EUR/GBP More likely to continue falling

Since the beginning of the week the EUR/GBP is trading lower baked up by the GBP rally and uncertain single currency. Today the EC President Jean-Claude Juncker has reinforced the tension, pointing out on an event in Spain that in the months ahead  the unity of the European Union is likely to be called into question and the upcoming Brexit talks will bring a huge mess.
EUR/GBP sharply fell in the morning but found support at 0.8720. The increasing buyers interest uplifted the pair to currently trade at 0.8758. As seen on the four hour time frame the price is developing below its bearish 20-day and 100-day SMAs and flat 200-day SMA. RSI is at 43 and has started to turn north. Stochastic is yet located within extreme overbought area but is showing good upward momentum. Nevertheless the upside is capped by the 0.8833 level – 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest bullish run and the current location of the flat 200-day SMA. Bulls has tried to conquer this level twice this year, but unsuccessfully, so in the short term I see them fail again.  

Key support is provided by the double low around 0.86875 and Fibonacci retracement level . A breach would open doors to 0.8646 (June 8 low). This scenario would be more reasonable for the pair, because except a weak single currently, the Sterling upside momentum picks up pace.
Another "Super Thursday" is coming next week with BoE’s release on its latest monetary policy and Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR), which may bring additional strength on GBP. 

USD/JPY Up on hawikish FOMC, but will bulls dare to get out of the prevailing downtrend

Since January 8th the USD/JPY pair entered into steep downtrend channel, which came in continuation of the bearish signals from early November. This week the bears are taking break and stopped to rest around 108.30 level, a significant support area. Of course having the development of the channel, a test of the lows around 108.30 – 108.00 could not be avoided. 

But today the fundamental environment comes into play with last Janet Yellen’s speech at FOMC. As it was expected the interests rates remain unchanged and Fed left open door for hikes in March. The outcome for the pair is somehow mixed, but we can not ignore that bulls moved towards 109.00 handle. Тhe agenda now is whether the bulls will dare to escape the shackles of the descending channel.

NZD/USD Shooting star and RSI divergence to define next move

Since late November 2017 the New Zealand Dollar is trying to fight against the US dollar. It’s a hard game to play. The NZD/USD pair touched its highest level since then at 0.7436, having formed a double top with the September 20 top.  Meanwhile as seen on the daily chart the New Zealand Dollar’s upwards march is hindered fundamentally by disappointing CPI figures and technically by the formed Shooting Star candlestick. Adding to this picture the RSI divergence comparing to the uptrend line staring from late December 2017.  

The pair is facing support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of latest August to November down slope at 0.7260, which in case of breaking would open doors for testing the 50% Fibo of same decline at 0.7165.   

During the past weeks we witness some signs of strength towards the upside, but yet remain difficult to catch. The immediate movement of the pair is yet confined by higher highs and lows, which do not exclude a sideways consolidation. So entering short is not a good option right now having the expectations for another bulls’ intervention.

AUD/USD The battle for 0.81 continues with busy Wednesday

Aussie lost ground during last sessions but is trying to recover. Nevertheless the battle for the 0.81 area remains in force. Today the AUD/USD pair marked daily high at 0.8113 but eased with US opening and currently is trading at 0.8084.The slide from the top took place amid the renewed rally of the greenback and the falling prices of oil and gold.

Technically speaking the short term outlook remains neutral. On the four hour time frame the price is moving above its 100-day and 200-day SMAs, while the 20-day one keeps flat around 0.8083 and the bulls fail to conquer it. RSI is located around its mid-line with lack of directional strength. Stochastic is showing bearish momentum with current location at 43. 

To add some gains the AUD/USD pair should first break the 0.8135 level in order to generate power to test the 0.8200 handle.

The upcoming Asian session will bring Australia’a December inflation figures which may push Aussie higher in case they come above expected. From the US side we’ll have President Trump’s speech, the ADP private employment report is due and then the Federal Reserve will announce its decisions. So busy Wednesday ahead and it’ll be interesting to observe the pair’s movement. 

Activtrades Enhanced Protection: Balance Protection

Negative balance protection means that your account will be brought to a zero balance if it goes into negative as a result of trading activity. In forex trading not everyone is able to tolerate losing money including experienced traders and newbies. That is why it is very important to find a broker that offers this service.

My broker, ActivTrades, is a true and proven defender of the interests of its clients and protects from negative balance. 

Your account has a trade out level, which is in force to make you sure that you’re not going to lose more money than your deposit. The Balance Protection Policy is another safeguard and it will compensate your account to a zero balance if it goes into negative as a result of trading activity.

The Balance Protection Policy is applicable to multiple accounts – in case you have a negative balance in your account and a credit balance in your second account then the credit balance will be used to offset the negative balance. The same applies across joint accounts - each joint account holder will be responsible for a debit or credit available equally.

The Balance Protection is on disposal for all retail clients.

To be sure that you’ll not go into negative balance, check here what ActivTrdes offers!

EUR/USD Surged higher despite Draghi’s attempts to talk down the euro

The most important macro event this week brought nothing new, as Mario & Co left the monetary policy unchanged as it was expected. Mr Draghi pointed out that recent and increased volatility in the forex market is source of uncertainty, with little chances for interest rate hike this year. However this event resulted very positive to the EUR/USD and the pair surpassed the 1.25 handle for first time since mid December 2014. In fact Draghi’s attempts to talk down the single currency failed as its strength now is die to the solid domestic economic and the broad US Dollar’s weakness.  

EUR/USD extended  its impressive rally that started in January 2018 and today marked daily high at 1.2537 but pulled back to currently trade at 1.2482. The short term outlook for the pair remains bullish and a close above 1.25 would open doors for testing the 1.2540 – 1.2550 region.

GBP/JPY Within uptrend channel

The broad US Dollar’ weakness has fuelled the Sterling and today continues to move steeply upwards and marks new post Brexit highs. GBP/USD is seen firmly above 1.40 and bulls are preparing to conquer the 1.44 level. Sterling’s strength mirrors the GBP/JPY pair, which is also enjoys uptrend.
Since late August 2017 the GBP/JPY pair has been developing within ascending channel with upper side formed by the highs in late October and early November. As seen on the daily chart the highs seen in late September and early October give some false signs from the uptrend channel viewpoint, but it provides other options for validation up and down to make it appropriate despite them.
Currently the pair is located in the middle of the channel and it seems that feels very comfortable over there and is not planning to abandon it soon. RSI and stochastic remains within positive territory but are staring to lose upward strength and that suggest bulls to pause and take deep breath before next upleg. So the pair might meet support around 153.50 – 153.40. Looking to the upside I expect during next sessions test of 159.90 – Brexit level and upper side of the channel.