Friday, 10 February 2017

USD/JPY Short-term Bullish

Yesterday the USD/JPY pair moved 131 pips higher after an amazing rally. Today we’re witnessing acceleration of the bulls’ strength as the pair is testing the 114.00 level. The positive bias is confirmed by crossing to above the bearish 20-day SMA. This breach undoubtedly will open doors to 115.00 region, where the 55-day SMA is acting as a resistance. On the daily chart technical indicators are firming the continuation of the upside run. Meanwhile bears visited several times the 111.50 area, where the 100-day SMA is acting as intermediate support, but yet can not enough power to pass through it. The near-term bias has shifted to bulls’ camp.  




Thursday, 9 February 2017

Gold At Three Month High

As both Europe and USA are overtaken by political woes and uncertainty is rising, investors are eyeing precious metals. Gold prices resumed the upward movement and yesterday marked the highest level since November at $1244. 
Technical indicators have modestly retreated from the overbought region. As seen on the four hour frame RSI is located slightly below 70 and is showing lack of momentum. Stochastic is displaying modest bearish direction, but yet is within extreme overbought area.
Short-term support is found at $1230 (50% Fibonacci rertracement of latest $1137 to $1122 decline). Next support is seen at $1204 (38.2% of same retracement).
To the upside bulls are thrilled by $1245 (a multi month high) and if conquering this level, next target is the resistance at $1255 (61.8% Fibo). 
Among this political uncertainty, a march towards the $1300 handle seems to be quite possible, due to the increased demand for safe-heaven assets.   


Wednesday, 8 February 2017

EUR/USD Couldn't Hold Above 1.0700

During the early European session EUR/USD marked an intraday low at 1.0640, which is the lowest level for February. Shortly afterwards the bulls found enough stregth for recovery and pushed the pair to the daily high at 1.0713, where the the 20-day and 100-day SMAs have met.  
The upward potential is now limited by the 1.0720 region, because as clearly it is seen on the H4 chart this exactly where the 20-day SMA is crossing to downwards the 100-day SMA. Technical indicators have recovered from oversold area, but yet are below the mid-lines. RSI is showing lack of momentum and Stochastic is displaying bullish momentum. 
Given that the bulls will need more powerful incentive to confirm their strength. Intermediate resistance is seen at 1.0750 and next at 1.0800. The current market price is 1.0688 and if failing to hold around this area, the pair is poised to reinforce the downward slope towards 1.0650 and even lower towards the key support at 1.0590.


GBP/USD Vulnerable Ahead Of The Final Vote

Ahead of final Brexit vote the GBP/USD pair remained in consolidation during today’s trading, but as the time nears, the bulls are showing persistence.Both Sterling and the US Dollar are finding fundamental challenges at the time being. The greenback is weakened by the Trump’s course of action and the GBP is experiencing the highly weighted pressure on Brexit development.
Technical indicators in the hourly chart are located within overbought area. RSI has turned to south, but is still above 50 level. The Stochastic displayed strong bullish momentum today, but currently is loosing momentum.
The 50-day SMA is placed around 1.2470 region and is acting as a support. If broken, next bears target is seen at 1.2400 handle. Looking to the upside the pair is facing first resistance at 1.2545 (the weekly highs) and next at the key level 1.2600. 
GBP/USD is quite vulnerable ahead of final vote on Brexit, but in the short-term this is the main driver that would set more clear direction for the pair. 



Saturday, 4 February 2017

Will The Fire Rooster Be The Market Booster


As the many antics of the inconsistent, sizzling and mischievous characteristics of the Red Monkey left significant tracks and marked 2016 with strong glitters and jitters, now new awakening is in force.
Along with the Chinese Lunar New Year, new expectations are rising. The urgency, energy and vibrancy of the desired changing environment will be set in motion with the Fire Rooster.
If there is something in your nature that do not understand or accept the Chinese zodiac, I would only  like to drag your attention to the signals of this New Year from another viewpoint and to implement some signs  into the tentative market forecasts.


The comfort provided by complacency and indifference is a past. The future will be fuelled by a certain ambition and assertiveness. 
And here is a slight glimpse of what is about to come along with the Fire Rooster.
A distinctive feature of the Rooster is not be quite and not to care about what is expected or desired. Do you find any resemblance with the new US President elect? Daring tweets, new Berlin wall, immigration ban. And meanwhile the Trumponomics is offering fiscal relaxation and protectionism, which is inflationary and is supposed to reinforce the US Dollar bulls. Yet it is too much and yet it is too soon to see how this will enact and how much time it will take to affect. One thing is sure – markets are at risk caused by the disappointment of Trump trade.
The conflicting elements of fire and Rooster’s self confidence and ambition could be clearly be read in Brexit drafts. How hard it will be and how Europe will handle it? Talks will not end soon, but talks are affecting the markets. Sterling will be extremely vulnerable and UK assets’ value will be marked down. 
Oil market balance is undetermined. The supply glut is still labelled by some unknowns. And markets are going to shift the mood into „Wait and see” mode. 
The Rooster is going to blaze with the characteristic of alarm clock and is going to brake the silence of uncertainties related to the banking sector. The optimisms towards the investible global banks is rising along with the outlook of higher interest rates. The economic growth is accelerating as policy gears are switching from monetary to fiscal measures.  
I have outlined just some fews, but within the geomagnetic field of importance. Of course some side effects such as plummeting of the Mexican peso and Turkish lira , Russia’s escaping the trend and China’s capital outflow shouldn’t be neglected.
In summary, the year of the Rooster will bring simultaneously optimism, movement, changes and turbulence on markets. And new opportunities on personal level.
Whatever you meet at this year unfold, I suggest you always to think about the present - how wide it is, how deep it is and how much might be yours to keep. Transform your fears into prudence, mistakes into intuition and desire into undertaking. Then the Rooster will be your booster!


Thursday, 2 February 2017

AUD/USD Bulls Keep On Moving

The AUD/USD pair powerfully moved to the upside and printed fresh three month high at 0.7695 today. Strong macro data from Australia supported the surge, driven mainly by the fantastic trade surplus. 
Upon the US session the pair pulled back and is currently trading at 0.7661. 
Since January 17th the pair  has been caught within relatively tight range, but now seems to be getting out of it. In the short run this performance could be read as correction to the downside. But the four-hour time frame is indicating bullish trend. The price has crossed to above the 20-day SMA, which is also in tact with the bulls. RSI has retraced from the overbought territory and Stochastic has turned to south. Generally this is against the short term bullishness, but I think that both indicators are now in favour of the current pullback and do not significantly prove further decline. Strong support is seen at 0.7600 and lower at 0.7550. Resistance is located now at 0.7695 and higher at 0.7777.


GBP/USD at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement

After marking a fresh multi-month high at 1.2705 the GBP/USD pair dropped sharply today. The pair is currently visiting the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest January to February uprise. Bears reached out and found a temporary shelter at this level as it’s acting as a support now. 
The four-hour time frame is showing bearish signals, generated by the technical indicators. Both RSI and Stochastic have turned to south and are displaying strong downward momentum. The price has crossed to below the 20-day SMA. Bears might be reinforced in case of passing through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of same upward leg at 1.2431. Although the current pullback might be seen as correction, the risk of further downslide remains in pace until the NFP data from US due tomorrow set more clear direction for the Cable.