Thursday, 10 May 2018

EUR/USD On wait and see mode ahead of US CPI


The greenback has paused its recent rally ahead of the core U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data today. Signs of above target numbers may push FOMC to take more aggressive approach on monetary policy.
US inflation is the key event for today and EUR/USD has turned on wait and see mode. The pair is trading undisturbed around 1.1880. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its bearish moving averages and currently is trying to break to above the 20-day SMA. RSI and stochastic had retreated from their oversold areas and both are showing good upward strength although are yest below their mid-lines.
EUR/USD might generate a rebound, according to indicators on the same chart, but only if advancing above 1.1900. Then this could be considered as a corrective recovery with next targets 1.1950 and the psychological 1.1200 mark. On the other hand the pair
stands at risk for further declines with a break and close below the 1.1810 - 1.1790 area. 


Wednesday, 9 May 2018

AUD/USD Vulnerable to deeper decline

Since April 19th the AUD/USD pair entered into bearish trajectory and broke to below consecutively the 2016 bullish trend line and the bearish channel started from February 2018.  After having marked a new fresh 11-month low today at 0.7412, the pair bounced modesty to currently trade around 0.7450. However the pair remains vulnerable for further declines because the bears conquered the psychological support at 0.7500, now acting as a resistance. So a potential recovery might lead the price towards first resistance area at 0.7480 provided by 50% Fibonacci retracement of 2016-2018 bullish run, before nearing again this critical 0.75 mark. The downside is immediately protected by the 0.7410-0.7400, and in case the pair close below it, will be poised to extend its decline towards next support at 0.7370, which if broken will open doors for testing the 61.8% of same Fibo at 0.7327.  


Tuesday, 8 May 2018

GBP/USD Consolidating ahead of BoE’s decision


The GBP/USD pair bounced modestly from the multi-month lows at 1.3480 but yet bulls are not strong enough to reverse the trend despite the US dollar lost ground after Trump's decision to withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal. Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains neutral to bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its 100-day and 200-day SMAs, although is trying to break above the 20-day SMA, which is also bearish. RSI escaped from the oversold area but yet remains below its mid-line. Stochastic is giving initial sighs for U-turn and currently is located at 40. The limited upward potential can not offer much, so the GBP/USD pair is more likely to remain in consolidation phase within tight range between 1.3480 and 1.3600 until BOE's decision on Thursday. 



Friday, 4 May 2018

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Thursday, 3 May 2018

Silver Is pushing higher


Silver continues to recover since marked the 2018 year low at 16.04 on 1st of May. Today XAG/USD pushed very high and reached daily high at 16,57. But seems it has found resistance around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest April to May bearish run. 
Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing above the 20-day SMA, which started to turn north, and the flat 100-day and 200-day SMAs. RSI is around its mid-line and has started to lean downwards. Stochastic has eased within the extreme positive area and is looking for direction. 
The downside is supported by the 23.6% Fibo of same retracement at 16,34. Below this level silver might meet again the support provided by the 2018 low at 16.04. On the other hand the technical picture suggests further short-term increase and if bulls succeed to conquer the 16,75 the doors will be opened for testing 16,87.




Wednesday, 2 May 2018

USD/JPY Remains bullish despite the dovish Fed

It’s all about Fed today. As widely expected the Central Bank left the interest rate unchanged but markets took their time to react on the dovish statement before the US Dollar dropped.
Well it’s hard to define the future as know or unknown. The Fed didn’t say that the outlook has improved. If the prospects are not better, there is no reason to accelerate increasing rates. Also  chances for a June hike after the statement seem to have disappeared. On the other hand the use of moderation word, copied from the ECB President Mario Draghi is a way to describe the slowdown. Meanwhile the US dollar gained strength during the past weeks and the hours before FOMC and this comes along with rising bond yields. This combination of fact and words after all pushed the greenback lower but it seems that this would be short lived.
USD/JPY fell to 109.60 as a reaction of Fed’s decision but then bounced to currently trade at 109.95. Technically speaking the short-term outlook remain neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing above its bullish moving averages.RSI and stochastic retreated from their extreme overbought areas although remain flat within the positive territories. 
As long as the pair holds above 109.00 handle, the trend favors the upside with next target for the bull at 110.00, which if broken to above would open doors for testing the February’s hi at 110.45.




Tuesday, 1 May 2018

GBP/JPY Found support at 38.2% Fibo but yet remains below two bullish trend lines


Since last Friday the GBP/JPY started sharp downward fall and quited the comfortable consolidation zone around 152.00. The pair broke to below two important support levels provided by 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci retracement of latest February to March bearish run. Today the next 38.2% level of same Fibo was tested but seems that here the pair found support. Having posted 0.69% down for the day currently the pair is trading around 149.50. 
Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing well below its moving averages,which are keeping downward slopes. RSI and stochastic are located withing negative territories but yet there is room for furthеr declines.
Meanwhile the pair is situated below two bullish trend lines. First is provided by post-Brexit levels and the other is the short-term trend line. As seen on the same chart both are нов acting as resistance zones that confluent at 61.8% Fibo. At this stage it is a very tough target for the bulls as Sterling still is under huge pressure due to worse that expected macro data released today and the prospects of a rate hike in May are getting very slim and this combined by the next round political woes. To get back into the long-trend the pair should fиrst conqueр the resistances at 150.42 and 150.85.