Gold dropped to support zone at $1307

In early August gold was affected by the appreciation of the US dollar. The resistance zone around $1364.30 coincided with the fundamentals and proved necessary pressure on the price. But afterwards followed correction and gold now reached the support zone around $1308.93.

The intraday resistance is now located at $1321.88 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and the major support is seen at $1307.52.

During yesterday’s session gold dropped to $1308.80, but currently is trading around $1314.

Should the price push above the intraday resistance, the commodity might be seen at $1329.52 (200-day moving average and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement). If pushing downwards below the support located at $1309.10, next bears target is $1300-$1295 zone.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD marked a moderate bearish momentum yesterday and hit an intraday low at $1.1131. The short term outlook remains bearish facing $1.1100 level before targeting to $1.1000. The intraday resistance is seen at $1.1180. A clear break above it could take price to neutral trading zone, but only a clear break back above $1.1250 might disrupt the bears after falling from $1.1350. The stronger support is located at $1.1135, where previous lows were marked. The main technical outlook remains neutral. Today’s macro agenda is offering significant data from Europe and US, that could set more clear direction for the pair. 

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EUR/USD

EUR/USD had a moderate bearish momentum yesterday and marked intraday low at $1.1244. The outlook remains in downward direction for testing $1.1200 - $1.1180 area. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.1310. A clear break above it could lead the price to neutral trading zone, but will keep the bullish scenario after breaking above the trend line and testing the key resistance at $1.1400. On the downside, a clear break below $1.1180 would open the door to $1.1080  - $1.1050 area. Overall the technical outlook for EUR/USD remains neutral.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY had another indecisive movement yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term probably with slight bullish signals. The nearest support is located at ¥99.95. A clear break below it could trigger further bearish pressure testing the key support at ¥99.50. The intraday resistance remains ¥100.60, where is located the 200-day exponential moving average. A clear break above this level could trigger bullish pressure for testing ¥101.15 level, but while the pair is below ¥100.60 the outlook remains bearish.

The US marco agenda for today offers plenteous set of data , that will sir the market. Most important is the Jackson Hole Symposium, that starts today and the USD/JPY pair is expected to be under some selling pressure.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD pair continued its bullish momentum yesterday and reached an intraday high at 1.3210. Still the expectations for upward movement remain in the shortest possible time. As it is clearly seen on the four-hour chart, the price tested H4 EMA 200 located in the area of 1.3215. A clear break above that level will trigger bullish pressure for testing 1.3300, but as long as price stays below 1.3500, more likely is the bearish scenario. The intraday support is located at 1.3150. A clear break below it might take the pair in neutral zone testing 1.3100 or lower.

Silver bearish in the short-term

On Monday silver tested $19.15 area, but coudn’t hold the line till closing of the session. Today is trading slightly below $19.00 level, marking an intraday high at $19.09 and low at $18.83. 

Currently the key resistance is located at $19.269 and as long as silver is staying below it, the trend is bearish. Key support is seen at $18.674.

RSI is showing oversold market and is confirming the daily bearish trend. 

As seen on the daily chart, 20, 30 and 55 day EMAs are pointing upwards and in the long term perspective we may expect bulls to come back. In the short term bears are indicating only correction movement of the trend.

USD slightly elevated after Williams’s statement

The US dollar marked slight increase at the end of the week  and bounced from the 8-week low against the euro and Swiss franc. The main reason for this is the statement of the president of the San Francisco Fed - John Williams. According to him, if the central bank keep the interest rates unchanged for too long this could have adverse consequences for the US economy. Therefore, the potential increase in interest rates in September can not be excluded.

On Friday, futures on the federal funds recorded a 53.5 percent chance the Fed to raise interest rates by year end. 

The US dollar index rose on Friday by 0.42 percent to 94,553 points, but finished on a weekly basis with a fall of more than one percent.

The euro slid 0.3 percent to 1.1318, after earlier reaching 8-week high at 1.1368. The dollar rose half a percent against the Swiss franc to 0.9589 after earlier marking a low at 0.9532.

EUR/USD hit fresh new eight-week high

On Wednesday session the single currency was trading higher against the US dollar without being affected by the positive US data on labor market and factories. Federal Reserve's meeting minutes additionally stirred the market spirit. 

According to Fed’s minutes, the members of the board left the door open for the next rate hike. It seems that some of the members need more positive data and others support the opinion that the time has come. However, we must consider this meeting as a warning sign for upcoming rate increase, as inflation data is getting closer to Fed’s target. 

As a consequence, the EUR/USD pair was trading elevated with around 0.45%, to $1.1366 and hit a new eight-week high. 

USD/JPY

On Wednesday for first time since June the US dollar dropped below the psychological ¥100 level. The current weakness of the US economy and the strong bearish trend in USD/JPY set selling pressure over the pair. The fact that USD/JPY still is standing around 100 and closed at its lowest daily level indicates that the direction is in favor of the Asian currency. 

Yesterday USD/JPY tried to push higher, reached an intraday high at ¥101.15, but later on plummeted down and closed lower at ¥100.24. During today’s early trading hours hit ¥99.63. 

The expectations are bearish for testing the area  99.50 - 98.80. The nearest resistance is seen at ¥101.15. A clear break above it could take price to neutral zone for testing ¥100.65 or higher, but yet at this phase bearish scenario is preferable.

GBP/USD

During yesterday’s trading the GBP/USD pair continued its momentum down and formed a bottom at $1.2865. Today is expected higher volatility on the pair as later on the day will be released July’s CPI data. In the early trading hours no significant change was marked and the pair is hovering around $1.2900 area.

The bias remains bearish for re-testing $1.2790. First resistance remains around $1.2950. A clear break above it could take price to neutral trading zone testing 1.3000 or higher, but we would better remain in the camp of bears in this phase. On the downside, a clear break and daily close below 1.2790 could lead to further bearish pressure for testing $ 1.2700 - $1.2650.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD was quite hesitant yesterday. The macro agenda  had nothing to offer in Europe, so the focus was on the US data release. The Empire State Manufacturing Index disappointed with weaker than expected numbers – 4.21 points in August, comparing with the expected 1.99 points. 

The single currency took the advantage of the US dollar weakness and was trading slightly higher, moving towards the two week high, marked on August 12 at $1.224. Anyway coudn’t reach it. The session opened at $1.1167 and closed only 15 pips higher.

Currently the bias remains neutral but with more likely bearish scenario. The intraday support is located at $1.1135, matching with the 55-day EMA. A clear break below that area could trigger further pressure over bears  to test $1.1050. On the upside, the trend line resistance and $1.1250 remain key resistance levels.

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USD/CHF possibly uptrending

The NFP release last week pushed higher the US dollar and this fuelled the USD/CHF pair upwards. The pair conquered the support lying at 0.9848, matching with the 38.2% Fibo, drawn from May’s 2015 low to November’s 2015 high. Now this level turned to be resistance and the CHF is somehow pressured and is marking lower highs. 

Meanwhile we are facing higher lows as well. May’s 2016 low is uptrending with June’s 2015 low and crossed the 61.8% Fico retracement. So in the long-term USD is fascinating and is showing strength above 0.9648.

In case of breaking below 50.00% Fibo retracement at  0.9700 most probably we must look around for touching the support line at 0.9630. Going below this level might drag the pair below 0.9500 area.

A rolling stone

The New Zealand dollar showed excellent performance during today’s trading against the greenback, ticked 1.3% higher during the London session and reached an intraday high at $0.7264, letting go all resistance levels. The main engine that powered today the NZD/USD pair was the expected meeting of RBNZ and the anticipation of rate cut to new historical low of 2%. 

RSI was showing overbought market in the early afternoon hours, but currently is indicating slight bearish trend. On the other hand momentum is welcoming bulls back. 

Major resistance remains 0.7030, even bulls conquered it for shortly. 

Still bulls are on run as long as hold above the 50-day moving average. Bears could kill with kindness the picture only if the pair near the support line at 0.7190.

GBP/JPY take offence at BoE's innuendo

Given that the Bank of England unrolled last week authentic set of stimulus, which exceeded even the most courageous expectations, it was not a surprise that this fact brought the GBP/JPY pair down and even below the Brexit low. The sterling weakened considerably and reached daily low at 132.20, but later on spilled slowly back to 133.17.
This week started with a gap above this point and the pair has found a new near term support which turned to be the old resistance.
While considering the sterling as quite bearish at present, we also must keep an eye on Bank of Japan as the expectations for stimulating monetary policy is still on the agenda.
Main resistance now is seen at 134.15 , which is another shift but from prior support to resistance.

Gold is slightly down by NFP data, but marking higher lows

Last Friday pushed XAU/USD down with around 1.7%. Of course main reason is the unexpectedly nice US Non-Farm Payroll data, which fueled US dollar’s strenght.

Even so, the news didn’t bring down the yellow metal, as prices are marking higher lows, which should indicate market participants not to sell yet.
Strong resistance is situated around $1,340 area, matching with the 200-day MA.

Currently the main support is located at $1,332 level along with 61.8$ Fibo retracement, drawn form July’s low at $1,310 to August’s high at $1,3670. In the afternoon hours gold bounced off that level to currently trade around $1,335 zone. 

If breaking above $1,346 (38.2% Fibo), next target is seen arounf $1,365 area. 

If XAU/USD is likely to close below $1,331, bears will drag prices to $1,320 area. 

Gold trap in my sight

Gold formed a double-top pattern on the daily chart, touching the $1,367 line and currently is seen around $1,360 area.

Key support remains at $1,340 zone and as long as gold is staying above it bulls will run upstairs.

A possible break below this level could drag XAU/USD to 61.8% Fibo.

Looking upwards pushing above $1,367 could lead gold to highs at $1,380 area. A slight chance for distraction of the current trend might be found only if gold goes below $1,310. 

RSI nears the overbought area, but still showing bulls strength.

Oil's Bohemian Rhapsody

Is this the real oil market life?
Is this just fantasy?
Caught in a landslide
No escape from reality.

Good gains marked on Wednesday
Then steep lows seen on Thursday
Open your eyes
Look up to the skies and see
That the global market remains oversupplied
But crude needs no sympathy
Because it easy comes, easy goes
A little high, little low
Anyway the wind blows
But sometimes a bit matters.

Traders, worries are taking control
Over the global economy slow
Asia, Europe, Brexit uncertainty blow.

The highest OPEC output just killed the mood
Pulled the trigger and now oil cartel limit is dead
The new monthly report will send shivers
With latest output figures
That will be thrown away
after another day.

Do not expect prices to rebound
To some major extent over the next month.

Prices aching all the time
Could be seen in lows at $35
But leave it all behind, as near-term range might be at $45-$50.

Nothing really matters
Anyway the wind blows.

Silver will try just a little for a few dollars more

Bears have occupied today’s trading mood of XAG/USD. In the early trading hours silver broke the resistance at $20.65 and pushed higher to mark intraday high at $20.703. Then direction turned to downside and currently is hovering around $20.40 area.

If closing above $20.65, bulls will try just a little for a few dollars more. Next resistance levels are seen at $20.80 and $21.12.

On the other hand, if closing below $20.35, XAG/USD pair would be dragged to support levels at $20.05, $19.94 and $19.16.

Meanwhile the 20, 30 and 55 day EMAs are streaming upwards noisier to underline the bullish sound. So the current downward blue mood should be considered only as a short-term correction.

USD/JPY is sparking something to breakthru

The USD/JPY pair is currently located above the support line at 100.678, where yesterday was marked the intraday low. In case of closing lower than yesterday’s high at 102.793, the pair would finish the session composing an inside bar. Anyway, the macro agenda for tomorrow will provide the NFP data for the last month and it is going to be the greatest market mover for the greenback pairs.

Meanwhile a falling wedge is in process of forming, as seen on the H1 chart. Withing the next two days we might witness bulls targeting to 102-103 area. Resistance is seen at 102.646 and support is located at 100.678. In the early trading hours RSI was showing oversold market, but currently is around 40% and confirms the bullish price movement.  
In short term USD/JPY is consolidating ahead of the NFP release, but the pair is sparking something to breakthru.

US dollar fade out lines

The US dollar is going deeper down,
along with the poor GDP noticing,
the dovish Fed’s spelldown
and against the plethora of G20 under performing.

The clock is ticking some couple of tocks
and markets will re-estimate next Fed’s knocks.

Chipping around, kicked by EUR’s rally towards 1.12 mark
where EUR/USD pair more than a month couldn’t park.
RBA failed to weaken the Australian dollar
and the yen was seen in a new fresh 3-week spur.

These are the days – it never rains but it pours.
Circumstances laugh under the pressure the USD is cracking.
US dollar index as well regrettably sours
and in 3 months the biggest fall is posting.

Over the greenback the shadow grows, but shall it leave broken pieces to this priceless ballet?