To the moon and back

While I was spending my time today with some totally simple things for the planet Earth like the upcoming crises due to refugees, territorial disintegration and politics of austerity caused by the difficult economic situation in Europe, my attention was stolen by astonishing news. 

One world is not enough. Homo Sapiens now wants to conquer the universe. 

NASA is planning to transfer cargoes and materials to the moon and the first offshore industrial plant is intended to produce rocket fuel needed for trips to other planets.

The Amazon founder and CEO Jeff Bezos thinks that we need to colonise the moon — and time is of the essence. He is planning to send in orbit space ships for New Glenn in 2020.

On the other hand to make things easier for the humankind, to provide more audience for this divine show and people to populate the new colonies, Michio Kaku promises immortality until 2100. Until then the humans will possess not only biological immortality but also digital immortality.  

The today’s news in fact is nothing new. A few years ago Yuval Harari hoped his book Homo Deus would not be perceived as a prophecy. But the alternative is stasis. Let’s prepare for next giant leap for humankind and the history of tomorrow. 

And talking about space I can not skip to mention the unique satire and humour in another elegy for space, namely The Big Space F**k by favourite author Kurt Vonnegut. And as it ends : “Nine!” said a voice. And then, “Eight!” And then, “Seven!” And so on.

Master of the diplomatic chaos

Donald Trump is the worst president of the United States in modern history especially when we are talking about negotiations and making agreements. In early May diplomatic talks have begun  which could bring double success to its administration. He is now collecting the debris from the Iran talks, and the North Korea process has stalled. He is in a tense relationship with key US allies and increases the risk of military conflicts in the Middle East and Asia. 
It is important to know that the reason he says about these situations is that he can not focus on his energy. You see now how the master of the chaos turned to be Gandalf the White in the Middle-earth. He will open the huge bag with varied assortment of magic tricks and will fight against the tough Russian orcs. But most interesting would be what proficiency with pyrotechnics will demonstrate against the Rocket man.

The Italian job

“The hottest places in hell are reserved for those who, in times of great moral crisis, maintain their neutrality.” 

Centuries ago the author of those words  had a memorable journey through the nine circles of Hell. Today we witness plenty of allegory packed into Dante's figurative tour through the underworld at the side of Italy nowadays. The latest release of Italian job offers similar divine comedy but with a sense of a classical medieval political drama along with the forms of tyranny and signoria in a large part of the city-states as the Republic started to lose influence. 

Well the modern patriotic map of Italian Republic is divided into pro- and anti-European forces, which are shaping the political landscape. 

With a general election expected as early as September, the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the anti-immigran and euro-skeptic League are greeting an uncertain new period for the country’s political and economic outlook.

Another quote I will use now. “The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves.”, said by Caesar (WS). So let’s hope Italians will stop counting on the stars from the EU flag and start counting the neutrals and then they might find their own way towards the nine spheres of Heaven.  

EUR/GBP Drifts lower

EUR/GBP closed last week few pips below the psychological barrier at 0.8800. Bulls once again failed just below this level but moreover sharply retreated and currently the pair is forming a fresh weekly low at 0.8737. A new portion of weakness in the the single currency was served by the ongoing Italian job as the government formation talks collapsed.
Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains neutral to bearish. On the four hour time frame the price has crossed to below its moving averages and all of them had lost directional strength. RSI and stochastic are showing strong bearish momentum although are still far from oversold readings.

The downside is supported by 0.8730 area, but a sustained weakness below it will lead to a subsequent drop towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 2017 bullish run at 0.8690. This level has been tested but rejected several times during the last year, so in case of breaking it next bearish target will be offered by the April low at 0.8620. The upside remains capped by the 0.8800 handle which is so hard to fight during the last two weeks. However, once taken will open door for testing the resistance around 0.8840 area.

Control, control, you must learn control!

After years of tension throughout Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program and months of war threats and insults between the leaders of North Korea and USA, both sides finally came to agreement to hold a summit on June 12. Yesterday the U.S. president Trump called off this planned meeting saying that his decision is based on the tremendous anger and open hostility displayed by Rocket man’s most recent statement. In true Trumpian fashion today we have shift of the mood as he said that North Korea summit may still happen.

Anyone who once believed that this businessman in the White House through his unconventional nature could get to a quick, splendid performance would most likely now face reality. We are witnessing an unprecedented political drama: first bluffing and threatening, then flattering, then threatening again, then flattering again. The result is completely unpredictable, as do the two main characters - Trump and Kim. 

Uncertainty and hesitation are traits of the human nature that we encounter every day. But these are features that should not be displayed by a character like Trump.

Maybe he is mentally and emotionally exhausted or has lost himself in the big game of thrones. Or maybe is preparing his masterpiece. 

Whatever it is, the truth is rarely pure and never simple and most likely Mr Trump do not take into consideration the importance of being earnest.

As my colleague Yoda says: „Control, control, you must learn control!" 

Gold rallies above $1300

The pace in demand for precious metal uplifted significantly after the breaking announcement from President Trump that the planned meeting with North Korea leader Kim Jong-un will not be held. Gold jumped from $1298 to $1306.50 and pinned highest level since mid May. 

Bulls have returned back in the game with strong impacted and added up some more than $10 from yesterday’s highs. Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains bullish. On the four hour time frame the price decisively broke to above the 50% Fibonacci retracement of latest December to January bullish run. Also surpassed the flat 100-day SMA while the 20-day SMA has turned to the upside. RSI is located just below 70 and is losing directional strength. Stochastic is showing extreme overbought conditions and is keeping bullish momentum. 

So far the rally remains capped by the resistance at $1310 and above this level bulls would be tempted by the 38.2% Fibo at $1316. The critical $1300 hurdle turned into support today and below it next relevant is $1291.

GBP/JPY Suffered huge drop, the bias remains bearish

GBP/JPY experienced today the coincidence of weak Sterling and strong Japanese Yen, which led to around 300 pips drop and a fresh new 2018 low. The UK inflation data released today showed very disappointing numbers while the US-China relations continuation strengthened brought risk aversion and strengthened the Yen. 

After having pinned the remarkable low at 145.90 the pair bounced to currently trade at 146.90.  As seen on the four hour time frame the price is developing below its bearish moving averages. RSI has lost direction and is staying flat around 30. Stochastic bounced from extreme oversold area and is showing good upward strength although remains at its 20 level. 

In case the pair close below the 147.00 handle we might witness an aggressive short-term bearish scenario. This would bring on the table re-testing of 146.00 level with a potential downward slope toward the next bearish target at 145.00. Looking to the upside the level that should be taken into consideration is 147.60 and above it usable higher resistance comes at 148.20.

EUR/JPY At 9-month lows

EUR/JPY tumbled with around 300 pips this morning and marked 9-month lows. The single currency was set under huge pressure thanks to the political woes in Italy and the disappointing EZ PMIs prints collaborated for the acceleration of the bearish strength. On the other hand the Japanese Yen is staging strong on the back up of a new set of global risk-aversion trade, led by a sell-off across equity markets.
Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains bearish. On the four hour time frame the price has crossed to below its bearish moving averages. Stochastic is located within oversold territory and is showing strong bearish momentum. RSI has started to turn north although is slightly below its 30.

EUR/JPY bounced from the multi month low at 128.32 and currently is trading 128.60. However this recovery is not sustainable because around 128.50 the pair is quite vulnerable. Below this level bears might meet the key 128.00 psychological mark which if broken will bring weakness towards 127.50 area.  The upside remains unattractive despite the attempts for recovery and bulls should be more pushy in order to regain the 130.00 hurdle. 

The British bears are rolling in the deep

Druging the past two weeks the Cable was developoing above the crytical suppor area at 1.3500 but even the uplifted mood that brought the royal wedding couldn’t keep it over there until today. This mornign the USD/GBP pair plummeted and pinned fresh new 2018 low at 1.3390 as a new episode from the Brexit saga was released. The bearish break was fueled by the that Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon who  pledged to restart a drive for Scottish independence.

As seen on the four hour time frame the price abandoned its latest range and now is developing well below its bearish moving averages. RSI and stochastic are starting to bounce from their lowest levels but yet remian below their mid-line and seems taht are looking for direction.

However the British bears are now ruling the trend. Breaking the key support at 1.3500 is of significant importance as this is a historical level, being attarating the bears since January 2009. So from here we might expect test of 1.3320 area and the creation of new yearly low.

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