XAU/USD Pressuring key support levels

For fourth consecutive session Gold is trading with negative tone, down with 0.21% for the day and currently trading around $ 1219. The growing expectations that Fed will keep its plan to continue raising interest rates by the end of the year is currently the main reason for the downward pressure on the precious metal.
On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its bearish moving averages. RSI is slightly below its mid-line and has lost directional strength. Stochastic is showing strong bearish momentum and is nearing the extreme negative territory.
XAU/USD is about to test the $ 1218 horizontal support which is broken will intensify the bearish sentiment and will result in retesting the next key one at $ 1211.

 

USD/JPY In limited range ahead of BoJ and Fed this week

USD/JPY is trading almost unchanged from Fliday’s closing level with current market price 111.07 ahead of the upcoming BoJ and Fed meetings, scheduled to decide on monetary policy this week.
Technically speaking the short term outlook remains neutral. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below the bearish 50-day SMA and the flat 100 –day SMA, while the 20-day SMA, also flat, is proving immediate support few pips below the current price.  RSI is located at its mid-line and has lost directional strength. Stochastic      is showing strong upward momentum around 65 level.
The downside offers strong support at 110.60 provided by last week’s low while the upside is challenged by 111.40.
The pair may continue with no significant progress until BoJ’s policy meeting tomorrow, followed by Fed’s meeting on Wednesday, which will bring fresh development and signals.

ActivTrades Bahamas

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) is the independent EU agency that brings safety and stability of the European Union's financial system by enhancing the protection of investors and promoting stable and orderly financial markets.

Earlier this year ESMA mandated EU-wide regulatory changes affecting leverage for contracts for difference (CFDs) and prohibited marketing, distribution and sale of binary options to retail investors.

Following this new regulation there are huge consequences for the retail traders, as leverage for CFDs on major currency pairshas been reduced to 1:30, indices, non-major currency pairs and gold leverage will be at 20:1, other commodities and non-major indices leverage will be 10:1, equities leverage will be 5:1 and crypto currency leverage will be 2:1.

My broker, ActivTrades,  will apply the new ESMA measures from July 29, 2018 at 11:00 am (CET).

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The ActivTrades Bahamas clients will will keep the previous leverage and margin conditions without having to open a Professional Account.

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EUR/USD Downside pressure is increasing after dovish ECB

The EUR/USD pair turned sharply to the downside, retracing from closer to weekly highs and weakened further below the 1.1700 mark after the latest ECB monetary policy update with  Draghi reaffirming to hold interest rates steady through the summer of 2019.
Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its flat moving averages. RSI is located slightly below its mid-line and has lost directional strength. Stochastic is showing strong bearish momentum and is nearing negative territory.

Currently the pair is trading at 1.1656, but the huge selling pressure might drag the pair towards the 1.1600 handle, which if broken to below will open doors for testing next support lines at 1.1575 and 1.1535.  Looking to the upside, 1.1700 remains a resistance hard to achieve, but in case of any bullish attempts next target is provided by 1.1725 and 1.1745.

GBP/USD At weekly highs

GBP/USD is trading higher today, up with 0.24% on Trump-Juncker meeting with expectations for positive outcome on trade war talks. Currently the pair is trading at 1.3175 having marked a weekly high. Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing above its bullish 20-day and 50-day SMAs and below the flat 100-day SMA which is acting as a first support just few pips higher. RSI is located at 62 and is aiming north, while stochastic has turned to the downside although remains above its mid-line. Strong bullish bias will be confirmed only if the pair conquers 1.3200 handle with next target 1.3230. The downside remains supported by 1.3155 and lower at 1.3100.

USD/JPY The upside is capped by 61.8% Fibo

Although USD/JPY remains confined to Monday’s range, the Japanese Yen is showing strength after the preliminary July Nikkei Manufacturing PMI figures which came under market's expectations. Alongside with this results, the country's leading index was revised to a 6-month high of 106.9 in May giving a reflection to the current economic activity that has fallen to 116.8 in May from 117.5 in the previous month. US Treasury yields are keeping Monday’s tops but there is no perspective for further rally which leads to slowdown in the upward development for the pair. Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains neutral. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its bearish 20-day SMA and flat 50-day and 100-day SMAs. RSI is located around 36 and has lost directional strength. Stochastic has turned to north but remains below its mid-line. Currently the pair is consolidating around 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its latest bullish run and according to technical indicators the chances for steeper advance are limited. The upside is still capped by 111.45 where the 100-day SMA is developing while the downside remains supported by the 110.80 – 110.70 zone. 

EUR/USD Quiet ahead of ECB

Fed-related negative mood from late last week keeps holding most majors. EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1700 and currently has settled at 1.1687. The pair continues trading within tight range with no clear clues. On the four hour time frame the price is developing above its flat moving averages. RSI has lost directional strength and is located around its mid-line. Stochastic has turned sharply to downside and is showing strong bearish momentum. Bulls continue the fight for the 1.1700 level although the selling pressure remains strong between 1.1750 and 1.1720. The downside remains supported by 1.1685 and lower at 1.1650. Most likely the big movement will come on Thursday, when the ECB has its monetary policy meeting.

USD/CAD Upbeat Canadian data supported the Loonie

The USD/CAD is trading around 1.3130, having marked  1.08 % down for the day after upbeat Canadian economic data today. Inflation is up with 2.5% for June, beating the expectations for 2.4% and retail sales also showed better than expected figures - 2.0% rise in May against the forecasted 1.1%. Meanwhile the US dollar still suffers because of Trump’s comments on Fed’s policy that rate hikes are causing troubles on the economic progress.

Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains bearish. On the four hour time frame the prices is developing below its flat moving averages. RSI is locates at 38 and has lost directional strength. Stochastic is displaying strong downward slope and has entered into oversold area. 

The pair fell with almost 140 pips today from its daily high, surpassed the 1.3155 support area and is suggesting a slowdown of the bullish trend. Should the pair break the next support at 1.3110 then doors are opened for testing 1.3065.

USD/JPY Plunged on Trump's comments

During the European session the USD/JPY pair skyrocketed and reached highest levels since early January, having marked daily high at 113.18. But Trump’s comments on Fed’s policy that rate hikes are causing troubles on the economic progress made bulls give up. Earlier today the data from Japan showed better than expected numbers on trade balance while imports printed huge drop comparing to previous month (from 14% to 2.5%).

Currenlty the pair is trading at 112.48 after had pinned daily low at 112.05. On the four hour time frame the price is developing above its bullish moving averages, so the long term uptrend is not at risk. RSI and stochastic are displaying strong bearish slopes and are close to oversold territories. Further declines are expected in case of closing below the daily low which will bring next bearsih target at 111.80. On the other hand bulls might try to fight the first resistance at 112.60 which if broken will offer next one at 113.00.

EUR/USD Forming triangle pattern

The single currently pressured the 1.1600 level in the early trading hours as the US dollar gathered strength on the outlook for the US economy presented by the US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell in Congress as well as by Kansas City Fed President George. Both officials shared opinion that the US economy is expected to remain strong with employment and inflation rising that justifies the gradual monetary policy normalisation with rates going higher.
As seen on the daily chart since mid June the EUR/USD pair is consolidating below the 1.1800 handle and above the resistance turned то support which is the top of the two-year range.
On the same chart the price is currently forming a triangle pattern,тhat often comes before the trend continuation,but having in mind the previous drops bring bearish implications. In case of closing below the triangle bottom, doors are opened for testing the support zone at 1.1520 – 1.1570.

Friends Will Be Friends

Quite inconvenient and surreal, but spectacular. That’s how the most important geopolitical event was held.

If, as in the World Cup, the winner, the top scorer and the best footballer of the championship were awarded, after the meeting in Helsinki between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin yesterday, the Russian president would leave with all the awards. 

But that’s not the most important. The events that unfolded are likely to have significant and unpredictable political and geopolitical reverberations and profound consequences in Washington and beyond. 

In the press conference following the summit, the US president stated that he trusted the word of the Russian leader as much as that of his own intelligence chief. This strategy is like letting a criminal investigate their own crimes.

But here, perhaps, someone had to remind President Trump that the FBI, Hillary Clinton or Special Prosecutor Robert Muller had not invaded and occupied Crimea in 2014. And none of these people are involved in the coup attempt in Montenegro in 2016. And that none of these people are investing money and efforts to break the negotiations between the Republic of Macedonia and Greece and to "halt" the Euro-Atlantic perspective in the Western Balkans.

The US president, in the presence of Vladimir Putin, delegates the US intelligence and security services, including a clear consensus on the Kremlin's intervention in the US elections. And this is the most serious mistake in Trump's presidency.

Paradoxically, the Russian president has better expressed the critical position of the United States (and the EU) on the current status of the Crimea than Donald Trump did.
We have a brekaing news - Trump and Putin are BFFs now.

There is an interesting definition for quisling, otherwise known as "a person who betrays his or her own country by aiding an invading enemy, often serving later in a puppet government."

And as my idol Freddie Mercury sings:
It's not easy love, but you've got friends you can trust

Friends will be friends

When you're in need of love they give you care and attention

Friends will be friends.

Yes, it’s not an easy love.

AUD/USD Above 0.7400 ahead of Powell's speech

The AUD/USD pair is trading within tight range today around 0.7400, having marked daily high at 0.7437 during the Asian session. During the early trading hours the RBA meeting minutes revealed that the next move on rates in Australia will likely be up, once the unemployment lowers and inflation marks growth. Meanwhile the US dollar is gaining strength ahead of US federal Reserve’s chairman Jerome Powells testimony in Congress later on today.
Technically speaking the short term outlook remains neutral. On the four hour time frame the price is developing between its flat moving averages. RSI and stochastic are displaying bearish slopes slightly below their mid-lines and still remain far from extreme negative territories. According to above readings a risk of downward continuation will appear only is case of breaking the support at 0.7370 en route to next one at 0.7330. On the other hand bulls could get some love if pushing above the daily high and then next target will be offered by the resistance at 0.7490.