USD/JPY Lower

USD/JPY is trading lower today with current market price 106.60 amid the rising scandal between the Prime minister Abe and the Financial Minister Taro Aso regarding the sale of a state owned property on unfair low price. This issue obviously supported the Japanese Yen and during the early trading hours the pair marked daily low at 106.35 and as seen now it very far from this point.
Technically speaking the short term outlook for the pair remain neutral to bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing along with the flat 100-day SMA while the 200-day SMA is showing bearish slope and is providing dynamical resistance at 107.60. The 20-day SMA has started to turn north, offering first support at 106.35, where the price bottomed today. RSI is located directionless around its 60, while stochastic displays strong bearish momentum.

If closing below the daily low the pair would be poised to extend its decline towards the horizontal support at 106.00. Looking to the upside, bulls are thrilled first by the resistance at 107.10 and higher at 107.60. 

 

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USD/CHF Above 0.9500

The power awakens for the US dollar while the single currency suffered huge drop today. As it was expected the ECB kept the interest rate unchanged but removed from the statement the phrase of needing to extend QE if conditions worsen. The euro retreated from its recent location and dragged the Swiss franc lower.

But at this time the USD/CHF broke the resistance at 0.9470 and pinned fresh new high at 0.9518 and currently is trading at 0.9415. On the four hour time frame the price is developing well above its moving averages. RSI and stochastic are located within extreme overbought areas and both are showing strong upward momentum.

Next significant territory for the pair is 0.9570 which if bulls succeed to conquer will be eyeing the key level at 0.9600 and higher around 0.9650.

GBP/JPY Found resistance at 23.6% Fibo

Since late August 2017 the GBP/JPY pair entered into bullish channel which development the bears decided put an end. During the first days of February the pair pinned a remarkable high at 156.60, a level that was abounded after the Brexit vote. From then on the bears came into game with overs 1000 pips and led the pair towards the psychological hurdle at 145.00.

As seen on the four hour time frame the price bounced from the above mentioned critical level but found resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest February to March downward slope at 147.70. On the same chart the 20-day SMA is slowly turning  its direction towards north. RSI and stochastic are located slightly above their mid-lines and are also heading north.

Resuming the uptrend seems to be elusive now as bulls should work hard first to get closer to the 38.2% Fibo where around the pair spent some time for consolidation. Although the indicators on the four hour time frame are hinting bullish outlook this will be short lived. The BoJ’s rate decision on Thursday will support the Japanese Yen’s strength while the Sterling remains weak and this combination will define the further development of the pair.

NZD/USD Breakout from the bearish channel

Since mid February the NZD/USD pair entered into bearish channel, which was clearly broken today. The Kiwi is currently trading at 0.7293 having gained 0.92% for the day. 

The greenback’s weakness was initiated last Thursday with Trump ‘s proposal on iron and aluminium tariffs, which was accepted as a trade war.

Technically speaking the short term outlook remains neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing well above its bullish 20-day SMA, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are staying flat around respectively 0.7300and 0.7308. RSI is nearing the overbought area bust has eased just below its 70 level. Stochastic is showing strong upward momentum and crossed its 80 level. 

First resistance is provided by the 200-day SMA at 0.7308 and next comes at 0.7340. The downside is supported by 0.7280 (resistance turned into support) followed by the daily low at 0.7242.

EUR/USD Hesitant around 1.24

EUR/USD jumped over the psychological hurdle at 1.2400 having marked 0.51% up for the day and currently is trading at 1.2405. The pair took advantage of the talks on North Korea’s denuclearization and ignored the political concerns in Italy. 

Technically speaking the short term outlook remains neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing above its bullish 20-day SMA, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are staying flat around respectively 1.2330 and 1.2344. RSI is showing strong upward momentum and is nearing the overbought area. Stochastic is located within positive territory but had eased around its 80 level. 

To confirm the bullish bias the pair will have to be more decisive and break through the resistance and ex support  at 1.2450. Otherwise some consolidation is expected before next big catalyzer. 

The downside is supported by 1.2360 followed by a strong support around 1.2270 (the post Italian elections low).

USD/CAD Above 1.2800

Since the beginning of the week the  US bulls demonstrate self-confidence and strength, which finally led the USD/CAD pair to new fresh two-month top at 1.2867. Meanwhile WTI marked two week low and this this slump has affected the Canadian dollar.
On the four hour time frame the price is developing well above its bullish moving averages with current market price 1.2850. RSI and stochstic are located within extreme overbought territories and both has lost directional strength.
The bulls might need to take some fresh breath before next upleg and according to indicators on the same chart USD/CAD is entering in consolidation phase.
An increased byuing interest could lead the pair towards the key resistance at 1.2900, which is broken might open doors for testing the 1.2920 (50% Fibo of 2017 decline) area where the pair failed to conquer several time during last three months in 2017.
The downside is supported by 1.2800 and lower at 1.2730 (38.2% of same Fibo).
The macro agenda for the day offers very supportive data for the greenback, so I expect bullish continuation after short consolidation around 1.2850.