Gold above $ 1200 handle

During the past two weeks gold suffered from the rising expectations that Fed could soon increase interest rates and the stronger US dollar. Yesterday the closing price settled to three and a half month low at $ 1207 and is on track to mark the largest monthly decline since November 2015. Yesterdays also was hit the lowest level since February 17 at $ 1199.60.

Today gold is slightly relieved because of the Asian markets fluctuation. In the morning the yellow metal conquered the psychological $ 1200 handle and reached $1214.60.

Bulls might be flashed in case of breaking above $ 1218 level, where is located the major resistance, which is acting as 100-day EMA. Looking downwards key support is seen at $ 1190 (55-day EMA).

European stocks moved in green despite thin volumes

European stocks started the new week with good gains, marking fifth consecutive positive trading session. As stock exchanges in UK and US remained closed throughout the day and macro agenda offers nothing special, the trading volume was significantly lower.
The attention of market players this week will be mainly focused on the forthcoming data on US unemployment rate and the change in non-farm payrolls as well as ECB meeting on Thursday.
During the last trading session German’s DAX 30 index added 0.46% to finish at 10 333.23, while the French CAC 40 index increased 0.32% to 4 529.40 and the pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 0.43% to 3,088.50.
Among the best performers that moved DAX 30 up are Volkswagen AG, Daimler AG and Bayer AG, as their shares rose respectively by 1.70%, 1.52% and 1.30%. On the downside with biggest daily losses rolled Thyssenkrupp AG, Siemens AG and Deutsche Post AG downgrading market capitalization respectively with 0.38%, 0.34% and 0.13%.

GBP/USD

During the last week GBP/USD performed tentatively and showed lack of strength.
The pair attempted to rise higher, slipping above the key resistance at 1.4700, but failed to make a clear break upside and closed lower at 1.4604. 

Currently the descending momentum prevails and bears are likely to test 1.4500. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4650, followed by 1.4740, which is the 200-day moving average. 

Looking at the upside, any indicative break above and eventual daily close above 1.47 would awake the bulls and the pair might push towards 1.5000 level.

Crude oil pressured by the strong US dollar

Crude oil prices are moving downwards after both benchmarks WTI and Brent reached the psychological level at $50.00 per barrel for first time since respectively October and November last year. The appreciation of "black gold" could be considered by the Fed as another sign for economy improvement in global aspect, that could support the eventual increase in interest rates in the US in June.  The appreciation itself would hardly be a determining factor in the decision of the central bankers, but that in turn would affect the levels of inflation in the country. Although it is not expected significant reduction of production levels, investors are awaiting the OPEC meeting on Thursday in Vienna, which outcome would impact on quotations of the crude oil.

Today oil prices still suffer from the stronger US dollar, though it was slightly supported by the beginning of the summer season in the US, which coincides with the US crude production decline to its lowest level since September 2014.

Today's trend is a continuation of the market situation from the end of last week. In the morning WTI slipped with 12 cents to trade at $49.21 and Brent fell with 21 cents to $49.11.

On Wednesday will be released the data by the American Petrolium Institute and on Thursday is due the official government data. And ahead of the OPEC meeting, this week will bring increased volatility on markets. 

Gold, pressure, adrenalina

Since the beginning of the year we witnessed a brilliant golden performance. Up ahead in the distance a shimmering light embraced first quarter and shined through the amazing 15.8% increase.

Last December gold was knocked down, reaching $1050, but quickly recovered and pinned new highs at $1282 in February and $1305 in April.

From technical viewpoint the February rally significantly pushed the price up and set bears calm, as they have been at large for the last two and a half years.

But the fundamental aspect caught traders in a landslide, facing a silhouette of bewilderment, as US economy strongly blows the wind of change. Fed’s rate hike definitely sube la adrenalina.

The sense of a suspense shivered and shadowed. So now gold walks the empty street on the boulevard of broken dreams. The restless stream is now caught up within the sound of silence.

Currently gold prices are under huge selling pressure during the last six sessions.  

The strong support located at the 55-day EMA was conquered and gold split the doubts that for shortly could move up, even hit intraday high at $1234.30. In elevated perspective, the resistance is planted in $1250.00 level and a vision of softly creeping breakout could lead the price towards $1265.00. A step back is very likely to support-turned-resistance at $1243.00.The short term rally could bring some small profits, but gold will loudly break the sound of silence in the long term run.

European stocks closed with strong gains

Since the beginning of the month, European stocks closed significantly elevated and pinned the best performance, despite opening in red on Tuesday.

The British FTSE 100 was up with 1.35% to 6219.26 points, the French CAC 40 leaped 2.46% to 4431.52 points and Euro Stoxx 50 jumped 2.76% to 3013.84 points. Best performed the Italian FTSE MIB with a growth of 3.34% to 17,903.97 points.

Germany’s  DAX climbed 2.33% to finish at 10,057.94 points and marked one-week high at 10,077.50

Technically speaking the index failed to break resistance at 11400 points and now gravitates within the range 9300-11400. Next resistance on upwards is the psychological level at 11700, where it is not excluded a false breakout. Even bulls are seen in a sluggish pace now, the uptrend is still in place. Eventual downward correction would lead the price to support levels located at 10000, 9300 and 8900.

US stocks strongly uplifted

US stocks recorded strong gains on Tuesday, influenced by the excellent performance of US new home sales in April. 

New home sales surprised with 16.6% jump and thus reached levels not seen from 2008.

Cheered by the news bulls favored the major indices. Dow Jones climbed 1.22% to 17,706.05 points, S&P 500 is up by 1.37% to 2076.06 points and Nasdaq closed higher with 2% to 4861.05 points.

Among the news of the day was the future cooperation of Red Bull with GoPro. Shares of GoPro rose 4.86 % after the news release to 9.71 dollars per share. Technological and financial sector performed best within S& P500. Shares of Visa leaped 2.81% to 79.38 dollars, Morgan Stanley marked a growth of 2.16% and JPM pushed up with 1.7%. 

Technically speaking S&P 500 is extending its upward movement, supported by the liquidity inflows in the economy. The strong rally settled the price above 1900 level. The next resistance is located at the psychological level at 2130. In case of reversal, key support levels might be seen at 1970, 1915 and 1870.

Silver runs out for short

Silver prices dragged slightly down as encountered bears creeping and conquering the key support at $16.31.

Latest peak marked by silver on April 19 at $16.90 was followed by a lower high of $16.63 and since then the short term sentiment turned to bearish.

Currently XAG/USD is trading around $16.255, 1,02% lower, hitting intraday high at 16.455 and low at 16.215.

Key resistance is located around $16.40 and support levels to watch are $16.21 and $16.09.

We witness perfectly incomplete performance, as silver suffers for short. A correction is taking a shape, which is seen by 20- and 55-day EMAs.

Elevated perspective

Considerable polling excitement has engaged UK lately, but most remarkable stir on markets came from yesterday’s Brexit poll results, showing that Britains prefer to remain member of the European Union. 
The sterling outperformed during the overnight trade and GBP/USD was trading within the range of 1.4478-1.4497. The British pound seized this optimistic opportunity and today is looking from elevated perspective. Currently GBP/USD is trading at 1.4579, 0.66% higher and conquered Monday’s high at 1.4548.
Ahead of BoE officials speak in the UK Parliament about the central bank’s latest quarterly Inflation Report before the Treasury Select Committee, the pair might be seen even more elevated and surpass the 1.46 mark.

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USD/JPY uplifted

Japan's GDP figures were released earlier this morning. During the first quarter GDP registered 0.4% against the forecasted 0.1%. On annual basis the growth is 0.7% compared to expected 0.3%.

Japan runs the risk of slipping into technical recession, which will lead to eased monetary policy. This will be of support to USD/JPY, as will weaken the yen.Now upon these better figures the hopes for BoJ’s further stimulus are fading away. 

On Tuesday session US dollar went up to 109.65, which was its highest level since April 28, supported by the CPI positive mood.

On today’s session the pair rebounded from lows at 108.72 and currently is trading at 109.53. Short term sentiment remains bullish, as next bulls challenge is 109.90.

Golden Fed minutes

Gold is chasing third highest monthly level today, supported by the US equities crumble and the creeping US dollar.

Gold hiked 0.50% and reached and intraday height at 1283.80. Still the psychological mark $1.300 from 2nd of May stands tall even though during the past sessions we witnessed a strong objection on the highway to never. Last week gold faced some slight losses, but emerged above $1.260.

Main engine to set golden direction lately is the US dollar and both assets run to opposite corners. Currently the greenback is shivering upon the skyfall of Fed minutes tomorrow. 

US Stocks sharply elevated

Major US stock indices were trading sharply elevated on Monday amid the weak economic data and rising oil prices, which mainly drove the market.
The positive mood came largely from the news that Warren Buffett has bought $ 9.8 million worth of Apple shares in first for Berkshire Hathaway. The conglomerate, run by Warren Buffet acquired its stake at average price of $109 a share.
Apple’s shares bounced from 1 year low and were trading 3.71% higher to $93.88 per share.
Nasdaq finished 1.22% higher, to 4775.46 points,Dow Jones hiked 1.00% and closed at 17,710.23 points, while S & P 500 added 0.98% to finish at 2066.66 points.

EUR/USD enjoys the silence

EUR/USD skipped to hang with grades last week and continued falling down to edge weak.

The pair still fall on some minor fundamentals and couldn’t colour inside the lines.

Eurozone GDP figures flashed market participants to leap across these undefeatable odds.

Well to keep the price tag and take the cash back, they preferred to sell. 

And the price echoed in depths of 1.1300, but failed to close below.

Despite closing below midline Bollinger bands, still bears disturb the silence even staying calm.

Closing below 1.1265 and turning it into resistance will confirm decline because it will form the lower bottom and this level of support will become resistance. 

The next level of support might be seen at 1.1142 and resistance at 1.1449.

With the new week come EUR/USD was slightly uplifted, but still remains within the sound of silence, due to lack of top-tier events.  

Silver lining

Lately the volatility of forex market is fading away and is drifting further everyday.
Trading is getting more difficult and unprofitable, as the ratio risk profit is worsening.

During 2016 we’ll witness a twist of risk appetite and all market participants will turn to safe-heaven assets, such as precious metals. Every cloud has a silver lining.
The reducing carbon emissions through renewable energy  should lead to increased demand for silver in related industries (eg use in solar cells). 

Yesterday silver benefited from the weaker US dollar and the uplifted gold and this pushed XAG/USD to 17.60, where was marked the intraday high. Afterwards a slight pull back was seen, but after all it’s just a matter of time before go higher, targeting 18.00 level. This area is a little bit frustrated, as recently resistance has checked in there. Once bulls conquer this level, it should be translated into markets as buy-and-hold pattern.

CAD uplifted by rising oil prices

The loonie bounced gainst the US dollar today and marked a one-week high during today’s session, mostly supported by the rising oil prices.

USD/CAD moved down with 0.51% and currently is trading at 1.2843.

The unexpected decline of US weekly crude oil inventories warmly hugged the Canadian dollar. 

The report that was released today shows that reserves had fallen by 3.4 mln barrels in previous week. Surprisingly these figures trapped traders and this failure turned into advantage for oil prices.

WTI futures traded with 3% higher $46 per barrel. Brent jumped with  3.56% to trade at $47.14 per barrel, twisting earlier in the day around $45.20.

European stock markets closed in green

On Tuesday session, stock markets in Europe were trading elevated, extending the  strong performance since the beginning of the week. Major stock indices closed higher, largely influenced by the sharp rise commodity and oil prices.

German DAX 30 index closed 0.65% higher, ending the day at 10 045.44, while FTSE 100 finished with a gain of 0.68% at 6 156.65. Best performers within DAX 30 index were Volkswagen AG, RWE AG and Deutsche Bank AG, as their shares rose respectively by 4.22 %, 2.46 % and 2.42 %. 

Technically speaking , the index failed to break resistance at 11400 and now gravitates within 9300-11400. Next resistance in the upward is a psychological level at 11700, where is not excluded a false breakout. Currently the bulls remain calm, but the uptrend is still in place. A possible downward correction would lead a price to the levels of support located respectively at 10000, 9300 and 8900.

Bulls at large

Gold broke the downward trend that started since mid-March 2015 when the annual low was pinned at 1,046.77. At present, the price of the precious metal found support around the psychological level of 1,060.31 dollars, but successfully broke the previous lows located around 1,100 dollars. The continuation of the movement conquered the nearest resistance at 1,252.31 dollars.

During today’s session bulls are at large and sent the pair to daily high at 1,271.70, while the low was marked at 1,2580.30. If closing above 1,268 we will witness reflections on 1,2712, 1,285, 1,298. Closing below 1,258 will drag the pair into the depths of 1,252, 1,248, 1242.

Yen weakens

The yen fell against the basket of major currencies as a result of the intention of the Japanese government to intervene in the foreign exchange market in case the yen strengthen. 

During the Asian session today the US dollar managed to advance to the level at 108,885 after previously had reached its lowest point for the past 18 months, falling to 105,546. 

This happened as a consequence of BoJ’s decision to keep the monetary policy unchanged which was posted at the last meeting of the bank at the end of April. 

Now, however, the comments of Japan’s finance minister Taro Aso weakened the yen, which in turn contributed to strengthening of USD/JPY. Currently the pair is trading at 109.10, as earlier peaked at 109.28. If the resistance at 109.30 could be conquered, the pair might push higher to 109.70. 

Disappointing jobs report dragged the US dollar

The US economy created 160,000 new jobs in April, according to the latest report of BLS.

These figures did’t meet the expectations for an increase of over 200,000 jobs outside agriculture. The unemployment rate remains unchanged at 5%.

One of the few good news is that average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% to $25.53, while on yearly base increased by 2.5%, compared with 2.3% in the previous year.

The release of NFP data dragged the US dollar with 40 pips down and EUR/USD pair climbed towards 1.1480. Next week will bring quite unsignificant macro data, which will support the upside movement of the pair.

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Sterling hovers around $1.45 after set of weak PMIs

Business activity in the services sector in the UK has deteriorated in April, posting uninspired start of the second quarter with hitting lowest levels since February 2013.

UK services PMI for April, according to latest Markit release, shows that the British economy is further slowing down, noting a drop to 52.3 points in April, down from 53.7 points in March amid the expected 53.5 points.

A weaker PMI underlines the additional weakness in economic growth, that indicates it will slow down in the short term.

So finally, within this week the three PMIs (construction, manufacturing and services) fell short of the expectations and thereby GBP is under selling pressure.

GBP/USD is currently trading around 1.45, as daily low was hit at 1.4444. If the pair continue to the downside, the pair most likely will break through the support located at 1.4360. On the upside a key resistance is located at 1.4670.

Twitter in downbeat mode

On Tuesday the shares of Twitter (TWTR) tumbled to worst ever bottom at $13.90 which is 46.5% below its IPO price since the company became public in 2013.

Briefly the shares of the social network were traded at $13.90, but later the price rose slightly to a closing price of $14.01.

Thus, the market capitalization of the company tumbled to $9.7 bln against $14 bln last week – ahead of the financial statements for the first quarter release.

Last week Twitter reported a slowdown in revenue growth. Especially frustrating for investors proved to be the slower growth in advertising revenue. During the first three months of the year, advertising revenues increased by 37% to $595 mln. An year earlier was reported an increase of 48%.

Since the beginning of the year the company's shares are down by 40%  and this is almost 50% below the IPO price of $26. In December 2013, just a month after its listing, Twitter recorded a  peak of $74.73.

But for now one thing is sure – investors fret over this downbeat mode.

AUD/USD down with 2.3%

The aussie fell against the major currencies after RBA’s decision to cut interest rates.

The currency was subjected to sales, falling to 0.7555 right after the news sails .

Last week the Australian dollar was under tension due to disappointing data on inflation.

This led to the most sharp daily spears for the past three years. 

The decision of the central bankers was somewhat expected by market partakers

after CPI fell by 0.2% in the first quarter of the year,

based on expectations of growth with the same figure.

Thereupon AUD/USD was softly creeping, along with bulls slowly retreating.

Planted in the daily lows, aussie’s weakness grows.

Around 0.7490 today the pair was hovering with 2.30% weakness showing.

The strong support at 0.7560 held the pair and until trading above it, will grow higher.

Bulls warning is flashing with 0.7640 level targeting.