NZD/USD Got rocked by the dovish RBNZ

The New Zealand Dollar got rocкed today after the RZNB’s decision to   keep interest rates at record low level of 1.75% until September 2020, a full year later than previously projected, which was a great surprise for the markets. The NZD/USD pair sharply plunged into the deep waters, losing around 125 pips and down with 1.85% for the day. 

Alongside the US Dollar  picked up its buying interest which further supported additional downward pressure and dragged the pair to its lowest level since March 2016.

Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains strongly bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing well below its moving averages, all aiming south. Technical indicators favour bears to grow stronger. RSI and stochastic are showing bearish momentum and had entered into extreme negative territories. 

From the current level 0.6624 the downside risk prevails and might send the pair towards the key support at 0.6600, which seems next obvious target. On the other hand any attempts by the bulls might now confront the 0.6680 area, which if flighted is followed by the 0.6900 handle.

USD/CAD Gaining positive traction

USD/CAD pushed below key 1.30 psychological mark yesterday after the upbeat Canadian economic data, especially the better than expected monthly GDP growth numbers. The pair managed to find some support at 1.1280 and today is trading higher with current market price 1.3018.
Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its moving averages. RSI is showing slow bullish momentum and is close to its mid-line. Stochastic is displaying strong upward movement above its mid-line.
The pair will meet first resistance at 1.3040, which if broken, the upward recovery could be extended towards 1.3095-1.3100 area. The downside remains supported by the 1.30 handle and lower at 1.2985.
While the Loonie is influenced by the weaker oil prices , the US dollar is gaining positive traction and  is getting more attractive ahead of today’s FOMC monetary policy decision and a good set of US economic releases - ADP report on private sector employment, ISM manufacturing PMI and the official EIA crude oil inventories report, which will bring fresh impetus. 

XAU/USD Correcting from the new 2018 low

Spot gold lost about $10.00 today and marked a fresh new 2018 low at $1254.50. Currently XAU/USD is trading at $1258.00 having corrected slightly.

Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains neutral to bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its bearish moving averages. RSI and stochastic had turned to south and both are nearing oversold areas. 

Immediate support is seen at $1250.00 which is broken to below next target for bears will be served by $1243.00, followed by $1236.00 while the upside yet remains capped by Monday’s low at $1264. 00.

USD/CAD Spiked higher above 1.30

The USD/CAD pair surged through the psychological 1.3000 handle today and the rally surpassed the late March high at 1.3046. The bulls reached daily high at 1.3066 but retreated to currently trade at 1.3010 however adding 100 around pips for the day.
The strong bullish mode came after the gloomy Canada’s Q1 labor productivity data weakening the Canadian dollar while better than expected figures on US ISM's non-manufacturing PMI data fuelled the greenback.

Technically speaking the short term outlook remains neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing well above its moving averages with all of them aiming north. RSI and stochastic are showing strong bullish momentum although both are located slightly above their mid-lines.

A daily close above the late March’s high at 1.3046 will bring additional strength for bulls to test the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017 bearish run at 1.3127. On the other hand the profit-taking provoked by the latest rally might lead USD/CAD lower. In case of closing below 1.3000 barrier, which is providing first support now, deeper decline is expected towards 1.2910 – the 50% of above mentioned Fibo.

AUD/USD Vulnerable to deeper decline

Since April 19^th the AUD/USD pair entered into bearish trajectory and broke to below consecutively the 2016 bullish trend line and the bearish channel started from February 2018.  After having marked a new fresh 11-month low today at 0.7412, the pair bounced modesty to currently trade around 0.7450. However the pair remains vulnerable for further declines because the bears conquered the psychological support at 0.7500, now acting as a resistance. So a potential recovery might lead the price towards first resistance area at 0.7480 provided by 50% Fibonacci retracement of 2016-2018 bullish run, before nearing again this critical 0.75 mark. The downside is immediately protected by the 0.7410-0.7400, and in case the pair close below it, will be poised to extend its decline towards next support at 0.7370, which if broken will open doors for testing the 61.8% of same Fibo at 0.7327.  

GBP/USD Consolidating ahead of BoE’s decision

The GBP/USD pair bounced modestly from the multi-month lows at 1.3480 but yet bulls are not strong enough to reverse the trend despite the US dollar lost ground after Trump's decision to withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal. Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains neutral to bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its 100-day and 200-day SMAs, although is trying to break above the 20-day SMA, which is also bearish. RSI escaped from the oversold area but yet remains below its mid-line. Stochastic is giving initial sighs for U-turn and currently is located at 40. The limited upward potential can not offer much, so the GBP/USD pair is more likely to remain in consolidation phase within tight range between 1.3480 and 1.3600 until BOE's decision on Thursday. 

USD/JPY Bulls are unstoppable

The USD/JPY pair incredibly rallied today and gained around 100 pips, reaching its highest level since mid February. Safe-haven assets suffered huge selling pressure as the DXY was boosted by the US Treasury yields having marked 90.63, its highest level for over a month.

The preliminary Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for April came above the expectations and meanwhile BOJ's Kuroda pointed out that Japan should continue very strong accommodative policy for some time in order to achieve the 2% inflation goal.

Technically speaking the short term outlook remain bullish until US bull will not fail again. On the four hour time frame the price is developing well above its bullish moving averages. RSI and stochastic are locating within extreme overbought areas and moreover continue to keep upward strength.

Short term support is provided by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest November to March bearish run at 108.50. But having the strong upward traction of the moving averages it seems that the pair will avoid testing of this level and is more likely to continue towards the first resistance at 109.05 which if broke next challenge will be offered by 109.40.

USD/JPY Pushed higher but yet remains in consolidative phase

The USD/JPY pair jumped to 107.52 during the Asian session and succeeded to hold on gains for most of the last sessions, supported by rising US Treasury yields. Currently the pair is trading around 107.40 but despite the gravitation above 107.00, the  pair remains in a steady consolidative phase that has started from the beginning of April. It’s clearly seen that the pressure to the downside is limited but at the same time bulls are not strong enough to achieve impressive results.

Technically speaking the short term outlook remains neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing its flat moving averages. RSI is located slightly above its mid-line and is aiming north. Stochastic is visiting its overbought territory but has started to lose directional strength. 

However until holding above 107.10 the USD/JPY is favoring the upside rather than a downward move.Below this level stronger support is seen at 106.80 and is case breaking this mark to below, 106.50 is going to be tested. On the flip side, next target for the bull comes with 107.50 and higher at 107.85.

AUD/USD Found support at 61.8% Fibo

AUD/USD performed excellent today and marked daily high at 0.7773, escaping from the bottoms during the last two weeks. Currently the pair is trading at 0.7756, having slightly pulled back due to the influence of geopolitical tensions that drove oil and gold higher.

Also the FOMC minutes supported the downward slope, but the pair found support at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of latest November 2017 to January 2018 bullish run at 0.7745.

Technically speaking the short term outlook remains truly neutral. On the four hour time frame the price is developing above its moving averages, having bullish 20-day SMA and flat 100-day and 200-day SMAs. RSI and stochastic are showing overbought conditions, but both are losing directional strength.

Until the pair holds above 0.7740, the sentiments will remain in favour of the upside with bulls aiming towards next Fibonacci resistance at 0.7820. The downside is supported by 0.7740 and lower at 0.7700.

EUR/NZD Vulnerable ahead of GDP

Last week EUR/NZD surged higher and tested the significant resistance zone around 1.7130, with which bulls experience difficulties lately. Since then the pair suffered a huge drop and today was seen hovering around the key support at 1.6840.

Within the next hours the New Zealand Statistics will release the latest growth estimate with expectations of higher figures on GDP for the fourth quarter of 2017, but this optimism might play a low-down trick on the pair. 

On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its flat 100-day and 200-day SMAs, acting as first resistance at 1.6900. The 20-day SMA has eased its bearish slope and is currently located slightly above the current market price. 

RSI is hovering around 45 unable to find clear direction, while stochastic is showing string bearish momentum and is going to cross to below its mid-line.

During the upcoming session it’s very important to see how the pair will behave within the support zone at 1.6840 -1.6810. It’s a very significant area where last week’s lows met the bullish trend line, starting from February 2017. In case of breaking it to below, door are opened for testing 1.6720. On the upside the pair remains capped by the 100-day and 200-day SMAs and if bulls succeed to fight it and the to overcome next resistance at 1.7090, then we might be sure that the uptrend would hold for a while yet.

GBP/USD On a new channel to the upside

GBP/USD broke key levels and is nearing 1.4000 hurdle as the US dollar started to slide after the US inflation figures and the following political jitters on the replacement of the Secretary of State.

Thereupon and the lack of macro events in UK for tomorrow is uplifting the Cable to its highest level in over two weeks. The UK bulls were seen flirting with the 1.40 level but obviously are a little bit hesitant as currently the pair is trading at 1.3967.

Technically speaking the short term outlook remains bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing within an ascendant channel, having stalled close to the upside of it. Also the pair succeeded to cross to above its moving averages, which are looking for direction. RSI and stochastic are located within strong overbought areas but both are strating to lose strength. 

Given all above the Cable is likely to push above 1.4000 and just technically this point converges with the upper side of the channel.