EUR/USD Broke the bearish „head-and-shoulders” pattern and the trend line from April

During the past few weeks the EUR/USD pair has been stuck within tight range, but finally dared to leave it. The pair has formed a „head and shoulder pattern” and last week broke the „neckline”, but at the same time moved below the upward trend line, that had started from April. 

Indicators on the daily chart confirm that the downward bias will remain decisively intact. The price has crossed to below the 20-day SMA while RSI and stochastic had turned to north, but remain within their extreme oversold territories.

The pair has bottomed last week at 1.1722, which is very close to the support line at 1.1662 (the August low). Thus the pair is vulnerable to extend its decline towards 1.1460 (a resistance turned to support now). To turn bullish the pair will need to advance above 1.1880 (former support and new resistance). But as long as the pair is under this level, the bearish outlook remain intact. 

AUD/USD Rejected the major support at 0.7810

During the early European session the Aussie marked fresh two months low at 0.7799, but the major support at 0.7810 was rejected and currently the pair is trading at 0.7854. The last movement seems to be corrective, as the short term indications are showing bullish bias. On the four hour time frame indicators retreated from their extreme oversold conditions, but yet remain below mid-lines. Stochastic is displaying strong bullish momentum while RSI has lost directional strength. And furthermore the 20-day SMA is keeping its sharp downward slope. Further gains will come for sure in case the bulls succeed to conquer the first resistance at 0.7880.  

USD/JPY Eased around 112.45 ahead of major macro data from Japan

The USD/JPY pair turned to downwards today after hovering for a while around 113.00 yesterday. Currently the pair is trading at 112.44. not far from the daily low, marked at 112. 30 and losing 0.35% on the day. 

On the four hour time frame the price is moving above its 20-day SMA, which is heading north. Stochastic is showing strong bearish momentum and is currently located around its mid-line. RSI is also seen at its mid-line, but has lost directional strength. 

So given the above the pair is vulnerable to extend its downward slope, but meanwhile is hinting for a bearish correction. 

In the upcoming session major macroeconomic data will be released from Japan – CPI and the unemployment rate and it will be intersecting to observe the pair’s development tomorrow.

GBP/USD Stuck around 50% Fibo

The GBP/USD pair accelerated its downward trajectory and today fell to lowest level for the last two weeks, led by the stronger US dollar after the Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech last night. 

The pair found support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of it latest September up leg and now is trading at the 50% of same bullish run at 1.3340. 

On the four hour time frame the price is moving below its 20-day SMA, which is gaining downward momentum. RSI and stochastic had slightly recovered from their extreme oversold territories but yet remain well below their mid-lines with lack of directional strength.

The pair is facing strong resistance at 1.3460 (38.2% of above mentioned Fibonacci retracement) and in case of breaking it, bulls will meet next one at 1.35 handle. 

But from the current levels GBP/USD might test again the immediate support at 1.3340 (61.8% Fibo) and having a poor macroeconomic calender along with greenback’s strength, we might expect a breakout towards the 1.3320 – 1.3300 area.

EUR/USD The bearish momentum remains strong

EUR/USD is extending its downward movement after breaking yesterday below the 1.18 handle. The  pair marked over a month low with current market price 1.1738 and is nearing the 1.17 area, as there are no major releases from the euro area and yet the US dollar is keeping its upward strength after Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech.   
From technical view point, the pair confirmed the bearish downfall. On the four hour time frame the price is moving well below its moving averages with 20-day SMA keeping strong bearish slope and the 100-day and 200-day are staying flat. Both RSI and stochastic are located within extreme oversold territory.
The pair reached daily low today at 1.1730 and despite the slight correction, the bearish momentum remains strong. From the current level, EUR/USD is meeting immediate support at 1.1720 and in case of breaking it, the pair will be poised to extend its decline towards 1.1700 – 1.1690.
All eyes now on the key release of US durable goods data later on today with expectation for better figures for August which respectively would support the US dollar bulls. 

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USD/JPY Tested the 61.8% Fibo

During the early European session the USD/JPY pair tested the critical resistance at 111.76 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 114.50 to 107.35 drop)  and marched higher to mark fresh high at 111.89. However the pair couldn’t find enough strength to hold around this level and retreated lower to currently trade at 111.50. On the four hour time frame the price is moving above its moving averages. RSI is located slightly above its mid-line and is losing directional strength, while stochastic is displaying strong bearish momentum. Bulls rally is not yet endangered unless the pair closes below 110.90 (50% Fibonacci retracement of same July to September decline). All eyes on FOMC tomorrow which will set more clear direction anyway. 

EUR/USD A bit up after the German ZEW survey

The German ZEW survey showed more than expected improvement in the economic sentiment, which is supporting today the single currency. EUR/USD is seen higher today and reached 1.2005 before retreating to 1.1987, the current market price. On the four hour time frame the price is moving above its moving averages with the 20-day SMA turning to upwards and is crossing with the 100-day SMA at 1.1940. RSI and stochastic had turned to north but yet are not displaying enough strength to see bulls back in the game.  The pair should conquer the resistance at 1.2030 in order to advance higher and to confirm the bullish outlook.  No meaningful macro data will be released till the end of the day and FOMC meeting remains the key market driver, so narrow ranges will prevail until Wednesday.

GBP/USD Lower

The GBP/USD pair retreated from Friday’s high after Carney’s speech at the IMF and lost more than 200 pips today. The reversal technically is reasonable after the double top pattern at 1.3617, clearly seen on the four hour time frame. RSI and stochastic are moving away from the extreme overbought territory,where entered during the BoE rally, but yet remain above their mid-lines. Meanwhile the 20-day SMA is keeping its bullish slope, but the price is nearing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of its latest upleg, which is acting as immediate support around 1.3420. 

From fundamental point of view, the agenda has nothing to offer from UK and now FOMC comes on sight. But having in mind that Fed’s rate hike is old  news, markets more likely will be attracted by the extravagance of BoE. 

AUD/USD Bearish intraday outlook

During the Asian session the AUD/USD pair was trading around Friday’s high at 0.8030, but later in the day failed to motivate the market participants and dropped below the 0.8000 mark to currently trade at 0.7991, down with 0.15%. RBA and FOMC come in sight this week, so we may expect some interesting moves in the pair. But in short term the outlook remain bearish, according to the indicators on the four hour time frame. The price has crossed to below its bearish 20-day SMA, while the 200-day is staying flat around 0.7940 and as the time of writing is nearing the bullish 100-day SMA around 0.7990. Stochastic has retreated from the extreme overbought territory and is displaying strong bearish momentum. RSI is also aiming south and is slightly below its mid line. First support is seen at 0.7970 (last week’s low) and in case of breaking it, the pair is poised to decline further towards 0.7945.

EUR/USD Nears 1.20 on poor US retails sales

The single currency has recovered and gains momentum for second session, well supported by the stronger pound that weighed on the US dollar, further affected by the US Retail Sales figures for August, down with 0.2% from a month earlier.
The EUR/USD pair keeps advancing today and reached daily high at 1.1985, which is the current market price. On the four-hour time frame the price is moving above its moving averages with 20-day and 100-day crossing at 1.1920 area and are providing good support, below which bears could be seen back in the game. RSI and stochastic are displaying strong bullish momentum and both are aiming the overbought territory.  
The short-term outlook bullish, especially if the pair accelerate and hold above the 1.1990 area then next target will be 1.1230.