GBP/USD Higher

The US President Elect Donald Trump press conference held yesterday coudn’t confirm the expectations for stronger economic growth and planted hesitation in investors sentiment. The US dollar suffered and was set under great selling pressure.

The USD/GBP pair was seen lower before the conference and marked close to a three months low. The pair quickly recovered and in the early trading hours today posted a fresh weekly high at 1.2317. 

Technical readings are indicating strong near-term bullish note. The pair has crossed to above the 20-day SMA. RSI heads to north with has surpassed the mid lines. Stochastic is showing extreme overbought market and displaying strong bullish momentum.

Bearish picture could be seen again if the pair breaks the immediate support located at 1.2200, which would drag the pair towards 1.2150 area. 

Resistances are now placed at 1.2360 and higher at 1.2400.

GBP/USD Resumed The Bearish Note

With the beginning of the new week the GBP/USD pair resumed its bearish sentiment. Yesterday the pair broke through the key support at 1.2200 and pinned daily low at 1.2123.

During today’s early trading the pair was flirting with 1.2100 levels, which has not been visited since late October 2016. 

On the H4 chart technical indicator is showing oversold conditions. RSI at around 37%  and is displaying lack of strength. Stochastic still can not cross the 20 level, but gaining slight upward momentum.

Considering the upcoming decision of the UK’s Supreme Court to state whether the Parliament or Theresa May can trigger Article 50 and continue with the negotiations, the future for the Sterling remains cloudy. 

The key support at 1.2200 now has turned intraday resistance. Next resistances are seen at 1.2305 (the 100-day moving average) and 1.2400. Looking downwards support is located at 1.2105 (today’s low) and 1.2070 (late October’s low).

EUR/USD Remains Corrective In Long Term

With the start of the new year the EUR/USD pair collided with the unexpected. The pair marked a 14-year low at 1.0340, while at the end of the previous year rallied to 1.0650.

The weekly chart is showing that the pair is placed well below the moving averages. RSI is situated at around 36 level and is displaying slight signs of upward movement. Stochastic is bouncing from the extreme oversold area, but still has not crossed the 20 zone. The technical readings are suggesting a corrective phase within the range from the last two years.

If case of conquering the 30th December’s high at 1.0650, the pair might fight 1.0704 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of November 9th to January 3rd  run down) and set correction movement. 1.0500 are is acting as strong support and if falling below it, next important level is 1.0365. Anyway having in mind the freshly posted low, another are supposed to be around the physiological level at 1.0300.  

USD/JPY Tilted Up

The US Non-Farm Payrolls report showed weaker that expected numbers today, but nevertheless the decline in USD/JPY pair was seized, having in mind the weekly performance. Yesterday the pair marked a fresh 3-week low at 115.21 influenced mostly by the FOMC minutes released previous day. 

Currently the pair is showing signs of recovery and is trading at 116.96 and seems that is gaining momentum.

USD/JPY has crossed to above the 20-day EMA, which is now acting as support. RSI is placed around mid-lines, but displaying strong upward trend. Stochastic has recovered from the extreme overbought area and is firming the bullish trend.

The pair is very close and is quite likely to overcome the resistance at 117.00. Nest resistance is located at 118.60. Looking downwards support is seen at 115.21 (yesterday’s low) and lower at 114.73.

Dawn Light Shines Bright

The Trump factor mirrored in Gold weakness and during the last six weeks we witnessed strong bearishness. Prices were driven lower with around $200. Market conditions were within extreme oversold area.

Now the setup has changed into bullish mode in the short-term. Since late December 2016 Gold is moving up and formed bullish channel as shown on the hourly chart and prices are seen higher with around $50. Today a fresh new daily high was marked at $1185. Well, the surge of the price is due to the continuation of the of the latest bullish trend, but is also supported by the US dollar’s current weakness. And this is an important point that should be considered. The greenback is now exposed to large sell-off and Gold is not moving up without motivation.

Technical indicators are recovering from overbought territory, but still are located at north area. Both RSI and Stochastic are slightly turning to south on the hourly chart, but if we look at the H4 they are still confirming the bullish trend.

Support now is seen at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $1173 (latest decline from Presidential elections high at $1336 to December 15th low at $1122). Strong resistance is located at $1188 (December 2nd high). Should the price cross to above this level, then bullishness in longer term could be possible.

Ignoring The Angst Of Brexit

Yesterday the GBP/USD pair declined and bottomed at 1.2198, but closed higher at 1.2237. As seen on the hourly chart, the price crossed to downwards the support trend line, which suggested a bearish scenario. 

But today we witnessed an interesting recovery, mostly due to the better than expected macro data released in UK. Another push up was set by FOMC minutes later on today and the pair settled above 1.2330. Currently the pair is placed above the support trend line. 

Given the fact that the Brexit uncertainty still persists, rallies are not excluded because selling opportunities are yet to come along with 1.2500 area pending bearish orders. 

The H4 chart is displaying that the pair is situated very close to the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement of the latest daily decline and well above the 20-day SMA, which is acting as a support now (1.2275). Some bullish signs are indicated by the technical indicators as well. RSI is heading to north with current location at 60 level. Stochastic is nearing overbought conditions and is showing strong bullish momentum. 

As long as bulls are running in the short term, next target is assigned to be 1.2480, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of latest daily decline. 

It is clearly that the Sterling benefited from the good macro UK data which is somehow damaging the expectation of the British economy development ahead of Brexit. And we may conclude that the latest movements of the British Pound are remarkable having in mind the behaviour against the financial markets. 

EUR/USD Marking Lower Lows

January has proven to be a bearish month for EUR/USD. During the past 20 years the pair has been falling with 70% in the first month of the year and the average decline within this period is around 195 pips. Considering the monthly changes in the pair the last three years are showing consecutive negative performance and the worst decline was seen in January 2015.

With the start of 2017 the EUR/USD pair does not perform differently. During today’s session a fresh new low was hit at 1.0340, which is a level that has not been visited since January 3th 2003.

Technical readings are confirming the bearish trend. As seen on the H4 chart the pair crossed to downside the 20-day moving average and remains well below the 100-day and 200-day EMAs.

Indicators have recovered from oversold areas, but still are located below mid-lines. RSI is currently being around 38% and is showing lack of strength. Stochastic has retreated from the extremely oversold area, but still is displaying week bearish momentum.

Another point that cannot be dismissed is that during the last three sessions the pair is marking lower lows and lower highs, which is additionally encouraging the bears.  

Support is located at 1.0340 (today’s low) and 1.0300 (physiological level). Resistance is seen at 1.0450 (20-day EMA) and 1.0495 (100-day EMA).