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United we stay stronge Vs The triumph of a corrupt country

While I was surfing on the forex markets my senses shifted to the live-going ceremony for the commencement of the Bulgarian Presidency of the Council of the European Union.

In fact I am extremely puzzled how this has started at all, having nine protest in Sofia today, blocked city centre and several bomb threats at the airport. Adding to this picture the extremely brutal murders with vague sequel that happened last days. Too much rebels were about to kill the enthusiasm of the 201∞  for some other Bulgarians. And yes, 8 is replaced with the symbol for infinity because our corrupt politicians think that some six months can make them gods and take advantage of endless wealth on account of the EU.

Back to the ceremony……Donald Tusk broke the boring and put-up atmosphere on this meant to be a classic ceremony. His 5 minutes speech was in fluent Bulgarian and admirations! He showed an extremely good knowledge of our history, poets, even quoted the great author Ivan Vazov, whose name is standing at the National Theatre where the ceremony took place. I learned something new - a Bulgarian actor took place on Game of Thrones. Mr Tusk, the real game of thrones is happening right here, right now. 

The beat goes on with better than expected speech of Juncker who honestly shared that he was is in a quite good mood in 2007 when he supported the accession of Bulgaria to the European Union. Well it seems now he is not sorry for this, because likes too much the Bulgarian shopska salad and some other culinary delights. 

While he shared his admirations to the mystery of Bulgarian voices  which sound the Cosmos, lots of Bulgarians believe that their voices now should be heard. 

All of Europe is aware of the fact that the most corrupt country takes over the presidency of the EU. What our PM said is that without the Lord we can not do anything. Well his Lord is the EU investments and development programs that support the underworld.

Music plays, fireworks explode and shimmers. The only thing I could say now is: Happy people bee(r) united! Nevertheless how you feel and in what reality you live!

And the most proper anthem now is not the Ode to joy, but Wake me up (when it is all over). 

* United we stay strong is the slogan for the presidency and the Bulgarian Parliament, which is quite irrelevant. By my opinion. 

USD/CAD Could surge higher

The grennback’s strength is vanishing and today is down against its major rivals. Meanwhile it has still outperformed the Canadian dollar. The USD/CAD pair is moving higher this week and as seen on the four hour time frame tested the resistance provided by the 50% Fibonacci retracement of latest bullish run at 1.2485. The price is now developing between turning to the upside 20-day SMA and yet bearish 100-day and 200-day SMAs. Stochastic is located within extreme overbought area, but yet is aiming north. RSI is seen slightly above its mid-line and has lost directional strength. 

Adding to this picture the failure of Loonie to track the surging oil prices, the conclusion comes to unsustainable belief on oil’s further rally. And in this case the USD/CAD pair is quite undecided and hesitant. 

Technically speaking the pair should break to above the 1.2050 – 1.2515 resistance area in order to bring back bulls in the game.

  

EUR/USD Bears are aiming 1.1875

EUR/USD dropped today and marked a two week low at 1.1915, a level that has not been visited since late December and down with 0.30% for the day.

The greenback’s rally is shuffling now. The strength given by Fed's speakers yesterday do not weight today as softer than expected macro data put an halt on US dollar’s demand.

EUR/USD was pressured by the initial support provided by th 50% Fibonacci retracement of last week’s bullish run at 1.1903. As seen on the four hour time frame the pair bounced of this support and is currently trading at 1.1933. However on the same chart the 20-day SMA has turned sharply to south and the price is developing well below it. RSI and stochastic are located within extreme oversold territories and both have lost directional strength.  

Additional declines are expected toward the 61.8% retracement of same rally (1.1875) in case the pair returns back to 50% Fibo, coinciding with the 100-day SMA .

GOLD Correction to reinforce bulls

Spot Gold started the new week in smooth mood, having quite tight daily range. The US dollar surprised markets with strength after poor US jobs data, released last Friday that was not affected by the expected rate hikes approaching this year.

As seen on the four hour time frame, the XAU/USD pair is developing well above its bullish moving averages. RSI and stochastic got out of their extreme overbought areas and had lost directional strength, but yet remain on higher levels. Given all above it seems that this corrective phase is going to call back the bulls. The precious metals stands above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest upleg (at $1305) and the initial support at $1313 (Friday’s low) is untouched by the bears. A deeper correction  might follow only in case of testing the 38.2% of same Fibo at $1292, but not lower. 

USD/CAD dropped to fresh multi-month lows

USD/CAD plummeted today and dropped to lowest level since late September 2017. The pair was set on huge selling pressure, with over 150 pips down for the day, after the disappointing NFP data form US, while in Canada the unemployment rate dropped to 5.7%.

Technically speaking, the short term outlook for the pair remain neutral to bearish. On the four hour time frame the price is moving well below its bearish moving averages. RSI and stochastic are located within extreme oversold areas, with the first starting to retreat and the second has lost directional strength. As seen on the same chart, after marking the multi months low at 1.2351 the pair found support at the 61.8% Fibo of latest September to November bullish run.This is very significant level and in case of breaking it to below, the pair will be poised to extend its decline towards the psychological 1.2300 handle. During the upcoming sessions we may expect a corrective phase, before USD/CAD takes new direction. 

  

Gold is rising

After the corrective slide yesterday, Gold is again up today and gains traction above $1318. The US dollar was set on pressure and is trading lower for second time during last three sessions despite the upbeat employment figures. Market players stayed indifferent on yesterday’s FOMC meeting minutes, for as much as March 2018 rate hike odds have hovered around 70% for the last month. Against this background the demand for the precious metal is rising.

Technically speaking the short term outlook remains bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is moving above all its moving averages,that are keeping north direction. RSI and stochastic are showing strong bullish momentum, both above their mid-lines. 

The first challenge for XAU/USD is seen at $1321(January 2nd’s high) and next one is the $1334 level, which will open doors for testing the September 5 top at $1344. On the flip slide caution comes with the psychological $1300 mark.