EUR/USD Hovering around 1.1960 until stronger catalyst appears

EUR/USD reached today fresh weekly low and dropped to 1.1925 but currently is back around 1.1960 area, mostly because the greenback’s demand is fading away. The macroeconomic calendar has not much to offer today with no news from Europe and from the other coast insignificant release on NFIB Business optimism index for August. 

Tomorrow promises to be more intriguing, having German inflation and US PPI.

Technically speaking EUR/USD landed lower, but the question is whether this is it temporary. On the four hour time-frame the price is moving well below its 20-day SMA, which has turned to north, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are staying flat. RSI and stochastic had recovered from the negative area, but yet remain below their mid- lines. Also RSI has lost directional strength and stochastic is displaying strong bullish momentum.  

The risk to the downside could be avoided only if the pair holds firmly above 1.1910. 

Looking to the upside, first resistance is seen at 1.2030 and bulls are not seen back in game until reaching again this level. 

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USD/JPY Reached fresh 2017 low

During the early US session the USD/JPY marked fresh 2017 low at 108.04, having posted 0.6% losses for the day with current market price 108.55. The move to the downside is supported by the greenback’s weakness due to the bad US employment results along with ECB's announcement and adding concerns about Hurricane Harvey. 

The pair bounced from the daily low mostly due to the US Treasury yields that plunged to levels below November's lows. 

On the four-hour time frame the price is developing well below its bearish SMAs, while technical indicators keep moving to the downside. 

Despite of the 50 pips recovery, the risk remains to the downside. First support is seen at 108.10 and in case of increased selling interest the pair will be dragged lower to 107.70-30 area. 

EUR/USD Eased around 1.20 after dovish Draghi

The EUR/USD pair moved higher today as Draghi’s press conference was underway and marked eight session high at 1.2050, but later retreatred lower and found ground around 1.2000 handle due to the result of the ECB's monetary policy latest decision. As it was expected the rate remains unchanged at zero level while QE is on mute mode until December 2017, or longer probably. US employment numbers released today supported the euro bulls showing higher figures. 

On the four-hour time frame the price is developing above its bullish SMAs. Meanwhile technical indicators are losing upward strength. Both RSI and stochastic are still located withing extreme overbought area, but slightly are turning to south, which is hinting for a slight downward correction.

However the euro bulls should conquer 1.2030 level to be able to run higher.

GBP/USD Retreated from a month high

Since yesterday the GBP/USD pair keep advancing and today nailed fresh one-month high at 1.3081, a level that has not been visited since August 4th. After retreating later to lower level with current market price 1.3043, the pair succeded to hold gains at the end of the session amid the lack of macro news from UK.  

On the four-hour time frame the pair is advancing beyond its bullish 20-day SMA, which has crossed to above the 200-day EMA. Stochastic has retreated from the overbought territory, but yet maintains extreme values, while RSI is hovering around 70 and has lost directional strength. 

To confirm certain return of the bulls, the pair must fight the key resistance located at 1.3080 with scope to test next 1.3150.

AUD/USD Found support at 61.8% Fibo

The AUD/USD pair once again failed to hold the psychological 0.8000 figure and reached session lows today around the 0.7970-65 region. This move was quite in line with the release of Q2 GDP growth numbers, which failed to be positive. 

However the decline was limited by a key support, provided by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of latest up leg at 0.7965.

On the four hour time frame the price sustain above the bullish 20-day SMA, while the 200-day SMA is staying flat around 0.7935 and is acting as a second support. Indicators on the same chart are showing mixed signs. RSI is located around its mid-line but has turned to north and stochastic is displaying strong bearish momentum. 

Both currencies have lost their charm today with the US dollar less tempting. Bulls are about to return only above 0.8000 with next target set on 0.8065. 

Nassim Taleb Quotes Part II

I continue with the second part of my Nassim Taleb favorite quotes and I hope to excite and inspire you:

“To bankrupt a fool, give him information.”

“They think that intelligence is about noticing things are relevant (detecting patterns); in a complex world, intelligence consists in ignoring things that are irrelevant (avoiding false patterns)” 

“If you hear a "prominent" economist using the word 'equilibrium,' or 'normal distribution,' do not argue with him; just ignore him, or try to put a rat down his shirt.” 

“Difficulty is what wakes up the genius” 

“The curious mind embraces science; the gifted and sensitive, the arts; the practical, business; the leftover becomes an economist” 

“Never ask anyone for their opinion, forecast, or recommendation. Just ask them what they have—or don’t have—in their portfolio.”

“We favor the visible, the embedded, the personal, the narrated, and the tangible; we scorn the abstract.” 

“A mistake is not something to be determined after the fact, but in light of the information available until that point” 

“More data—such as paying attention to the eye colors of the people around when crossing the street—can make you miss the big truck.”