The USD/JPY pair closed the week at 111.50, after had marked
highest level for April at 111.77 and posted gains for second consecutive
week.
The continuation of the upside move seems now to be limited due to the falling
yield on 10-year Treasury along with the neutral BOJ stance, that noted
positive growth, but downgraded the inflation forecast for the current year.
On the daily chart the 20-day SMA has turned to north. RSI and stochastic are
placed within extreme overbought area and are keeping the bullish tone. The pair has crossed
to above the 200-day SMA, whilst the 100-day SMA has slightly turned to south
and is currently acting as dynamic resistance at 112.65.
How the pair will develop its direction will depend on how the market respond
on Fed's monetary policy outcome next Wednesday. A bullish breakout will be
more likely expected in the case of confirmation on the rate hike for next June.
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