Rebel Rebel

Theresa May might face no-confidence vote over Brexit, as Labour is going to challenge the government in the House of Commons. In fact the time is running out and the confidence of May’s abilities to negotiate the terms of Brexit with EU is vanishing. British people do no feel protection, promoting of jobs and development of economy in longer term.

While Tory rebels are making plans to oust Theresa May and to demand she steps down by January, she is doing incredible efforts for softer Brexit.

Pound rebels in line with Brexit headlines. GBP/USD edged lower, close to the intraday low at 1.3112 and EUR/GBP soared to 0.8975.

I would not quote exactly Rebel Rebel, this amazing Bowie’s song, because it’s bi-curious. But the main point is why being a rebel. Finally you'll see that the love of competition and people’s greed bring  wars and heartache.

And as Bowie sings „Hey babe, your hair's alright”. Both with hair done in same style, but which UK rebel you prefer? My favorite is Bowie!

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Today’s economic calendar

Today the macroeconomic agenda is not offering significant events, but the more interesting will be released in the afternoon. And here is what is going to stir the markets today:

Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence for December, 17:00. It was -6 points and is expected to remain unchanged.

Existing Homes Sales for November, US 17:00. Previous figure is 5.60 million and the forecast is for a decrease to 5.50 million.

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) for Q3, New Zealand 23.45. It was 0.9% and the expectations for lower number - 0.8%.Current Account Balance for the third quarter, New Zealand 23.45. The previous quarter it was -0.95 billion and the forecast to be changed to -4.89 billion.

GBP/USD lower today

GBP/USD was quite indecisive during yesterday’s session, but succeeded to keep the bullish intraday signals and hit 1.3057 earlier this morning. Having in mind that the Cable experienced huge downward pressure recently, this performance surprised the market participants. The marco agenda for today suggests the Mortgage Approvals and Net Consumer Credit reports for August in UK, which are of medium importance, but yet the pair is sensitive enough and another leg down is very possible.

Immediate support is seen at 1.3000, and pushing below it could lead price to neutral trading zone for testing 1.2950/00, but yet the key support remains at 1.2790. Looking to the upside, resistance is located at 1.3050, 1.3500 and 1.500.

USD/CHF stuck around 0.98 handle

USD/CHF couldn’t post any significant movement yesterday. The pair manages to stay around 0.98 mark, after the bulls trying to conquer 0.9820 last Friday. Currently the bias remains bullish with next target 0.9850 - 0.9900 area. The intraday support is seen at 0.9745, where the 100-day and 50-day moving averages are crossing. A clear break below that area could lead the pair to neutral zone for testing 0.9750 - 0.9700 area. Further downside next support is located at 0.9690. Looking to the upside, resistance is seen at 0.9850. Major macro data that could stir the markets is due today by the SECO (State Secretariat for Economic Affairs) and tomorrow all eyes will be on Fed’s meeting.

Oil production in OPEC dropped to 3-month low in August

Oil production in the OPEC dropped to 3-month low in August, according to the preliminary data. The production in the cartel has decreased by 200 thousand barrels a day to 33 million barrels a day in August, which is the lowest level since May. The OPEC data will be officially presented on Monday, but before the official publication some corrections might be expected.

The decline in production is due to decreases in the production of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar. Some representatives of the organization state that the countries lower the record-high yields and are ready to cooperate for the sake of possibly freezing yields. Later this month this will be discussed at a meeting in Algeria.

The yield in Iran remains at 3.6 million barrels per day in August - as in May. The Islamic Republic said it wants to increase production to over 4 million barrels per day. Some OPEC officials claim that Tehran has already reached that level.

The output in Venezuela has decreased by 200 thousand barrels per day this year and the last two months has stabilized to 2.1 million barrels per day. Production in Algeria and Libya in August decreased respectively by 9000 barrels per day and 28 thousand barrels per day.

Only Iraq and Nigeria have significant increases. Authorities in Baghdad have reported OPEC that the yield increased by 32 thousand barrels per day to 4.64 million barrels a day in August. In Nigeria the production increased by 186 thousand barrels per day to 1.46 million barrels per day.

International US trade deficit shrank by nearly 12%

The international US trade deficit shrank by nearly 12 % in July thanks to rising exports. This is a signal of strengthening global demand for goods and services.

The trade deficit of the world's leading economy fell in July by 11.6% to 39.47 billion dollars from a deficit of 44.66 bln dollars in June, reflecting the large increases in exports and the decrease in imports. The average forecast of the financial markets were for a larger deficit amounting to about 41.1 bln dollars.

Imports fell 0.8% to 225.81 bln dollars, but at the same time, exports rose 1.9% to 186.33 bln dollars. This represents the largest increase in US exports for two and a half years and it is a fact despite the sharp appreciation of the dollar at the end of June and most of July in reaction to the surprising Brexit vote.