He Who Marches Out Of Step Hears Another Drum

„He Who Marches Out Of Step Hears Another Drum”. I found my favourite quote from „One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest” so appropriate to Pound’s behaviour today. The Brexit bill was finally negotiated between EU and UK and the 60 bn euro financial settlement will be accomplished before the deadline on December 4th.

Despite the pullback during the early NY session to 1.3220, the GBP/USD pair is currently trading at 1.3374. On the four hour time frame the price is located above its bullish moving averages. RSI and stochastic had turned sharply bounced from their oversold readings and are showing strong bullish momentum. The rally might extend in case of disappointing US data tomorrow and next bulls target is seen at 1.3420. 

USD/CAD Flashed higher

Loonie is seen uplifted today and marked fresh weekly high at 1.1824. The USD/CAD pair is up with 0.36% and currently is trading at 1.2808, which is impressive having in mind yesterday’s low at around 140 pips below. Against the majors from Europe the greenback maintains strength, but meanwhile the Canadian dollar suffered as recent weak inflation readings occurred to be surprising. The Financial System Review from the Bank of Canada brought nothing new for markets, but expectations for rate hikes in March 2018 remained intact. Technically speaking the pair maintains bullish short term outlook. On the four hour time the price is located well below its moving averages, having bullish 20-day SMA and flat 100-day and 200-day SMAs. RSI and stochastic are located within their extreme overbought areas, but both are starting to lose directional strength. The USD/CAD pair was seduced by the last week’s high at 1.2835, but as it’s seen failed to grab it. Bulls would fee more confident only above the resistance at 1.2860 and this might force them to test next one at 1.2895. Looking to the downside, bears are trilled by the 23.6% Fibonacci retarcement of latest September to October bullish run around 1.2720. 

EUR/USD The Force is strong with this one

Along the long road and on down the causeway. That’s what happens with the EUR/USD pair lately. But the force awakened for the bulls and the battlefield around 1.70 area was successfully beaten. At a higher altitude, with flag unfurled and a new conquest at 1.1960 today. But a retreatment we witnessed and currently hovering around 1.1900 the pair is. 

Despite the modest pullback it’s unlikely to watch again the attack of the cloned bears. The four hour time galaxy is showing above moving averages price moving. RSI and stochastic had slightly retreated from their extreme overbought orbits, but yet remain within positive readings. Lack of faith disturbing for bears is, 1.1890 level where the Force is strong with. Clearer clues for the pair there are with pre-ECB’s levels and upcoming inflation figures from both major planets within the forex empire.
May the force be with your trading!

Volatile week ahead

For the week ahead one of the most intriguing events will be the progress on the tax reform in the US. Of course, OPEC meeting is on the headlines along with Fed’s Chair nominee Powell’s confirmation hearing and JEC testimony from Yellen.

This  Monday we will have release of new homes sales figures in USA and FOMC Member Kashkari speech.

Tuesday will bring data on consumer confidence survey in Germany, BoE’s Bank stress results and financial stability report as well as several bankers’speeches in USA.

On Wednesday, the highly anticipated meeting between oils ministers from OPEC will take place in Vienna. Next on the agenda for the day will follow macro data for the euro area, consumer prices index in Germany, GDP Q3 numbers in USA and Fed’s Beige book report. Additionally, Fed Chair Yellen will give her final JEC testimony.

On Thursday will be announced the outcome from the OPEC meeting. Further on are due data on business activity in China - industry and services sectors, retails sales numbers and unemployment rate in Germany. Eurostat will publish inflation data for the euro area. Within Unites States we can expect data on personal expenditure index.

Friday are expected several Markit’s Manufacturing PMI reports.  

NZD/USD Lower following NZ trade deficit

New Zealand's trade deficit narrowed to $871m in October. Excluding the import of a large aircraft, the result was close to our forecast of a $600m deficit, much larger that expected. Following the unsympathetic figures, NZD/USD parked at lower side of last session’s range. On the four hour time frame the price is trapped between the 100-day and 200-day SMAs with current market price 0.6873. Sell offs during the early Asia session are pushing the pair towards south area and as seen on the same chart RSI and stochastic had retreated from the overbought areas and are displaying strong bearish momentum. The 100-day SMA is providing the first resistance level at 0.6885-0.6890 and in case of breaking it to above, the pair will resume its upward potential, that has started from the beginning if the week. But currently the pair is vulnerable around 0.6870 and additional bearish pressure would drag it lower towards 0.6820 – 0.6800. In the last trading day for the week US PMI figures later on today would spur greenback’s influence and would set more clear direction for NZD/USD. 

EUR/USD Thanksgiving dollar supports euro bulls

EUR/USD printed fresh top at 1.1855 today, having the thanksgiving US dollar, yet suffering from the FOMC's Minutes release. Meanwhile the single currency was so much supported by the November preliminary PMIs, showing better than expected numbers, that couldn’t react to ECB minutes. The pair stayed firm and keeps surfing at the upper edge of its latest trend.

Technically speaking the EUR/USD pair is keeping its short term bullish outlook. On the four hour time the price is situated well above its moving averages, having bullish 20-day SMA, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs had slowed down. RSI and stochastic had turned sharply to north and reached the extreme overbought territories, but currently eased and are looking for direction. 

Should the pair cross the 1.1860 level (mid November’s high), then the interest will lead to 1.1890. Looking to the downside, first hurdle is seen at 1.1830  and lower at 1.1790. 

USD/JPY Found support at 50% Fibo

FOMC's meeting Minutes and the soft figures on durable goods orders in USA hurt USD/JPY and the pair dropped to 111.15, - 1.14% for the day and  thus marked a fresh new two-months low. Technically speaking, the short term outlook remains bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is placed well below its moving averages, having bearish 20-day SMA and flat 100-day and 200-day SMAs. Stochastic has reached extreme oversold area and is showing strong downward slope. RSI is located slightly below 30 level and is also displaying bearish momentum. As seen on the same chart the price finds support at the 50% Fibonacci retrаcement of latest September to early November bullish run around 111.00. The risk leans to the downside and in case the pair crosses to below above mentioned level, doors are opened for testing next support area around 110.90 (the unfilled gap from early September). However, tomorrow will be a calm day due the Thanksgiving day in both US and Japan and no significant moves are expected, but on Friday are due Manufacturing PMIs and the pair is going to resume its movement.

AUD/USD tumbled on dovish RBA

In the early Asian session Aussie fell to 0.7530, a level that has not been visited since late June. The mover for this sharp drop is the dovish RBA minutes, as the central bankers are concerned about the job market outlook and slow growth in wages and there for will keep neutral stance for the foreseeable future.
AUD/USD rebounded from the five month low during the Europe trade and the current market price is 0.7575. The recovery was supported by RBA Governor Phillip Lowe's remarks that next move in rates would most likely be up rather than down, which fuelled the Australian Dollar bulls.
On the four hour time frame the price is below its bearish 100-day and 200-day SMAs and few pips above the 20-day SMA, also bearish. Stochastic is showing strong upward momentum and is slightly above its mid-line, while RSI is located at the mid and has lost directional strength.
The pair remains well supported by the key level at 0.7500, but if breaking it, doors are opened for testing early May’s low at 0.7330. Looking to the upside, 0.7585 is first bulls target and in case of conquering it, the pair would be seen beyond 0.7600.

GBP/USD Shuffled by Brexit headlines, but keeps gains

The GBP/USD is see higher today and marked a two and half  week high at 1.3279 during the early London session, amid the German political concerns and stronger Pound on PM May’s plans to move Brexit talks into second phase. Later on the day pair sharply retreated from the mentioned high and is currently trading at 1.3234. On the four hour time frame the price is moving above its moving averages, having bullish 20-day SMA, which to above the  100-day and 200-day SMAs, both keeping flat stance. Stochastic is showing strong bearish momentum and RSI has turned to north, but both are well above their mid-lines. The short term outlook remains neutral to bullish. Should the pair jump above 1.3260, next bulls’ target will be the key level at 1.3300. 

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USD/CAD In consolidation mode ahead of US tax reform vote

USD/CAD retreated from the upper levels that was seen during the last sessions, as better than expected Canadian data boosted the loonie. 

As the time of writing the current market price is 1.2735, posting 0.20% down for the day from the intarday high at 1.2786. As seen on the four hour time frame the pair met support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest September to late October bullish run at 1.2715. On the same chart the price is developing below its flat 100-day and turned to bearish 20-day SMAs. Stochastic is nearing its mid-line and is displaying strong bearish momentum RSI is located around its mid-line, but has lost directional strength. 

The USD/CAD is consolidating around the 1.2700 handle, the lowest points ot October range. Technically we have mixed signals with prevailing neutral stance. Next on focus is the voting in the House over US tax reform, which will give more clear direction and trend strength. 

USD/JPY Still feel bears around

The USD/JPY pair is seen down today and marked a four week low at 112.47during the European session. The US Treasury yields recovered with equities, which backed up the pair and an upward corrective followed and now  the pair is hovering around the 113.00 level. As seen on the four hour time frame USD/JPY found resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest September to early November bullish run at 113.00 and and the pair retreated to currently trade at 112.92. However the same chart is showing that the sentiment leans to the downside. The price is moving below is moving averages, having bearish 200-day SMA, but the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are staying flat. RSI and stochastic had retreated from the extreme oversold areas but also had lost upward momentum. According to above a bearish extension is expected for the upcoming sessions.  

AUD/USD Bulls can’t fight 0.77 handle

Aussie hit a new fresh four-month low at 0.7609 yesterday, a level that has not been visited since July 11th. And this is where the AUD/USD pair found support after the stellar performance of the NAB August business conditions survey figures. 

Today the pair is seen higher and marked daily high at 0.7651, but currently is tarding at 0.7631. The retreatment is mostly due to the China’s macro data that was softer than expected.

Technically speaking, Aussie keeps its bearish stance since early November when bulls lost the fight for the 0.77 handle. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its moving averages, all with bearish slopes. RSI is hovering around 40 and has lost directional strength. Stochastic is showing bullish momentum, but is yet far below its mid-line. 

Yestarday’s low is providing immediate support and in case of breaking to below, doors are opened for testing 0.7570 (early July’s low). 

Triumph of the ambitions over the abilities

It’s been one year ago (November 8th 2016) since Donald Trump shocked the world and became the 45 President of the United States. And 365 days he spent his time to remind us about this fact by daily tweets. He didn't skipped the beat and made self-congratulatory for the anniversary even being far away from the White House, of course with memorable tweet.

This year will be remembered also with non-diplomatic speeches, endorsement of religious bigotry, incitement of political violence, mocking of disabled, condemnation of equality and treating women like pieces of meat. And the failure of the promises, which were the signature of his campaign. 

The Obama repeal, the „beautiful” border wall that should be paid by Mexico, and a trillion dollar infrastructure blitz remain difficult to achieve. The tax reform plan if giving some glimmers of hope, but details are not ironed out yet. 

Well, thumbs up, great photo, a perfect frame that opposes reality. Too big ambitions. But mismatched the abilities.  

There is a huge gap between thinking big things and actually doing something big.

 

USD/JPY Hovering around session lows

The US tax reform delay talks drove the equities in the US lower, which reflected to the USD/JPY pair and today was seen hovering around the weekly low at 113.08. Good support is provided by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest September to October bullish run around 113.00 area and however so far the pair is cautions over there.

Technically speaking the short term outlook for the USD/JPY pair remains neutral to bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its 20-day and 100-day SMAs, while the 200-day  SMA is providing support at around 113.08 (the weekly low). Both RSI and stochastic and located below their mid-lines and are starting to decline towards south. 

The current market price is 113.27 and the pair is poised to extend its decline in case of breaking the 113.00 handle and further darting at 112.50-112.60. The upward momentum is limited by the 113.60, but in case of fighting, bulls will be eyeing 114.05.             

NZD/USD Boosted on RBNZ statement

As it was expected, The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the official cash rate unchanged at 1.75% and maintained its “on hold” stance for the monetary policy. The central bankers revised up its inflation forecasts and assumed that the the outlook for the economy was improving. In line with this the New Zealand dollar was boosted and posted some gains, while the US dollar was trading mixed on the talks of tax reform delays.
Technically speaking the NZD/USD pair is showing good bullish traction. On the four hour time frame the price has crossed to above its bullish 20-day SMA, while the 100-day and 200-day SMA maintain moderate bearish slopes. RSI is heading north and is posting higher highs and lower lows. Stochastic is located within extreme overbought territory, but has eased for now. During the Asian session the pair nailed a two week high at 0.6975, but retreated later and calmed at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest September to October bearish leg.
First support is provided by the daily low at 0.6943, below which the pair will be poised to retest yesterday’s low at 0.6915 and in case of crossing it to below, doors will be opened for the key level 0.6900. Looking to the upside, a a certain move beyond the above mentioned 23.6% Fibo at 0.6966, which is the current price meanwhile, should reload bulls’ energy and dart them towards the psychological mark 0.7000.