The week ahead

While some people are dancing hot samba in Rio De Janeiro, others are preparing for the long celebration of the Lunar New Year. For those who are lack of festive mood, the economic calendar for the week ahead will unfold mostly data on GDP and CPI.

Japan celebrates a national holiday today and the macro agenda from the rest of the world do not offer much except  the numbers on Consumer Price Index in Switzerland.

On Tuesday we can expect the announcement of the British Produce Price Index, Consumer Price Index y/y and m/m and Retail Price Index data. From the US the FOMC Member Mester speech is due.

 Wednesday will be very busy day, but the focus will be on Japan's GDP data for Q4. Further on  we may expect GDP data from Germany, Italy and  the Eurozone. In the afternoon  releases from USA are due on Retail Sales, basic CPI and CPI on Food&Energy.

Thursday will bring employment data from Australia and the RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe speech . The more important news that will  come from the US are the Philadelphia Fed figures and the jobless claims release.

A long weekend will start for South Korea, China and Hong Kong due to the Lunar New Year celebration.

Friday are due the British retail sales data for January the building permits for January in the USA.

The earnings season continues this week the with the financial reports of MetLife, PepsiCo, Western Union, Cisco systems, T-Mobile USA and TripAdvisor.

An Introduction to Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies – a Seminar by ActivTrades

The cryptocurrencies have become a global phenomenon known to most people. In late 2017 we witness huge growth which rises many questions. Why and how you invest in cryptocurrencies and which of them to put in our portfolio? 

You can receive answers of the most urgent matters about investing in cryptocurrencies by attending the seminar organized by my broker, ActivTrades, in Dubai, titled “An Introduction to Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies” that will take place in the the Dusit Thani Hotel, Dubai on 12th February 2018.

The seminar will be led by Dr. Saifedean Ammous, a Professor of Economics at the Lebanese American University and member of the Center on Capitalism and Society at Columbia University and who has been researching Bitcoin economics for seven years. 

The programme of the seminar is as follows:

-An Introduction to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, answering questions about how Bitcoin works and whether it is secure.

-Supply and Demand dynamics

-Other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin and their supply, demand and use cases.

It’s an amazing educational opportunity you shouldn't miss!

To learn more about the seminar and to register, follow this link!

Cable unable to keep post BoE's gains

Following Bank of England’s monetary policy decision and Carney’s speech the GBP/USD pair popped and reached daily high at 1.4066. But Sterling’s enthusiasm didn’t last long UD dollar’s bulls gained strength. As seen on the four hour time frame the rally was halted at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last week’s bearish decline, accompanied by the 100-day SMA. Further on the price dropped to 23.6 % retracement of the same rally and broke the bearish 20-day SMA. Stohastic quit its mid line and turned to south, while RSI maitains bearish slope throughout the day. Currently the pair is trading around the daily low at 1.3890, which comes as first support and in case of bleaking it to below, bears will be attracted by next one at 1.3860. 

Silver Broke support zone that turned resistance

Since mid December Silver formed an ascending channel and reached its highest value at $17.70 on January 25, which turned to be the infection point as had touched the descending trend line starting from late 2016 and the price turned its direction towards south.
Last Friday bears pushed the XAG/USD outside of the channel and didn’t leave a chance for return. As seen on the daily chart the price is now located far below the 100-day SMA, which supported the January lows, but now has turned into resistance. Another old support, new resistance is the 17.76, where today bulls attempts to move higher were halted.
On the same chart stochastic is located within extreme overbought conditions and is showing strong bearish momentum, while RSI is around its 40, but has lost directional strength.
The attempts for recovery during last sessions has failed and indicators show that the downward potential is increasing, so Silver will meet soon the key support area around $16.30.

AUD/USD In sideways consolidation ahead of RBA

AUD/USD was uplifted today, supported by higher copper prices having marked daily high at 0.7956 and low at 0.7890. However the pair was unable to keep steady gains and entered into sideways consolidation just ahead of important macro events coming from Australia tonight. The trade balance data for December and January retail sales are due, but the highlight of the day will be the RBA meeting. It’s largely expected that the central bankers will keep unchanged the rates at 1.5%.

And expectations make Aussie weaker. Technically speaking the short term outlook for the pair remains bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is very close and is likely to break the support provided by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest bullish run around 0.7890, where today found bottom. RSI and stochastic are located within negative territories and both are showing bearish momentum.

In case of breaking the above mentioned level, next hurdle for bears is seen at 0.7850, followed by 0.7820. On the flip side first resistance comes at 0.7956 and second at 0.7985.

GBP/USD Close to key support

Friday’s NFP numbers exceeded the expectation, showing strong labour market boost and providing initial impulse for GBP bears. With the start of the new week Sterling continues falling, weakened by discouraging UK Services PMI figures.

GBP/USD is down with 0.74% for the day with current market price 1.4017. Technically speaking the short term outlook for the pair remains bearish. On the four hour time frame the price the 20-day SMA has turned from flat to bearish, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs still maintain bullish slopes. During the last 4 hours the priced dropped with around 100 pips but found support at 1.4017 (the current level) provided by the 100-day SMA.

RSI and stochastic are located within extreme negative areas and both are showing bearish momentum.
According to above the GBP/USD is now poised to extend its decline and first support comes at the key level 1.4000 and in case of breaching it, doors will be opened for testing 1.3979 (last week’s low).  

The critical event for the Sterling this week is the "Super Thursday" with BoE’s release on its latest monetary policy and Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR), which will bring huge volatility and will set more clear direction for the GBP/USD. 

EUR/NZD Closing outside of the wedge

Since June 27 EUR/NZD has entered into ascending channel, but the pair abandoned it in mid December. Bulls attempted to enter into it again, but failed. Currently the pair is trading at 1.7045, the point of the exit from the channel and the staring base of the wedge formation. 

As clearly seen on the daily chart the top side took shape and the price is about to close outside of it. Another confirmation for the rising bulls' froce is the importance of this level, support turned into resistance. RSI and stochastic are floating within warm positive territories with strong upward momentum. Short term support is provided by the 100-day SMA at 1.6894, around which the price was hovering around last week. To confirm the bullish bias in the long term bulls should conquer at least the 1.7450 handle in order to get back into the uptrend channel.