Gold Is likely to test the lower edge of the 2018 range

Gold came under renewed selling pressure with the start of the new trading week and even marked fresh new monthly low at $1312. The safe-haven asset demand is fading amid rallying DXY and US Treasury yields at multi-year highs and adding calming down of the geopolitical tension in the Korean peninsula. 
Technically speaking the short term outlook remains bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing below its flat 100-day and 200-day SMAs and today crossed to below its 20-day bearish SMA. RSI and stochastic are showing strong downward momentum and are ready to enter into their oversold areas.
Looking at a broader picture since the beginning of 2018 the precious metal is seen in range trading moving back and forth between $1305 and $1366. Last week the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest December to January bullish run was broken and today the bears conquered the next 38.2% Fibo at $1316. Last one is considered as a significant level because has supported XAU/USD for oven a month. Hence the bearish trajectory might continue towards $1309-$1305 area, which is the lower edge of the 2018 range.

NZD/USD The corrective rebound may proceed further weakness

Since mid April the NZD/USD pair has entered into sharp downtrend and today made a new low striking 0.7035. We are witnessing the worst losing streak for about three years. During the past two weeks the price went into free fall until today met the support provided by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of latest November to February bullish run. The  current market price is 0.7093, but this bounce might be considered as a corrective one and warns for further weakness. As seen on the daily chart the price is developing well below its moving averages and also keeps the downtrend that has started since late 2017. RSI and stochastic are located within extreme negative areas with no signs of getting out of there. The first resistance is provided by the 50% Fibo of same retarcement followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.7140.

EUR/USD Testing critical support

The ECB monetary policy meeting and the following press conference brought nothing new on the table except increased volatility. The interest rate remains unchanged and no signs of any timetable for ending the current bond buying program were given. The expected steps are postponed to June and until then the single currency will be dragged by the stronger US dollar.

The EUR/USD pair fell today to its lowest level since January and marked intraday low at 1.2195. As seen on the four hour time frame the price is developing well below its bearish moving averages. RSI and stochastic and located within negative territories but yet there is room for further decline. 

The pair tested major support but succeeded to bounce and currently is trading slightly above it at 1.2106. The 1.2100 level is considered as extremely significant due to the fact that it represents highs from 2015 and 2017. On one hand this could be good turning point with possible further move towards 1.2155 and then 1.2200. But on the other hand breaking below it would open doors for steeper decline with initial target the psychological 1.2000 handle.

AUD/USD Bears are aiming 0.7500 area

The AUD/USD pair tumbled to fresh 2018 lows, down with 0.45% today and currently trading at 0.7561. US bulls are back in game supported by the rising 10-years Treasury yields, which reached the impressive 3.02 %. While Australia is having holiday today, Aussie is conducted by  the US dollar dynamics.
Technically speaking the short term outlook remains bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing well below its moving averages. The 20-day SMA is keeping its bearish slope while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are starting to turn south after staying flat the last two weeks. RSI and stochastic are located with extreme oversold areas however there is scope for further declines.
Last week the pair decisively broke the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement of latest December to January bullish run at 0.7745. During the past two months the price was moving back and forth around it and switching from support to restisrance several times. The above mentioned indicators support additional declines and bears now are aiming the 0.7500 area and thus the same Fibonnacci retracement would be completed at 100%.
The macro agenda is not offering any significant releases and with Australian market closed the US bulls are setting the tone.

USD/JPY Bulls are unstoppable

The USD/JPY pair incredibly rallied today and gained around 100 pips, reaching its highest level since mid February. Safe-haven assets suffered huge selling pressure as the DXY was boosted by the US Treasury yields having marked 90.63, its highest level for over a month.

The preliminary Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for April came above the expectations and meanwhile BOJ's Kuroda pointed out that Japan should continue very strong accommodative policy for some time in order to achieve the 2% inflation goal.

Technically speaking the short term outlook remain bullish until US bull will not fail again. On the four hour time frame the price is developing well above its bullish moving averages. RSI and stochastic are locating within extreme overbought areas and moreover continue to keep upward strength.

Short term support is provided by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest November to March bearish run at 108.50. But having the strong upward traction of the moving averages it seems that the pair will avoid testing of this level and is more likely to continue towards the first resistance at 109.05 which if broke next challenge will be offered by 109.40.

Economic calendar for the week ahead

The last week of April will be full of interesting macro data and financial results in the midst of the new season of reports in the US.

On Monday we can expect  the Markit Manufacturing PMI in Germany and France for April and also the manufacturing and services PMIs for the euro area.  Later on will be released  the manufacturing and services PMIs in the United States.
Tuesday will bring Australia’s CPI, the German IFO assessment and expectations for April and the housing price index with new homes sales figures in the USA.
On Wednesday the most important news for the markets will be data on crude oil reserves in the United States.
Markets in Australia and New Zealand will not work because of the wounded death of all servants and perished in various wars, conflicts, and moratorium missions.
Later in the evening the BoC Governor Poloz will hold a speech.
Thursday will be a very busy day. The GfK Consumer confidence survey for Germany is due.
The most significant event for the day will be the European Central Bank's decision on key interest rates  and additional explanations are expected from the subsequent press conference.
The United States will provide updated data on initial and continuing jobless claims. New Zealand will release information on the country's trade balance in March, as well as imports and exports.
Friday will bring BoJ interest rate decision and a press conference will follow.  Unemployment data will be released from Germany and GDP estimates are due from UK and USA.

Within the week, the more interesting companies from the United States, which will announce their financial results for the first quarter of the year, are: Alphabet, Whirlpool, Caterpillar, Coca-Cola, Sansata Technologies Holding, Xerox, Facebook, Paypal Holdings, Twitter, Visa, Domino’s Pizza and General Motors.