Cable up ahead of BOE

Having no particular reason today the GBP/USD pair is seen uplifted and leaving the tight range from the past several sessions. One thing is sure, the spirit level is higher ahead of BOE’s rate decision on Thursday, when the first rate hike from a decade is expected. The Central bankers are going to rise the rates by 25 basic points on the back up of resilient post-Brexit UK economy.
The GBP/USD is trading up with 0.29% for the day with current market price 1.3245.
From technical point of view, the short term outlook is neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price has crossed to above the 20-day and 100-day SMA, while the 200-day SMA is staying flat and is acting as a dynamic resistance around 1.33 level. Stochastic is located withing extreme overbought territory, but has lost directional strength. RSI is marking higher highs and lowers lows and is aiming north.
Having in mind above, bulls are well supported, but first will have to conquer the immediate resistance at 1.3275 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of early October bullish run) with next target on the psychological level 1.3300.  

USD/JPY Slightly up on dovish BOJ

BOJ’s monetary policy decision today is not the event that was expected to be for markets. The central bank left the rate at -0.1% t and kept on hold the yield target at around zero percent, although  the GDP forecasts have been revised higher, but the inflation forecast have been revised lower. Overall, no surprise.
Following BOJ, the USD/JPY pair is seen uplifted and started to recover from the daily low at 112.95. As the time of writing the pair is up with 0.24% and the current market price is 113.46.
From technical point of view, the short term outlook is neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing above the bullish 100-day and 200-day SMAs,while the 20-day SMA is staying flat around 113.65. RSI and stochastic had retreated from their extreme oversold areas and are displaying strong bullish momentum.
A break above 113.80 would challenge bulls to march higher towards 114.45 (last week’s high). On the other hand, immediate support at the 100-day SMA  around 112.95, where the daily low was marked. Next one is seen at 112.50.            

Busy week ahead

The last week brought turbulence on the markets and happened to be very good for the US dollar, which popped off over the other currencies. But the most remarkable is the EUR/USD fall after the dovish ECB.  

Looking to the week ahead, it seems to be even more interesting having rate decisions from three central banks. 

And here are the events with high importance, which the Economic calendar offers:

On Monday we can expect the PCE for September in USA and German CPI.

Tuesday will be very busy day. In the early hours we have the BOJ rate decision and the press conference after it. Next on the agenda will be the Euro-zone GDP Q3, followed by the Canada’s GDP. In the afternoon US will release data on CCI and the day will end with Employment change figures in New Zealand. 

On Wednesday the Markrit Canada Manufacturing PMI and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI are due, but the most intriguing event for the day will be the Fed’s interest rate decision.

On Thursday Germany will release data on Unemployment rate for October  and next on focus will come the BOE with their interest rate  decision, followed by BOE’s Governor Carney speech.

Friday will bring US NFP figures for October and Unemployment rate in Canada.  

USD/JPY Capped by 61.8% Fibo

USD/JPY jumped this morning and nailed new fresh 3-month high following the US GDP report, that boosted the greenback. On the other hand CPI in Japan met the expectations of rising with 0.7% y/y, but had insignificant effect on markets. 

Technically speaking, the pair is keeping neutral to bullish stance. USD/JPY pushed higher but stalled at 114.31, which is strong resistance level provided by 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of December 2016 to September 2017 bearish decline. 

On the four hour time frame the price is developing above its moving averages, all of the with bullish slope. Stochastic has started to turn south, but yet remains within positive territory. RSI is located slightly above its mid-line and is aiming north.   

Now the pair is hovering around 114.00 area with current market price 114.02. Bullish continuation will be confirmed only above the barrier at 114.31 with next focus on 114.39. Looking to downside, immediate support is see at 113.29 and in case of breaking it to below, doors are opened for testing 113.00 (50% Fibo of same decline).

GBP/USD Negative real wage growth dragged the pair lower

Q3 GDP showed better-than-expected figures yesterday and consequently the Sterling ticked up higher levels. GBP/USD continued rising this morning and reached 1.3278, but corrected lower to currently trade at 1.3216. ONS released the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, which showed negative real wage growth for the first time since 2014.

From technical point of view, the short term outlook is neutral to bearish. The price is developing below its 200-day SMA, acting as a resistance at 1.33. Meanwhile the 20-day SMA has crossed the bearish 100-day SMA, but is quite hesitant and is looking for direction.

Stochastic had retreated from the positive territory and is displaying strong bearish momentum. RSI also retreated from the north area and is currently located around its mid-line.

GBP/USD is trading now at the 32.8% Fibonacci retracement of its latest October bullish run and as seen on the four-hour time frame the daily range is between the 23.6% and 50% of the same Fibo.

Last one at 50% around 1.3180 is key support for the pair and in case of crossing it below, doors are opened for testing 1.3090.

We have ECB rate decision today and usually EUR/GBP influences the GBP/USD. In case of hawkish stance, the cable will extend its decline towards above mentioned level. 

Rebel Rebel

Theresa May might face no-confidence vote over Brexit, as Labour is going to challenge the government in the House of Commons. In fact the time is running out and the confidence of May’s abilities to negotiate the terms of Brexit with EU is vanishing. British people do no feel protection, promoting of jobs and development of economy in longer term.

While Tory rebels are making plans to oust Theresa May and to demand she steps down by January, she is doing incredible efforts for softer Brexit.

Pound rebels in line with Brexit headlines. GBP/USD edged lower, close to the intraday low at 1.3112 and EUR/GBP soared to 0.8975.

I would not quote exactly Rebel Rebel, this amazing Bowie’s song, because it’s bi-curious. But the main point is why being a rebel. Finally you'll see that the love of competition and people’s greed bring  wars and heartache.

And as Bowie sings „Hey babe, your hair's alright”. Both with hair done in same style, but which UK rebel you prefer? My favorite is Bowie!

May you live in interesting times

The irony of this seemingly a blessing and considered as a Chinese curse, composes the world lately and brought meaning to my reading of the news over the weekend.
In fact, despite being widely attributed as a Chinese curse, there is no equivalent expression in Chinese. The nearest related Chinese expression sounds much more like "Better to be a dog in a peaceful time, than to be a human in a chaotic period.

That’s how probably felt Nemo, the French President Macron’s dog, when interrupted the talks of inner-city investments with junior ministers at the presidential office and took a leak against the fireplace. Probably Nemo thought that fireplace was actually Trump.

Meanwhile on the other coast the US President is struggling for his tax reform, having claimed that it’s a ‘middle class tax break that works’  and Republicans had been mulling lowering the annual deduction. Also he did an agreement with Japan’s PM Abe to work together over the rising pressure form North Korea. You see how busy was acting Mr Trump that he skipped a beat on his image and the social medias took an advantage.

Back in Europe, the tension between Madrid and Catalonia escalated over the weekend, having the central government announcement that will remove the Catalan leadership and threatened that will set strong jail terms immediately in case of a formal declaration of independence.
Meanwhile in Italy this weekend two of Italy’s wealthier regions voted for greater autonomy.
And along with the lack of major marco data today, the single currency remains soft and without any sharp declines.

Yes, interesting times we live! Take care of your dogs!

The ActivTrades Financial Trading Summit 2017

After the great success of the Financial Trading Summit in London last year, this year ActivTrades is hosting The ActivTrades Financial Trading Summit 2017 on 28^th October 2017 in Dubai. It will take place from 10:30 to 18:00 at Shangri-La Dubai Hotel, Sheikh Zayed Road, Near Financial Metro Station, Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

On this incredible event you will meet the best professionals,who will dicsuss the major market movers and most significat events of 2017 which have influenced the financial markets and your investments, as well as what could lie ahead. The professional traders invited for this event by AvtivTrades are Dr. Andrew Lumsden Groom, Ann Hunt, Sara Waqar and Nour Eldeen Muffeed KH.

The programme of the Financial Trading Summit is as follows:

- Applying Methods to Improve Trading Efficiency

- Psychological Trading

- Risk Management

- An in-depth look into Fundamental Analysis

- Panel Discussion

The programme will also include tea and coffee as well as lunch.

The participation is free of charge.

To learn more details and to register for The ActivTrades Financial Trading Summit, follow this link!

The Amazing Rally

270 pips up today. Yes, it is an amazing rally for the AUD/NZD pair.

Of course strong and interesting fundamentals are staying behind the scene. And turned that it’s not a scene, it’s a macro news race.  

The day started with better-than-expected figures on employment data in Australia and next on the agenda came China’s GDP, showing slowdown in the third quarter. Having in mind that China is the Australia’s largest trading partner, both news had well supported the Australian dollar. As I already mentioned in my previous post, today it became clear that in New Zealand the First Party will be coalited with Labor and Greens to form a government and this announcement was not well accepted by the markets because the risk of taking measures for correcting the New Zealand dollar overvaluation by the new government is increasing. This is about to change the interest rate differential between New Zealand and Australia in next months and would appreciate even higher the exchange rate of AUD/NZD.From a technical viewpoint, the AUD/NZD is showing strong bullish signs, because first of all since April 2015 we are witnessing higher lows. Meanwhile on the four hour time frame the price is well above all its moving averages. The 20-day SMA turned to bullish and crossed to above the flat 200-day SMA with also having 100-day SMA uptrending. RSI and stochastic are located within extreme overbought conditions and are starting to ease over there. Today a new 2017 high was marked at 1.1224 and currently the pair slightly retreated to 1.1207. According to indicators, that might show some exhaustion, in the short term we may expect a pullback. Until then I remain bullish on this pair unless we see formation of a clear reversal pattern at the upper levels.

Kiwi bulls favor the current government

The NZD/USD pair fell sharply today to more than a four-month low after it became clear that the First Party will be coalited with Labor and Greens to form a government.
This announcement was not well accepted by the markets because the risk of taking measures for correcting the New Zealand dollar overvaluation by the new government is increasing.
In the late Asian session the NZD/USD pair dropped with over 1.5% and as the time of writing the price is 0.7037. As seen on the four hour time frame the price is below all its moving averages and also broke to below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of latest May to July bullish run, at 0.71. Indicators on the same chart are showing strong bearish momentum and are located within their extreme oversold areas. Having in mind above, it seems that further weakness is expected and the bears might test the psychological support at 0.7000.