USD/JPY Broke to below the ascendant channel

During the early session today the USD/JPY pair dropped to 113.31 and later had retreated to 113.54. the greenback is still suffering due to the Trump Jr’s affairs and ahead of Fed's head Yellen testimony.  

Technically speaking the pair broke to below the ascendant channel and is currently developing below the 20-day SMA. 

The four-hour time frame is showing bearish signs. RSI is nearing oversold area and is slightly below its mid-line. Stochastic is displaying strong bearish momentum and is located within negative territory. Nevertheless both indicators had lost directional strength. 

To confirm the bearish continuation the pair should fight the key support at 112.85. 

EUR/USD Skyrocketed to a fresh new yearly high

I thought that EUR/USD would be trading in limited range recent days, due to the lack of major macro releases recent days. In fact the week afead is offering plenty of data that will stir the markets. But surprisingly today the EUR/USD pair skyrocketed and marked a fresh new yearly high at 1.1479.

The greenback suffered very strongly after Trump Jr. published an e-mail exchange with the British publicist Rob Goldstone, who in fact had offered to set up the meeting with the Russian government meaning to incriminate Hillary Clinton and her dealings with Russia. This huge scandal also reflected over Wall Street and stocks went down. 

Technically speaking the price is likely to continue its bullish run and as seen on the four-hour time frame it’s advancing above the recent range. 

Meanwhile the price has crossed to above the 20-day SMA, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are steaming to north. RSI and stochastic are showing strong bullish momentum and are nearing extreme overbought territory. 

Strong resistance is seen at 1.1494 (October’s 2015 high) and first support is located at 1.1380, next at 1.1340.

USD/JPY above 114.00

Since mid-June the USD/JPY pair broke the bearish trend line and is seen marching higher. Today the pair crossed to above the key level at 114.00 and marked two-month high at 114.17. 

The stronger NFP numbers today supported the greenback that was also supported by the rising yields.  

On the four-hour frame the 100-day SMA has crossed to above the 200-day SMA, while the 20-day SMA is showing strong bullish trend with all SMAs below the price development. RSI is aiming to positive territory and stochastic is displaying strong bullish momentum but has lost directional strength. Both indicators are quite hesitant to confirm further rally.

The pair recently is marking higher highs and higher lows and the outlook would turn into bearish only is breaking this structure.

GBP/USD At 23.6% Fibo

From the beginning of the week the GBP/USD pair keeps advancing and and in the early session today reached 1.2985. The pair couldn’t hold on this level and retreated to currently trade at 1.2930.
The demand for the greenback faded away mostly due to the absence of any hawkish surprise, shown by FOMC minutes. On the other hand, there no macro releases in UK today and most important that would stir the market remains the anticipation of NFP on Friday.
On the four-hour time frame the price has crossed to above the bearish 20-day SMA and is located very close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest rally. RSI has retreated from the overbought area and is showing strong bearish momentum, but yet is holding around it mid-lines. Stochastic is moving to the opposite and is heading north although has lost directional strength.  
To confirm the bullish trend, bulls must conquer first 1.2960 mark and next 1.2985 (today’s high). Until then the outlook remains neutral to bullish.

USD/JPY Marked fresh 2-month high

The USD/JPY pair pushed higher today and marked a fresh new two-month peak at 113.68. Ahead of the Wall Street opening the pair retreated slightly to currently trade at 113.19 as FOMC minutes are about to be released. Meanwhile earlier today the Japanese services PMI showed better than expected numbers, which supported the Japanese Yen. 

On the four-hour time frame the price is developing above the moving averages. RSI has retreated from overbought area and currently is located slightly above it’s mid-line. Stochastic is showing strong bearish momentum but is also placed above it’s mid-line. 

Overall indicators are rather marking upward exhaustion and are reflecting the ongoing consolidation.  

GBP/USD turned to downside

Last week the GBP/USD was seen uptrending and marked a monthly high at 1.3030. But start of the new week shifted the mood and the pair dropped to 1.2930. The Pound is hardly influenced by the bad macro figures as the Markit manufacturing PMI for June showed less than expected data. Beside this the expectations for BOE’s upcoming rate hike are decreasing, but it will become more clear this Tuesday when inflation report is due along with the construction PMI for June.

Technically speaking the four-hour time frame is showing some bearishness. The price has crossed to below the 20-day SMA, while the 200-day SMA is staying flat and is acting as dynamic support.RSI has sharply turned to south and stochastic is located within extreme oversold territory and is displaying strong bearish momentum.

Having in mind that last week the bulls coundn’t again conquer the psychological 1.30 mark, the short-term the sentiment remains bearish.

AUD/NZD meets resistance at 23.6% Fibo

The hawkish RBNZ stance strengthened the New Zealand dollar along with the good economic figures and on this basis the AUD/NZD is seen in downtrend since the middle of March. 

Last week the pair fell to 1.0385, a level that has not been visited since early February.

On the four-hour time frame the 200-day SMA is showing strong bearishness, while the 20-day SMA has turned to north. RSI is located around its mid-line, but has lost directional strength. Stochastic is displaying bearish signs but however now is navigating slightly below its mid-lines.

Strong resistance is seen at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest March to June slope to downwards, currently located at 1.0525. In case of breaking it to above, the pair might visit higher levels.

Looking to downwards, key support is the 1.0375 area (last week’s lows). In case bears are tempted to test it, the pair most like will drop to parity.