Trump’s trade war impact on consumer confidence in USA

The confidence of US consumers in the economic development of the country declined in July to a six-month low - primarily because of concerns about new customs tariffs on imports of goods into the United States. The US consumer confidence index fell to 97.1 points in July from 98.2 points in June, with a median forecast in the financial markets for a much modest decline to 98.0 points, the lowest level of the January index here.

Despite the surprising deterioration the July index level remained close to the average of 97.7 in the previous twelve months and is still 4% above the year-ago rate thanks to robust job growth employment and very low unemployment.

So far, job and income growth has been able to offset higher inflation and interest rates. However, the clouds on the horizon are due to growing concerns about the potential negative impact of customs tariffs on the national economy. Fears of the negative impact of high tariffs have increased recently, rising from 15%, according to surveyed Americans in May, to 21% in June and to 38% in July. The consumer expectations index for future economic activity improved slightly to 86.4 points from 86.3 points a month earlier, while the index defining the current US consumer rating for the country's economic conditions fell sharply in July to 113.9 points from 116.5 points in June.

The trade war began II

There are also European goods - steel and aluminium - which are also subject to an additional 25% duty.

Meanwhile, Beijing's attempts to form a common front with the European Union against the US president's policy have failed. After meetings of senior Chinese officials with European leaders in Brussels and Berlin, these proposals were rejected.

The Chinese will ask the EU to file a joint action against them with the United States at the World Trade Organisation, and also to come up with a joint document after the EU-Chinese leaders meeting on 16-17 July in Beijing.

Instead, Beijing is likely to open up its European investment economy and curb bans on entire sectors that are currently in place.

After this denial of China, it remains only a weapon against American myths - a devaluation of the yuan. China's central bank cut the yuan to the dollar before the introduction of tariffs.

The trade war began I

So, the trade war began, starting at 00:01 GMT today. The US has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods worth $34B, with Beijing reacting imposing an equal measure, with tariffs of 25% on a $34 billion list of US goods that includes 818 products like soybeans, pork, electric vehicles, air planes, hard drives, but excluding some popular goods such as mobile phones or TVs.

US President Donald Trump confirmed yesterday to journalists that the tariffs are in force today. He expressed readiness for a sharp escalation of the possible trade war between the two largest economies in the world.Beijing promises to repel the strike quickly with duties on American goods of the same value. The country is forced to give a "necessary answer", but does not specify what the nature of this response will be, but Chinese duties are expected to affect agricultural commodities such as the soybean that the Chinese market is very dependent on. Customs may also affect the automotive sector and marine products.

With the imposition of duties the United States and China have produced the first shots in the trade war.

100 days of trumpery tweets

We are quickly approaching April 29, the day that marks Donald Trump’s first 100 days in the White House. 

Despite he is constantly referring to the important 100-day landmark throughout the pre-election campaign, he said in an interview that it was an “artificial barrier” that people shouldn’t pay much attention to. 

But I think it worths, because these 100 days will be labelled as worst on record.

And here is my reading on how unsuccessful his agenda has been so far:

No considerable improvement on any major legislation. 24 executive orders, 13 signed Congressional Review Act resolutions, a failed health care bill and a stalled wall. 

Even the executive order on immigration is still stuck in the courts.  

Worst administration management ever. More than 50 nominations were made in order to fill 553 positions of the executive sector and until Friday last week yet 90% are not nominated. But the rest 10% provoked scandals with major consequences. 

Last but not least – the weak foreign policy. Is Trump acting as a globalist as he appeared when backing off his criticism of China or a protectionist, as he appeared to be when starting a trade spat with Canada?  Interventionist, isolationist or alternative?

Undeniable fact is that Donald Trump does not fail to share his thoughts on Twitter. The library of his moods, opinions, personal thrills and even diplomacy. He uses Twitter to break news, share his views and feud with critics and celebrities at all times of day or night. Lots of outbursts were read, but the masterpiece for me remains the criticism on China for its exchange rate policy and its operations in the South China Sea. And few days after „I don't regret anything”. 

As Seth Meyers said in his Late Night Show - “Trump is so ignorant that he’s ignorant of his own ignorance.” I found this quite meaningful.

*The idea of a president’s first 100 days comes from Franklin D. Roosevelt, who was actually referring to the first 100 days of a special Congressional session to fight the Great Depression.

* Trumpery has been in use in English since the late 15th century, and has been used, at one time or another, to refer to weeds, people, religious matters and generally worthless things in a broad sense. 

Trumpalyize this

The very first excecutive order of the President Donald Trump hit like a wrecking ball the healthcare walls of stability and galvanized the public disapproval. Inadequate, reckless or just to confirm that this man is redefining weird on an hourly basis.

With no Republican replacement for the Affordable Care Act seen ahead, every step taken to destabilise the individual insurance market and Medicaid risks weakening of the health-care system in need of reinforcement.

People are discouraged of buying insurance, particularly healthy people who need to balance the risk bets and to keep their premiums reasonable.

Next to creep with troubles is The Justice Department by cutting the government’s defence against a congressional lawsuit that intends to stop some $7 bln in federal “cost-sharing” payments to insurers.

The president’s doings are going to flay his voters alive and he is not taking into consideration that needs healthy people to feed his flame. 

If the responsibility to strengthen the system has not been approached with the fundamental significance, then a prescription for self heath care is absolutely obligatory. Trumpalize this with your psychotherapist.