NZD/USD Shooting star and RSI divergence to define next move

Since late November 2017 the New Zealand Dollar is trying to fight against the US dollar. It’s a hard game to play. The NZD/USD pair touched its highest level since then at 0.7436, having formed a double top with the September 20 top.  Meanwhile as seen on the daily chart the New Zealand Dollar’s upwards march is hindered fundamentally by disappointing CPI figures and technically by the formed Shooting Star candlestick. Adding to this picture the RSI divergence comparing to the uptrend line staring from late December 2017.  

The pair is facing support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of latest August to November down slope at 0.7260, which in case of breaking would open doors for testing the 50% Fibo of same decline at 0.7165.   

During the past weeks we witness some signs of strength towards the upside, but yet remain difficult to catch. The immediate movement of the pair is yet confined by higher highs and lows, which do not exclude a sideways consolidation. So entering short is not a good option right now having the expectations for another bulls’ intervention.

AUD/USD The battle for 0.81 continues with busy Wednesday

Aussie lost ground during last sessions but is trying to recover. Nevertheless the battle for the 0.81 area remains in force. Today the AUD/USD pair marked daily high at 0.8113 but eased with US opening and currently is trading at 0.8084.The slide from the top took place amid the renewed rally of the greenback and the falling prices of oil and gold.

Technically speaking the short term outlook remains neutral. On the four hour time frame the price is moving above its 100-day and 200-day SMAs, while the 20-day one keeps flat around 0.8083 and the bulls fail to conquer it. RSI is located around its mid-line with lack of directional strength. Stochastic is showing bearish momentum with current location at 43. 

To add some gains the AUD/USD pair should first break the 0.8135 level in order to generate power to test the 0.8200 handle.

The upcoming Asian session will bring Australia’a December inflation figures which may push Aussie higher in case they come above expected. From the US side we’ll have President Trump’s speech, the ADP private employment report is due and then the Federal Reserve will announce its decisions. So busy Wednesday ahead and it’ll be interesting to observe the pair’s movement. 

Activtrades Enhanced Protection: Balance Protection

Negative balance protection means that your account will be brought to a zero balance if it goes into negative as a result of trading activity. In forex trading not everyone is able to tolerate losing money including experienced traders and newbies. That is why it is very important to find a broker that offers this service.

My broker, ActivTrades, is a true and proven defender of the interests of its clients and protects from negative balance. 

Your account has a trade out level, which is in force to make you sure that you’re not going to lose more money than your deposit. The Balance Protection Policy is another safeguard and it will compensate your account to a zero balance if it goes into negative as a result of trading activity.

The Balance Protection Policy is applicable to multiple accounts – in case you have a negative balance in your account and a credit balance in your second account then the credit balance will be used to offset the negative balance. The same applies across joint accounts - each joint account holder will be responsible for a debit or credit available equally.

The Balance Protection is on disposal for all retail clients.

To be sure that you’ll not go into negative balance, check here what ActivTrdes offers!

EUR/USD Surged higher despite Draghi’s attempts to talk down the euro

The most important macro event this week brought nothing new, as Mario & Co left the monetary policy unchanged as it was expected. Mr Draghi pointed out that recent and increased volatility in the forex market is source of uncertainty, with little chances for interest rate hike this year. However this event resulted very positive to the EUR/USD and the pair surpassed the 1.25 handle for first time since mid December 2014. In fact Draghi’s attempts to talk down the single currency failed as its strength now is die to the solid domestic economic and the broad US Dollar’s weakness.  

EUR/USD extended  its impressive rally that started in January 2018 and today marked daily high at 1.2537 but pulled back to currently trade at 1.2482. The short term outlook for the pair remains bullish and a close above 1.25 would open doors for testing the 1.2540 – 1.2550 region.

GBP/JPY Within uptrend channel

The broad US Dollar’ weakness has fuelled the Sterling and today continues to move steeply upwards and marks new post Brexit highs. GBP/USD is seen firmly above 1.40 and bulls are preparing to conquer the 1.44 level. Sterling’s strength mirrors the GBP/JPY pair, which is also enjoys uptrend.
Since late August 2017 the GBP/JPY pair has been developing within ascending channel with upper side formed by the highs in late October and early November. As seen on the daily chart the highs seen in late September and early October give some false signs from the uptrend channel viewpoint, but it provides other options for validation up and down to make it appropriate despite them.
Currently the pair is located in the middle of the channel and it seems that feels very comfortable over there and is not planning to abandon it soon. RSI and stochastic remains within positive territory but are staring to lose upward strength and that suggest bulls to pause and take deep breath before next upleg. So the pair might meet support around 153.50 – 153.40. Looking to the upside I expect during next sessions test of 159.90 – Brexit level and upper side of the channel.

 

Cable cracked 1.40, but consolidation is expected before next upleg

Early in the day Cable broke the 1.40 handle and even succeeded to mark daily high at 1.4026. A pullback followed but currently the price is not far from the psychological level at 1.40.

On the four hour time frame the price continues to develop above its bullish SMAs and today’s lowest level found support at the 20-day SMA. Indicators on the same chart are yet located within positive territory, but are losing upward strength. Today’s rally is impressive as GBP/USD reached June 23 in 2016, the time of Brexit decision, but more important for the continuation of the bullish trend is a close above 1.40. I think that the bulls will take a breath before tackling higher challenges, so in the short term the Cable will be seen in consolidation mode. 

USD/JPY Close to critical support after dovish BoJ

The Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting held earlier today delivered relatively dovish massage, as central bankers left unchanged the interest rates and its QQE purchase. Following the speech of Governor Kuroda the USD/JPY spiked the 111.00 level but found resistance at 111.20. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its bearish SMAs, while RSI and stochastic turned sharply to south and are showing strong bearish momentum. The pair failed to hold gains are is close to the key support at 110.50. The only interesting about this pair today will be whether will test the next support level at 110.19 (the 4-month low marked last week).