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XAG/USD Confluence of July's trend line and June's support

Since the beginning of February Silver prices are sharply sloping to downwards. Today the price surpassed the important support level at $17.00 and currently is trading at $16.95.

On the daily chart is clearly seen the confluence of the downward trend staring from July 2016 and the support line at June’s 2016 lows. Could this be read as a turning point or a minor stop before continuation of the short term trend?

The same chart is also showing very bearish readings. Both RSI and stochastic are placed well below their mid-lines and are displaying strong bearish momentum.

Given the fact that the US Dollar is relatively strong now, there is reasonable opportunity Silver to continue losses even below December’s 2016 trend line. 

USD/JPY Higher

Yesterday USD/JPY was seen at neutral stance and was stuck within tight range. But today better than expected number in the US ADP awakened the bulls. The pair broke the recent range and conquered the key resistance at 114.00. The current market price is 114.60 and is slightly above major handle 114.50 – the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest November to December up move.

On the four-hour time frame is seen that the pair has advanced above the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, while the 20-day SMA is turning to north. RSI and stochastic are located within extreme overbought region and are displaying strong bullish momentum.

Nevertheless the bullish trend in the medium term might be confirmed only if USD/JPY advance beyond 114.95 – 115.30 area (late January’s and February’s highs). 

Gold finds support at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement

The US dollar is seen generally stronger amid the rising expectations for the upcoming rates hike and the bulls are retreating from the buck-denominated precious metals. Today Gold prices marked a fresh new low at $1215 and bullishness is fading away in the short term.

Currently Gold is finding support at $1214 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest November to February up leg). The four-hour time frame is showing bearish 20-day SMA, while the 100-day SMA has lost direction and is acting as a resistance at $1238. RSI and stochastic are heading south and are displaying extreme oversold conditions. Thus situated according to the technical readings, it appears likely that the precious metal is poised to extend the downward slope towards $1210 level and even may drop to test the key support at $1200. 

EUR/JPY Undecided

EUR/JPY is about to end the trading day near the Friday’s closure point at 120.50. Though the pair was seen slightly elevated and marked daily high at 121.15, which is a 2-week high, was unable to hold above the bullish 100-day SMA on the daily chart. Meanwhile the 4 hour time frame is showing that price is now caught in range between the 20-day and 100-day SMA. RSI is slightly above the mid-lines and is loosing directional strength. Immediate support is located at 120.15 and in case of closing below it, the pair will be poised to extend the downside towards February’s lows around 119.40 - 119.70. Looking to the upside first resistance is seen at 120.75 (200-day SMA) and higher at 120.40 (February’s high).   

USD/JPY at 2-week high

During the last three sessions the USD/JPY pair is moving steadily upwards and today marked a fresh two-weeks high at 114.58. The renewed expectations for rates hike and the rising US bond yields fuelled the greenback’s strength. 

Technical reading on the four-hour time frame are showing bullish signals. The 20-day SMA is crossing to above the 100-day SMA, which is starting to turn south. RSI and stochastic are displaying extreme overbought conditions and had marked higher highs.

Strong resistance is seen at 114.95 – 115.00 area and in case US bulls find enough power to conquer it, the rally might be extended towards 115.30 – 115.65. Short-term support is now located at 114.00 and lower at 113.65.

AUD/NZD at resistance

Australia’s Q4 data release surprised with better than expected numbers and set the Aussie in elevated mood. Of course this is not relevant against the US dollar, as latest Trump performance pushed the greenback and stocks higher. But meanwhile the AUD/NZD rallied today and succeeded to escape from the recent range. Fundamentally speaking, NZD is influenced now by the RBNZ decision to keep OCR unchanged until September, which reflected on pair’s move up. 

Today the pair sharply rallied and reached 1.0770 – a key resistance level. On the daily chart is the 50-day SMA is crossing to above the 200-day SMA and is giving bullish sentiment. RSI is slightly above the mid-lines and is showing bullish momentum, while stochastic is still placed below its mid-lines, but has turned to north. Closing above 1.0745 will tempt bulls to re-test the key resistance at 1.0770 and will open doors for further gains.