight correction. 

However the rally might be extended towards 0.7835 – the last year’s high, with some risk to keep in mind in case of abrupt retracement due to profit taking.