Got a new face, it feels alright

As a big fan of horror I follow impatiently the new wave of political chaos in Britain. The destabilised UK government is entering into state of emergency. The PM Theresa May was hit by a double Cabinet resignation within 24 hours, losing both her Foreign Secretary and the chief Brexit negotiator. 

Last night Mrs May appointed Jeremy Hunt , ex Health Minister an her faithful slave, backer of soft Brexit as the new face of Foreign Secretary. And this is to reaffirm the faltering authority to carry out negotiations with Brussels. This turbulent political situation is again showing the unstable Europe’s island neighbour. 

This last release of Brexit drama I may label Cast the die of a leadership bid and will in all likelihood challenge the prime minister to seize the fruit of his ambition which devours him. 

Bad witch. New world. New times. Mutation. Feels alright. The Brexit dream is dying.

GBP/USD May and Juncker do not disturb much

GBP/USD rallied today to reach daily high at 1.3538, but the enthusiasm was fleeting as the pair dropped with over 80 pips. Pound bears were awaken following no agreement between UK and EU. The European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker is still confident about an agreement that might be reached ahead of December 15th summit. And according to PM May, both sides are giving their best and are in good faith, so the progress has been made and there is common understanding on lots of issues.

From technical point of view, the pair is moving well above its 100-day and 200-day SMAs, that are keeping bullish stance, while the 20-day SMA, also bullish, is just two pips above the current price. Stochastic has retreated from the extreme negative territory and is displaying strong bullish momentum. RSI is located around its mid-line and seems that has lost directional strength. 

The GBP/USD is favoring a new leg higher if breaks the 1.3505 level and then on focus will be 1.3550. On the other hand, the pair remains vulnerable around 1.3420 area and in case bears fight it, next target will be 1.3380. 

Rebel Rebel

Theresa May might face no-confidence vote over Brexit, as Labour is going to challenge the government in the House of Commons. In fact the time is running out and the confidence of May’s abilities to negotiate the terms of Brexit with EU is vanishing. British people do no feel protection, promoting of jobs and development of economy in longer term.

While Tory rebels are making plans to oust Theresa May and to demand she steps down by January, she is doing incredible efforts for softer Brexit.

Pound rebels in line with Brexit headlines. GBP/USD edged lower, close to the intraday low at 1.3112 and EUR/GBP soared to 0.8975.

I would not quote exactly Rebel Rebel, this amazing Bowie’s song, because it’s bi-curious. But the main point is why being a rebel. Finally you'll see that the love of competition and people’s greed bring  wars and heartache.

And as Bowie sings „Hey babe, your hair's alright”. Both with hair done in same style, but which UK rebel you prefer? My favorite is Bowie!

GBP/USD Remains under pressure

UK election results dragged the Cable towards deep waters and the GBP/USD marked low at 1.2632. The pair bounced to the upside but however closed at 1.2742. 

Uncertainty is affecting widely on the pair, as Theresa May failed to ensure the needed support to come to a deal with the European union and has lost seats at the Common House and is lack of majority.

Technically speaking, the short-term is likely to remain bearish. On the four-hour time frame the price is moving well below its moving averages. 

RSI and stochastic had corrected from the extreme oversold readings and are more likely to support a new leg towards the downside. Both indicators had lost directional strength but yet remain well below their mid-lines. 

The political uncertainty has not disappeared and the Cable will be under pressure in the near future. And besides UK, the pair will be affected by next week’s FOMC decision. 

An unusual Thursday ahead

Lately markets are living on the edge over everything from terror attacks in London,  Middle East’s uncertainties, the turmoil surrounding Trump’s administration to the dramatic UK elections.

But at this very moment the tension on markets is extremely rising ahead of very unusual Thursday, as we have three quite important events.

The official views on inflation will be reveiled on the European Central Bank’s meeting and most important is will there be any change in its easing stance. Hopes somehow have been reinforced by the hawkish position of policymakers, but let’s see if Super Mario will keep his dovish stand about  QE, considering the attempts to down-talk the possibility to trim easings.

Next to come is the former FBI Director James Comey 's testimony. In case he state that US President Donald Trump had asked him to avoid investigating the "Russia-gate", possible impeachment issue will be on focus. Markets do not care much about politics as there is no huge impact in economy, but I expect that US dollar will be sent down across the board.

Alongside with the ECB and Comey’s testimony, this Thursday the UK will have their General Election. Current polls show Conservatives 44 pct and Labour on 34 pct. Conservative victory with or without absolute majority or laborist victory? Whatever happens there are no doubts that high volatility is guaranteed. 

The Brexit is not enough, skyfalls over the Pound

The Brexit is not enough. September skyfalled over the Pound and it continued drifting. Fundamentals were ignored. BoE left rates unchanged. PIM pointed neglection of initial reactions caused by the referendum. Politicians’ spectre is not colourful enough. For their eyes only economic indicators are not seen in the living daylights. 

Another shock was delivered this week by the Prime Minister Theresa May. A view to kill the access to the single market by limiting the people migration. Mrs No already scheduled Rocky Brexit. Do you think UK economy can stand this turbulence? Well the Pound coundn’t and fell to a new fresh 31-year low against the US dollar. Uncertainty is rising inevitably and this will not bring anything sustainable for the Pound.

Technically speaking for the GBP/USD pair the bias remains bearish. RSI is slightly above the oversold area, momentum is showing bearish signals DMI’s provide confirmation. Moving above the current level of 1.275 would be possible in a short-term perspective,but anyway we must consider the weakness of the Pound and expect further downward movement.