USD/CAD Could surge higher

The grennback’s strength is vanishing and today is down against its major rivals. Meanwhile it has still outperformed the Canadian dollar. The USD/CAD pair is moving higher this week and as seen on the four hour time frame tested the resistance provided by the 50% Fibonacci retracement of latest bullish run at 1.2485. The price is now developing between turning to the upside 20-day SMA and yet bearish 100-day and 200-day SMAs. Stochastic is located within extreme overbought area, but yet is aiming north. RSI is seen slightly above its mid-line and has lost directional strength. 

Adding to this picture the failure of Loonie to track the surging oil prices, the conclusion comes to unsustainable belief on oil’s further rally. And in this case the USD/CAD pair is quite undecided and hesitant. 

Technically speaking the pair should break to above the 1.2050 – 1.2515 resistance area in order to bring back bulls in the game.

  

EUR/USD Bears are aiming 1.1875

EUR/USD dropped today and marked a two week low at 1.1915, a level that has not been visited since late December and down with 0.30% for the day.

The greenback’s rally is shuffling now. The strength given by Fed's speakers yesterday do not weight today as softer than expected macro data put an halt on US dollar’s demand.

EUR/USD was pressured by the initial support provided by th 50% Fibonacci retracement of last week’s bullish run at 1.1903. As seen on the four hour time frame the pair bounced of this support and is currently trading at 1.1933. However on the same chart the 20-day SMA has turned sharply to south and the price is developing well below it. RSI and stochastic are located within extreme oversold territories and both have lost directional strength.  

Additional declines are expected toward the 61.8% retracement of same rally (1.1875) in case the pair returns back to 50% Fibo, coinciding with the 100-day SMA .

GOLD Correction to reinforce bulls

Spot Gold started the new week in smooth mood, having quite tight daily range. The US dollar surprised markets with strength after poor US jobs data, released last Friday that was not affected by the expected rate hikes approaching this year.

As seen on the four hour time frame, the XAU/USD pair is developing well above its bullish moving averages. RSI and stochastic got out of their extreme overbought areas and had lost directional strength, but yet remain on higher levels. Given all above it seems that this corrective phase is going to call back the bulls. The precious metals stands above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest upleg (at $1305) and the initial support at $1313 (Friday’s low) is untouched by the bears. A deeper correction  might follow only in case of testing the 38.2% of same Fibo at $1292, but not lower. 

USD/CAD dropped to fresh multi-month lows

USD/CAD plummeted today and dropped to lowest level since late September 2017. The pair was set on huge selling pressure, with over 150 pips down for the day, after the disappointing NFP data form US, while in Canada the unemployment rate dropped to 5.7%.

Technically speaking, the short term outlook for the pair remain neutral to bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is moving well below its bearish moving averages. RSI and stochastic are located within extreme oversold areas, with the first starting to retreat and the second has lost directional strength. As seen on the same chart, after marking the multi months low at 1.2351 the pair found support at the 61.8% Fibo of latest September to November bullish run.This is very significant level and in case of breaking it to below, the pair will be poised to extend its decline towards the psychological 1.2300 handle. During the upcoming sessions we may expect a corrective phase, before USD/CAD takes new direction. 

  

Gold is rising

After the corrective slide yesterday, Gold is again up today and gains traction above $1318. The US dollar was set on pressure and is trading lower for second time during last three sessions despite the upbeat employment figures. Market players stayed indifferent on yesterday’s FOMC meeting minutes, for as much as March 2018 rate hike odds have hovered around 70% for the last month. Against this background the demand for the precious metal is rising.

Technically speaking the short term outlook remains bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is moving above all its moving averages,that are keeping north direction. RSI and stochastic are showing strong bullish momentum, both above their mid-lines. 

The first challenge for XAU/USD is seen at $1321(January 2nd’s high) and next one is the $1334 level, which will open doors for testing the September 5 top at $1344. On the flip slide caution comes with the psychological $1300 mark. 

GBP/USD found support at 23.6% Fibo

The GBP/USD pair retreated from the three and a half month high at 1.3612, but found support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest November to January bullish run and currently is trading at 1.3525. Although the pair bounced form the daily low at 1.3491, remains down with 0.53% for the day. 

On the four hour time frame the price has crossed to below its 20-day SMA, which slowed down its bullish momentum, while the 100-day SMA is staying flat and is providing strong support at 1.34 handle. RSI is located around its mid-line and has started to lose directional strength. Stochastic and momentum and showing strong bearish slopes, but still hold above their mid-lines, which means that the buyers are not indicating interest.  

Nevertheless to switch into bullish mode again, the pair should first return to the daily high and then to conquer next resistance level at 1.3655. 

AUD/USD Neutral to bullish ahead of US macro data

During the early European session the AUD/USD pair retreated from the two and a half month high to test the 0.78 level. The corrective slide coundn’t last long and currently the pair is trading at 0.7837 with Australian dollar backed up by the confidence in the rising equities and the positive mood of commodities,with gold and silver aiming back to their recent tops.
Technically speaking the short term outlook for the pair remains neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is moving above all its moving averages, keeping course towards north. Stochastic has retreated from its mid-line and is showing strong bullish momentum. RSI is located within extreme overbought area, but is starting to lose directional strength.
Yesterday’s high at 0.7845 comes as first resistance and is case of successful taking, next target for the bulls is seen at 0.7890-0.7900. On the flip side we must be watchful around the psychological 0.7800 handle.
The upcoming US session is offering the ISM Manufacturing PMI figures for December and the most wanted FOMC minutes, having both macro events decisive for the AUD/USD pair.