EUR/USD

On Tuesday session EUR/USD tried to push higher, topped at $1.1111, but closed lower at $1.1064.
Short-term expectations seem to be neutral. But strong resistance is seen at $1.12 (200-day EMA) and as long as the pair is staying below it, a further decline towards support levels at $1.09 and $1.07 will most likely occur.
On the other hand if observe the weekly development, it is clearly seen an upward movement from the open price at $1.1010 towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $1.1167 and even to the more important level at $1.1223 (61.80%).  We should keep in mind that the macro agenda for tomorrow offers CPI data release and the pair might head to the topside.
Anyway tomorrow’s closing price will be fuelled by additional volatility due to the month/Q2 end match. 

USD/JPY omitted the Brexit vibe

While the Brexit aftershock still choke the markets, the USD/JPY pair omitted this vibe and performed quite well since the beginning of the week. Yet this short-term rally can not clearly define whether the daily uptrend is going to continue further on or a broader retracement is about to develop.
During today’s session the pair for a while meandered gently near the support line located at ¥101.42, but refused to dive deeper. This level could push the pair to test lower support values, but the focus was set above the ¥102 mark.
The intraday high was booked at ¥102.84, very close to the key resistance at ¥102.94. This level should be considered as a significant trendline, as until the beginning of June it acted as a strong support. As long as the pair is located below, the trend is still bearish.

     Chart USD/JPY H4

GBP/USD nailed new record low

During the last 12 months the GBP/USD plummeted with 16.20%. In June 2015 the pair fascinated the market participants reaching $1.57 and booked its highest level for this chapter. On Friday the sterling plunged to $1.34 seeing the shocking “leave” vote.
Albeit rather slowly, it was considered that this drift of the circumstances is already digested and new panic attack obsessed the market.
Today GBP/USD for shortly tested the $1.32 level, followed a breakthrough of $1.3226, Friday’s low and a fresh new low since September 1985 was pinned at $1.3119.
Technically speaking, as long as the pair is staying under $1.40, bears are mastering the trend.

    Chart GBP/USD H4

USD/JPY below ¥100

Brexit knocked down the USD/JPY pair. Initially, during the early trading hours, when the market participants still digested the UK electoral vote, the pair soared to ¥106.81. But shortly afterwards the pair collapsed to ¥98.77, which is its lowest level since November 2013. For the past week the pair notably dropped with around 25% and moved below ¥100 mark.
Until the price is staying within the bearish channel (drawn from the August high to the November high) is hard to say whether bulls will appear soon.
Short-term resistance is seen at ¥106.47, which coincides with the May opening range bottom. The Friday’s low, marked at ¥98.77 should be considered as support. Next support level is located at ¥94.75, the 61,8 % Fibo.

Silver boosted on Brexit

The Brexit vote boosted XAG/USD and silver pinned fresh new high at $18.29, which is the highest level since January 23th. On Friday XAG/USD was trading around  $17.75, marking an intraday high at $18.29 and bottom at $17.06.
In the early trading hours we witnessed a correction at the level of the 20-day SMA, but the pair coundn’t near the support at $17.15. The intraday trend continued in stong bullish sentiment, confirmed by the MACD and the 20, 50 and 200 SMA, which are heading upwards.
XAG/USD closed at $17.707 an bulls are likely to test the key resistances located respectively at $17.84, $17.99 and $18.17. Strong support is located at $16.83 (200-day SMA). 

GBP/USD: Sterling rockets to 1.49 handle

Today is a crucial day for the future of Europe and the European Union as we know. Regardless of the choice of voters in Britain one thing is clear - Europe and the UK will not be the same. Election Day came and l hope Britons to judge righteously.

The latest polls show that the “Remain” campaign is leading with 4% based on surveys conducted yesterday. GBP/USD was trading in narrow range, around the levels from previous session and the sterling marked slight increase against the dollar.

Right after the release of the data from the latest poll, the pair leaped to fresh highs to record highest level since December 2015.
As seen on the H4 chart, GBP/USD broke through the first resistance located at $1.46825 and now is flying towards the key level at $1.49, where is located the next resistance. Support levels are located at $1.4370 and $1.14088.
The pair is staying above 20, 50 and 100-day MA, which is showing continuation of the upward movement and meanwhile acting as supports.
The stochastic and RSI are indicating overbought conditions, but still favor the bulls.

                                Chart: GBP/USD H4

NZD/USD trending higher

Since last Sunday, when lates polls showed that Bremain sentiment prevails and most probably United Kingdom will not leave the European Union, the apetite for riskier stocks and higher yielding currencies increased significantly. Seems like the kiwi cheered at this scenario and NZD/USD is boosted.
In the early hours today the pair was indecisive and trading lower. At noon the pair conquered the resistance level at $0.7170, where was marked yesterday’s high.
Current support level is located at $0.7173, standing together with the 5-day moving average. Immediate resistance level is seen at $0.7172 and should the pair break trough it, bulls next target is $0.7202.
The Relative Strenght Index is facing upwards with the momentum indicator also trending higher.
The current outlook is bullish with expectations for booking new 1-yr highs.

                                Chart: NZD/USD H4

AUD/USD in positive short term development

AUD/USD was trading elevated on Tuesday amid the rising sentiment.
The Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes from the latest meeting earlier today and announced that will keep the monetary policy unchanged -  the main interest rate is left at 1.75%.

The pair caught the positive mood and jumped above the current resistance level at $0.75. The intraday high was pinned at $ 0.7513, a level not seen since 9th of June.
The daily support is located at $ 0.7447, which coincides with Fibo 50% retracement level. Until staying above, the short term outlook is bullish.

But having in mind the expected turbulence in market during the next days, it is not quite sure how this exactly would result the pair. Hopefully AUD/USD will keep the positive medium term development.

                                

                               Chart AUD/USD H1

Make sure you are fully equipped

The time has almost come to hear the say of British voters. To be or not be in Europe – the question that spur the mood lately. That show of such an exercise may color our vision of markets and disturb the style of trading strategies.

Whether you express a doubt to be in or out of the market, or just like better to observe and delight the drift of circumstances, make sure you are fully equipped for the scenarios.

The assiduous phrasing  and the twisted prose of the ambitious media will not pass the curiosity of the market movers in an way that can fulfil your expectations.

The situation will be fazed, so pave your way for Brexit time!

What caught my eyes and dragged my attention in time was the last webinar of my broker ActivTrades, that was held yesterday and led by Malte Kaub. The „Metatrader suite” is what exactly you need to be fully equipped and it contains the whole package of Metatrader:

• Metatrader 4;
• Metatrader 4 web;
• Metatarder 5;
• Mobile trading.

A comprehensive overview on each platform along with pointing out the differences and advantages were explained in details. Any platform you have chosen, be sure that is powerful enough to secure your trading strategy with the flexibility and functionality implemented.  In case of any doubts you may turn to webinars archive where the introductions of platforms with full characteristics and solutions are stored.

Compose your pleasure and take advantage of what ActivTrades offers. Don’t let go this amazing opportunity and chase the flashing light of market movers.

And enterprises of great pith and moment with this regard their currents turn awry,

and lose the name of action. Soft you now and observe the upcoming masterpiece.

If you fell from the doubts that chased you and turned the way you feel, but still wonder what platform to choose, you can read all about it here. Enlarge your frame of perspectives, because the temple of knowledge is undeniable precious!

  

USD/JPY in anticipation of FOMC meeting

USD/JPY was quite hesitant yesterday. The pair tried to push lower, formed bottom at 105.62 but closed higher at 106.09. Currently the pair is staying above 106 mark and hit an intraday high at 106.41 earlier today. In the short term bulls may try to conquer 106.70 - 107.00 area. On the downside, key support is located at 106.00 - 105.50 levels.

More clear direction will be set later on today, as the market is anticipating Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Still the expectations are that the monetary policy will not be changed. Tomorrow the Bank of Japan will decide on monetary policy and what measures should be taken against the appreciating yen.

Yen stronger

The “safe haven” yen started the week with excellent performance and is extending gains against the basket of the major currencies. The Japanese currency hit a 3-year high against the euro and the pound, and against the US dollar and rose to 6-week peak. The tension on markets is growing amid the intensifying fears on Brexit and the upcoming Fed meeting, which will be held on 14 and 15 June.

USD/JPY is extending the downward movement for the forth consecutive session. Yesterday the pair formed a bottom at ¥105.73 but closed the day slightly higher at ¥106.19.Today the pair is trading 0.44% lower at ¥105.76. Technically the outlook remains bearish in nearest term as long as the pair is below ¥106 mark. The intraday resistance is located at ¥106.50 and support is seen at ¥105.65.

Glowing dawn or the ultimate bubble

“When interest rates are low we have conditions for asset bubbles to develop, and they are developing at the moment. The ultimate asset bubble is gold.”
These words came from George Soros in 2010. 
But something shifted the sentiments in his heart or he was attracted by the crackling sound of the golden mines. During the first quarter of the year George Soros cut by 37% US stock holdings owned by Soros Fund Management and purchased $ 264 million worth shares of the world's largest gold miner Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE: ABX). 

In December 2015 gold price was flirting around $1050 level. As gold was staying logged into this low, we witnessed incredible sell-offs. All market participants were wondering whether gold mining companies could survive and this put the question how exactly is their profit. But at this time gold miners were not the losers. In particular Barrick Gold’s net production price in December 2015 was $850 per troy ounce.

XAU/USD D1

GDX 1Y

Several circumstances influence the gold strength and could support it in future.

Fears surrounding China’s economy, the currency devaluation and the capital outflow led to risk off tone in markets. While these volatile factors exist, Fed will keep its dovish policy. And as long as geopolitical risk persists, gold will sustainably grow.

The bond markets are yielding negative and a third of the sovereign debt has a negative yield.BoJ and ECB keep the negative interest rate policy and both have reached the largest increase in sub-zero yielding government debt. 

And last, but not least the trend of the accelerating government bonds that have zero to negative return.

It’s not clear yet how fundamental factors will shift in the nearest future, but in the long term gold will shine brighter.

Stock markets closed on Friday with sharp losses

European stocks closed with sharp losses on Friday. Most significant declines recorded the banking sector, resource companies and carmakers. Amid the intensive equity sell off, investors turned to the safer government bonds.

Stoxx Europe 600 fell 2.4% to 332.92 points, ending at the lowest level since 6th May. Moreover, the decline marked the biggest daily loss since February 11. Stoxx 600 Index marked the second consecutive week of losses, marking a weekly decline of 2.5%.

DAX 30 index plummeted with 2.5% to finish at 9,836.00, reaching a 3-week low. FTSE 100 index dipped 1.80% to 6,119.47 points. CAC 40 dropped with 2.21% to 4,3078.12, while the pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 2.56% to close at 2,912.59.

US stocks reported losses for a second business day in a row on Friday, pressured by the Brexit uncertainty and the decline in oil prices.

Earlier in the week, S & P 500 almost reached its record high at 2,130.82 set in May 21, 2015.
On Friday, S & P 500 recorded a decrease of 0.9% to 2,096.07 points, falling below the psychological level at 2,100. The benchmark recorded a weekly loss of 0.2%, which was the first decline for the last  four weeks.
Among the other indices,  Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped with  0.66% to 17,866.71 and Nasdaq is down with 1.29% to 4,894.55 points.

Gold at 3-week high

Amid the overall economic instability gold shines with its safe haven status. The disappointing NFP data set the US dollar under pressure and this naturally influenced the growth of the yellow metal. 

Gold finished the week elevated after reaching a 3-week high. The test of the resistance at 1305 seemed to be inevitable, but  the market always reserves the right to surprise us.

Futures for gold climbed higher today to trade at $1,277.30 per troy ounce, as earlier marked intraday high at 1280.80, which is the highest level since 18 May.

As long as the key support located at $1,255 retains, gold bulls are steady.Currently gold hovers around $1,277 and eventual close above this level will target bulls to the resistance at $1,285.

Asian, European and US stocks in red

Asian, European and US stocks ended in red on Thursday. 

Germany’s DAX 30 index dragged down with 1.26% and Stoxx Europe 600 closed with a loss of 0.96%. The French CAC40 index decreased by 0.97%, Italy's MIB lost 0.76%, while the British FTSE100 index gave up 1.11%.

Wall Street also performed with losses on Thursday. Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.38 % to 17 985.13 points. The Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 0.42% to 2 115.95 points.

Bank of Korea cut the key interest rate to 1.25% in response to growing pressure to ease monetary policy and stimulate growth.

South Korea's Kospi index dipped with 2.91 points, or 0.14%, to 2 024.17 points. The Korean won weakened against the dollar, as the pair traded at 1160.30 after the decision against 1150.47 before the announcement of cutting the interest rate.

Japan's Nikkei 225 ended with a decline of 162.51 points, or 0.97%, to 16 668.41 points. In the early trading USD/JPY reached 107.80 but currently dropped to 106.80.

The Australian ASX 200 index closed with a drop of 0.15% to 5 361.93 points.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.14% to 2 1297.88 points, while the Chinese Shanghai Composite lost 0.32% to 2 926.70 points.

NZD/USD at 1-year high

On Thursday the New Zealand dollar significantly rose against the greenback and hit a one-year high. The kiwi pinned a remarkable growth of 1.8% after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the official cash rate in the country unchanged at 2.25 percent,  which surprised some market participants who forecasted a rate cut. 

In the early trading NZD/USD increased to 0.71469, boosted by the RBNZ decision and the recently weak US data that might bring further gains for the kiwi. 

But RBNZ would be more confident to have a weaker exchange rate of the local currency in order to ensure that the future average inflation settle close to the middle of the target level. In view of the sharp appreciation this would be difficult to achieve without one further OCR cut in next months.  Most probably this will happen during the next meeting of the institution in August.

„In the coming months”

The long awaited speech of the Fed Chair Janet Yellen boosted the expectations for raising the benchmark interest rate in the next months.

Surely this will not happen in June, but she pointed out that the US central bank definitely will lift the rates. Yet the exact time frame is not put.

Yellen pointed out some „sizeable” instabilities encicled the US economy. The NFP data encouraged the thoughts of the central bankers. Also we must face the global development and in particular the UK referendum vote. So the future of the Fed’s monetary policy is tightly related to solvation of these fluctuations.

Following Yellen’s speech US dollar remained stuck around 3-week low. EUR/USD fell 0.08% and was trading lower. The intraday low was reached at 1.325.

USD/CAD dropped with 0.60% and was trading 1.2854. The daily low was hit at 1.2831, which pinned  a 3-week high.

Wall Street closed in green, as mostly profited the financial and energy sector.

S&P 500 closed 0.49% up at 2,109, DJIA finished 0.63% higher at 17,919 and Nasdaq rose with 0.53% to 4,968.

NFP weakened the US dollar

The NFP wave made the US dollar suffer with significant losses as the released data for May disappointed market participants. The results showed only 38,000 jobs created amid the expectations of 160,000 and the weak data dipped the US dollar 1.6% against the major currencies.
Following this the likelihood of an increase in interest rates by Fed next week slightly thinned, which reflected to the dollar. In view of the forthcoming referendum in Britain, central bankers may refrain from actions this month. Expectations for rates hike in July also decreased, but probably Janet Yellen will draw attention for possibly tightening the monetary policy later today in Philadelphia.
On Friday the dollar dipped against the yen to 106.50 as a result of negative data, but today started the week with declines again to return around the levels at 107 during the early trading. The pair nears the crucial level at 105 and this awakes the fluctuation about intervention by the Tokyo authorities in the foreign exchange market.
The greenback lost ground against the single currency. The euro climbed to 1.1373 after last week had depreciated to 1.1097. Despite the losses for the greenback due to weak data, overall  US economy remains framed and a rates hike is more likely to be postponed this month as now the focus is more on vote in UK rather than the employment report.
The British pound fell 0.8% against the US dollar this morning, because it became clear that the preliminary surveys showed Leave side ahead. Sterling dipped to 1.4351 dollars.

London BREXIT Update: One month to Referendum | Webinar review

Brexit time nears and very soon the fluctuation that has towered UK  will  vanish.
The more referendum campaign intensifies, the more UK economy is seen in underlined shaky mode.
But until 23th June the walls of uncertainty will be standing still and most important now is how to outrun the fears that chase the market.

The Brexit scenarios, market reaction and an insightful vision how traders could be positioned were presented on yesterday’s webinar, held by ActivTrades and led by the professional trader Paul Wallace.

The most important questions that will follow Brexit are:
1. What kind of EU/UK negotiations will get?
2. Will we see further EU integration or the opposite?

Brexit scenarios implemented in short and long term are very well explained by this pattern:

What will be the market reaction in short and long term view?
First of all we should think about what will be the short term market reaction driven by the possible consequences for the remaining EU members and then to take into consideration the long term market development based on the assumption of EU development in case of split or integration.

With the upcoming Brexit referendum definitely traders are concerned about trading the GBP forex pairs. Paul Wallace shed a light over the most likely scenarions and shared some tips how traders might be positioned.

Important information

Having in mind that the upcoming referendum will bring significant volatility and turbulence in financial markets, my broker, ActivTrades will protect the capital of its clients at market opening on 20th June 2016 by temporarily increasing quadrupled the required margin under the following instruments:

Forex: GBPUSD, GBPCHF, GBPAUD, GBPCAD, GBPJPY, GBPNZD, EURGBP

Indices: UK100

In addition, temporarily the reqired margin for the following instruments will be increased twice:

Forex: EURUSD, EURJPY, EURCHF, EURAUD, EURCAD, EURNZD, EURHUF, EURNOK, EURSEK, EURSGD, EURTRY
Indices: BLG20, ESP35, EURO50, FRA40, GERTEC, GER30, ITA40, NETH25
Shares: CFD tools on British shares

If you have open positions on the above mentioned tools, ActivTrades warns to monitor the levels of your margin account and if necessary to reduce positions by the end of trading session on 17 June (Friday).

If you are willing to have a brighter outlook, follow this link!