AUD/USD Consolidation continues

The Australian dollar was trading slightly elevated against the US dollar in early hours today following the Q4 report release, that showed better than expected numbers. The pair marked daily high at 0.7694, but shortly afterwards retreated to lower levels and the current market price is 0.7665. 

Anyway the pair continues to stay within the well know tight range, failing to move up. The upward potential is limited by the bearish 20-day SMA, currently being around 0.7680 area. On the four-hours time frame RSI is below the mid-lines and is turning to south, while stochastic is located within oversold are and is loosing directional strength. Immediate support is seen at 0.7660 and in case of closing below it, bears most likely will try to test next one at 0.7600. Looking to the upside first resistance is placed at 0.7720 (last week highs) and higher at 0.7740. 

Gold is shining brightly

Since the end of last year Gold is up with more than 11%. The precious metal bottomed at $1122 in mid December, but today posted a fresh daily high at $1263.90, which is the highest level for the past three and a half months. Bulls conquered the resistance at $1261, where now is located the 200-day SMA, but the price slightly retreated later to currently trade at $1251. 

Technical readings on the daily chart confirm the uptrend. The 20-day SMA is showing strong bullishness. RSI and stochastic are indicating overbought conditions and are keeping directional strength. But we must pay attention to the development within the positive area, as no firm bearish signals are seen around. Even well established within the positive territory, both RSI and stochastic have turned slightly to south.

Gold is definitely influenced by Trump’s policy, particularly his tax reform intentions. And honestly this is not positive for the precious metal. Tomorrow’s speech is long awaited and let’s hope that will enlighten markets with some definite measures.

However during the last three and a half months gold is steadily moving up and I’d rather bet that the sentiment will stay positive. 

GBP/USD Risk remains towards the downside

The GBP/USD started the week weaker and early this morning hit low at 1.2381, as the pair was undermined by the reports that Scotland may call a second independence referendum as early as next month. The pair bounced off the low and currently is trading slightly above 1.2400 handle. 

As seen on the four hours time frame the price has crossed to below the bearish 20-day SMA. RSI is standing at around 38 and has lost directional strength. The stochastic is showing strong oversold conditions and is displaying bearish momentum. Technical readings confirm that the risk remains towards the downside. The macro agenda for today is not offering much from UK side, but on the other shore we have data on Pending Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders and the FOMC member Kaplan speech. So Sterling might be seen stronger only if US data disappoints. 

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GBP/USD Correction Underway

The Sterling moved sharply higher against the US dollar on Thursday, succeeded to move out of the narrow range in which varied lately and closed at highest levels for the last three weeks. 

The GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.2550, slightly above the bullish 20-day SMA and very close to the upper side of latest range. The pair is seen gravitating around this level since yesterday and seems that bull are not fueled enough to occupy higher areas. The four-hour time frame is showing that both RSI and Stochastic are placed within the overbought area, but are starting to turn to south. Should the pair overcome the resistance at 1.2576, another positive outcome will be pace along with new daily highs above 1.2600 level. On the other hand, if retreats back to 1.2500 region, bearish correction is underway, given also the fact that latest rally is due to the broad US dollars weakness, rather than Sterling's strength.

EUR/USD higher

Since the beginning of the week the EUR/USD has been sliding to downwards and in the early European session today hit a six week low at 1.0495. Finally we witnessed some revival right after the FOMC minutes release. As it was expected the US central bank voted to keep rates unchanged, although many FED officials see a rate hike „fairly soon” if the economy remains on track.

Following the FOMC minutes release the EUR/USD pair surged towards previous highs and the current market price is 1.0572. 

The four-hour chart is showing that the price is now flirting with 23.6 % Fibonacci retracement of latest decline and where now the bearish 20-day SMA is located. RSI and Stochastic have recovered from oversold region and have turned to north, but yet are below the mid-lines. The psychological mark at 1.0600 remains key resistance and in case bulls succeed to advance though it, next target is seen at 1.0620 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of same decline). Looking to downwards first support is placed at 1.0520 (February 15th low) and lower at 1.0495 (the daily low).

AUD/USD stuck between 0.76-0.77

The release of the RBA Minutes showed that the low rates will be maintained a while longer. The bad figures in Q3 GDP,  lower than expected consumption growth and the inflation expectations raised doubts over the appreciation of the national currency that might cause difficulties to economic transition. Amid those concerns the AUD/USD pair today is holding within the well know tight range between 0.76 – 0.77. Looking at the four-hour time frame, the price is trying to move above the 20-day SMA, which has turned into bearish mode. Meanwhile the 100-day SMA is acting as a dynamic support. Technical indicators have recovers from oversold readings. RSI is slightly above mid-lines, but is loosing strength and Stochastic is showing strong bullish momentum. So far there is nothing sure to confirm bullishness. The key resistance at 0.77 is being long term lived and as long as holding above 0.76, the down slide remains unlikely.