EUR/AUD Developing wedge formation

With the beginning of February the EUR/AUD pair started an amazing bullish run, which peaked at 1.5815 in the middle of the month. And since then it seems than bulls decided to rest a bit deeply believing that they had accomplished the intended goals. This can be viewed as consolidation but on the four hour time frame it looks like falling wedge formation is developing. On the same chart the 20-day SMA has started to turn south accompanied by bearish stochastic and flat RSI, both last nearing oversold territories. We should take into consideration the bearish bias before assuming that the pair will act in accordance with the formation. We may witness bullish continuation only of the price break off upper line of the wedge which comes at 1.5730. On the other hand the force awakens for bears below 1.5606.

EUR/USD Hesistant at support area 1.2205–1.2170

The post-Powell sentiment weight down the single currency, which anyway suffered Tuesday after weak German inflation numbers. The EUR/USD continues to fall today, breaking though the key support line at 1.2205 (the February low) and now is pressuring the 32.8% Fibonacci retracement of latest October to February  bullish run at 1.2170.
On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its moving averages. Since yesterday the 20-day SMA has turned to downwards, while the 100-day and 200-day SMA had slowed around 1.23 and are providing dynamic resistance. RSI is acting quite undecided around its 30 level and stochastic is located within extreme negative territory with no sighs for recovery.  
The hesitation of both indication can bring the pair hovering around the support area 1.2205 – 1.2170. But if bears have no reason to feel comfortable in this zone, may try to move to the south by testing the January’s low at 1.2164 which if broken will provide next target at 1.2100.

 

GBP/USD Fighting the 1.3900 area

“Market volatility won’t stop more rate hikes” said the new Fed chair Powell in his first testimonial statement. Of course this sentence boosted the greenback and further on was  concreted by the upbeat US consumer confidence data. On the other hand the Sterling is suffering and came under huge selling pressure on the latest episode of Brexit drama and significant differences on the transition deal.

Amid these fundamentals the GBP/USD dropped to 1.3857 but succeeded to regain the 1.3900 handle with current market price around the 23.6%. Fibonacci retracement of the February bearish run at 1.3914.

Technically speaking the short term outlook for the Cable remains neutral to bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below the flat 20-day SMA, coinciding with the 38.2% of same Fibo at 1.3960. RSI is quite undecided and is staying flat around 43. Stochastic is showing strong bearish momentum and has entered into extreme negative area. 

According to above readings the bulls will remain behind the curtains until fighting back first the 1.3900 level and then 1.3960. The downside is currently supported initially by 1.3890 and lower at 1.3850.

EUR/JPY Consolidating around 200-day EMA

With the start of the new week EUR/JPY is correcting from the 5-month low, posted  last Friday at 130.92. During the day the pair is up with 0.18%, having marked daily high at 131.73 and low at 131.06. However the today’s recovery if far from the point where the uptrend was broken namely at the 134.00 level and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2014 to 2016 bearish run. As seen on the daily chart RSI and stochastic bounced from their extreme oversold territories and are showing some upward momentum but yet remain within negative area. Currently the price has settled around the flat 200-day EMA, which last week acted as major support and now bulls are dedicated to fight. But the bulls should aim higher, at least 135.10, in order to revive the uptrend. The current stabilisation around the 200-day EMA and slow indicators are confirming some consolidation. On the other hand the Japanese Yen is quite vulnerable  and the bearish sentiment might lead the pair to downwards. The daily low is providing first support, which if broken, doors will be opened for testing the 50% of above mentioned Fibo at 129.50.

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USD/CAD Breaks above 1.27

Since the beginning of the week USD/CAD is gaining upside strength and today the pair advanced much farther to mark new fresh 2018 high at 1.2757. The hawking FOMC minutes yesterday boosted the greenback while the Canadian neighbour suffered from worst than expected retails sales figures.

On the four hour time frame the price is developing well above its bullish 20-day and 100-day SMAs and currently is trading at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of  the 2017 bearish run.
RSI is consolidating around its 70, while stochastic warns us to be cautious because has retreated from its extreme overbought readings and and is showing strong bearish momentum although is located around its 80.
To resume the uptrend for a longer term bulls should make a decisive break through the 50% of same Fibo at 1.2930. Until then the downside will be protected initially by the 23.6% Fibo at 1.2470 followed by the yearly low at 1.2240.

GBP/USD On a rollercoaster

During the last month Cable is swinging back and forth mostly influenced by the greenback’s volatility.  Last week  GBP/USD was seen higher but bulls reacted to the served fundamental with retracement and since then the pair entered into bearish channel, clearly seen on the four hour time frame. During the past hours Sterling gained strength and again was tempted by the psychological  1.40 level following the neutral FOMC minutes that switched off greenback’s strength. On the same chart RSI and stochastic resumed direction towards south are both are close to extreme oversold conditions. The 20-day SMA is showing stong bearish momentum and is developing in parallel with the above mentioned channel. It will be interesting to observe how the pair will react to the vicinity of 1.3880, a support area provided by the downside of the channel. On the other hand tomorrow the UK GBP numbers are due and this could bring back bulls in the game.  

EUR/GBP Uplifted on mixed UK jobs data

EUR/GBP dropped sharply yesterday but found support few pips above the key level 0.8800, also 50 %  Fibonacci retracemet of latest January to February bullish run. Mixed UK jobs data today triggered initial weakness of the Sterling and the pair bounced to reach daily high at 0.8855.  

The UK's unemployment rate unexpectedly rose (4.4% from 4.3%) during the three-months in 2017 , despite the jobless claims for January dropped. With PM May on the wires and BoE’s inflation ahead, the Sterling is set on huge pressure.
Currently the pair is trading at 0.8843 and as seen on the four hour time frame is going to cross to above its bearish 20-day SMA. Stochastic and RSI retreated from there oversold readings and both are showing strong bullish momentum.  

The recovery from the last hours can not confirm resumption of the short term bullish outlook  as yet EUR/GBP faces difficulties around 0.8855. In case the pair conquer this barrier, next challenge will be 0.8880 and finally the psychological 0.89 handle.  The downside is protected by the 50% Fibo at 0.8800 and bears are strictly guarded while staying above that level.